Research & News
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Domestic economic growth is expected to be solid on continued supply chain rearrangement, the resulting domestic industrial production, and supportive fiscal stimulus. There is no recession in our forecast. With the Fed remaining data-dependent regarding the fed funds rate, we believe the likelihood is diminishing for multiple rate… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 16, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a note on the recent plunge in global cotton prices, which has been driven by surging output in Brazil. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 15, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a quick note on the aftermath of the attempted assassination of former President Trump, although we caution that it is still too early to really understand how the incident could affect US politics and policy. We next… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – A New Factor for Gold Prices (July 15, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The standard regression model is as follows: Y = α +β(X) + ε Where Y is the dependent variable, X is the independent variable, α is the intercept, β is slope and ε is the error term. No model, no matter how many independent variables are added, can… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 12, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! Equities are relatively muted as investors await earnings reports. In sports news, the USMNT is looking to hire Jürgen Klopp as head coach. Today’s Comment will begin with a discussion of the latest CPI report, then will explore why small… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 11, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! S&P 500 futures have cooled this morning following favorable inflation data. In sports news, England defeated the Netherlands in the semifinals and will now play Spain in the Euro final. Today’s Comment will begin by examining the significant role that… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 10, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! Equity futures are off to a great start ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s second day of testimony. In sports news, Spain has successfully knocked out France in the Euro semifinal. Today’s Comment discusses how Powell has opened the door… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 9, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with new color on the dangerous China-Philippines standoff in the South China Sea. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including an impending shift in investment strategy… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 8, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with new data illustrating just how broadly and sharply trade tensions with China are evolving around the world. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including key… Read More »