by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with a discussion of the ECB’s decision to raise rates and its potential implications for other central banks. We then turn to the ongoing talks of renewing the USMCA before covering SpaceX’s anticipated IPO, and the latest developments in US-Iran peace negotiations. As always, we conclude with a review of recent domestic and international economic data.

Global Pivot: The sudden surge in inflation has paved the way for central banks to consider raising interest rates in a bid to restore price stability. On Thursday, the European Central Bank made history as the first monetary authority within the G-7 to announce a rate hike of 25 bps, raising its deposit rate to 2.25%. The decision comes in direct response to soaring energy prices, which have driven inflation across the bloc to three-year highs. By raising rates, the ECB may be paving the way for a shift in global monetary policy from a dovish lean to a more hawkish stance.

• The ECB’s decision reflects a broader trend among central banks navigating the aftermath of the Iran war amid heightened concerns over potential pass-through effects from rising energy prices. The Bank of Japan is projected to follow suit at its next meeting, while the Bank of England is anticipated to implement a rate hike in September. Meanwhile, an increasing number of Federal Reserve officials have openly signaled their readiness to support tighter monetary policy should inflation continue to accelerate.
• The Bank of Japan and the ECB have shown the greatest willingness to raise rates due to their heightened vulnerability to an energy shock stemming from the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Both regions source a disproportionate share of their oil from the Middle East, leaving them very exposed to the risks of a prolonged conflict. The US and Canada, by contrast, enjoy greater energy independence, explaining why both central banks are expected to exercise more patience before committing to a rate hike.
• The potential policy pivot is likely to reverberate across bond markets and exchange rates. Rising short-term rates have historically acted as a floor for long-term yields during expansions, and a similar dynamic is expected to play out here. Exchange rates have proven particularly sensitive to shifts in Fed policy expectations with fears that the conflict could force a rate hike providing a tailwind for the dollar.
• The ECB’s decision signals how central banks intend to respond to inflationary pressures from the conflict in Iran. Countries most exposed to oil price shocks are expected to tighten first, while those with greater energy independence are likely to be more patient. A resolution could take hikes off the table, though the bar for cuts remains considerably higher than before the conflict, likely requiring clear evidence that the inflation spike is transitory rather than structural.

USMCA Trade Talks: The US has entered trade talks with Mexico and Canada as the three nations assess the future of their free trade agreement ahead of the July 1 renewal deadline. Earlier this week, President Trump signaled a potential unwillingness to renew the deal, a stance that could trigger a formal, decade-long withdrawal process and spark a lengthy renegotiation. These comments have introduced significant uncertainty into America’s relationships with its two largest trading partners, elevating the risk of renewed trade tensions.

• While the president has stopped short of saying he wants to leave the agreement, his comments have triggered a push for changes to the deal. On Thursday, the US ambassador to Canada expressed optimism that a deal could be reached, provided that there is no escalation. His optimism appears to be driven by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s push to establish a North American economic bloc, a vision of a unified trade front among the three countries under the existing agreement.
• Despite the optimism, talks to renew the trade agreement are expected to yield a more tailored arrangement as a way to keep the US on board. According to a Canadian trade official, any renewal of the USMCA will likely be accompanied by additional bilateral agreements between Canada and the US. The official also expects Mexico to pursue a similar arrangement. Although it is unclear as to what concessions these countries will make, it does appear that they are more open to appeasing the US than challenging it.
• A central theme emerging from these talks is the push for a unified trade policy. The White House has long sought to align Canada and Mexico with its stance on trade with China, and the current negotiations are expected to address the gaps between the three nations on this front. This alignment may take the form of coordinated restrictions on Chinese investment and trade in strategic industries, as well as tighter controls on sourcing requirements.
• Although the president has raised the prospect of not renewing the USMCA, there is currently little evidence of a planned US withdrawal. While negotiations will likely introduce temporary uncertainty as all sides work toward a new deal, this friction is unlikely to have a lasting impact on markets, provided investors remain confident the agreement will stay in place. Any credible signs of a US withdrawal, however, could weigh on market sentiment.

Hottest IPO: SpaceX has seen record demand for its shares leading up to its debut on NASDAQ. On Thursday, the company raised over $75 billion for its IPO, marking the largest stock opening on record. Demand was four times greater than the available supply, demonstrating robust investor interest. This surge partially reflects the inclusion of retail investors, who were allocated over 20% of the shares. The stellar performance suggests that other highly anticipated IPOs, such as Anthropic and OpenAI, may also see strong market demand.

Deal Imminent? The president has decided to call off a planned strike on Iran amid progress in ongoing peace talks. The decision comes as the president indicated that an agreement could be signed as soon as this weekend in Europe. While the details have yet to be released, the president announced that Iran’s Supreme Leader has agreed to a deal. The current arrangement would extend the ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, and provide Iran with sanctions relief contingent on compliance.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with takeaways from the latest CPI report and its implications for monetary policy. We then provide an update on the US-Iran conflict, followed by an analysis of the oil markets. Next, we briefly cover PIMCO’s growing concerns regarding financial weakness, Anthropic’s latest funding round for its AI buildout, and the ECB’s decision to hike interest rates. As always, we conclude with a review of recent domestic and international economic data.

Inflation Problems: Less than a week before Kevin Warsh will chair his first Federal Reserve meeting, policymakers appear to be confronting a renewed inflation problem. The latest CPI report showed headline inflation accelerated to 4.2%, its third consecutive monthly increase and its fastest pace in more than three years. This pickup in inflation is likely to complicate plans for a Fed chair who had previously signaled openness to rate cuts and could instead strengthen the hand of a Federal Reserve Board that has grown more inclined toward further tightening.

• In May, energy prices were the main driver of the latest CPI upturn, reflecting both the Iran-related supply shock and surging power demand from the AI buildout. Gasoline prices jumped 40.5% year over year, while fuel oil and other household energy costs climbed an even steeper 58.9%. Although such extreme moves are likely to normalize over time, a more troubling development is the nearly 6% increase in electricity prices, which appears increasingly tied to the growing power needs of data centers.
• The pickup in inflation is likely to complicate Kevin Warsh’s efforts to set a monetary stance that accommodates the AI buildout. He has argued that the Fed should be willing to hold rates steady and allow a prospective AI‑driven productivity boom to show up in the data. Yet, the recent energy‑price surge associated with that same buildout risks having the opposite effect, forcing Warsh to persuade more hawkish officials to tolerate above‑target inflation in the meantime.

• May’s inflation data is likely to harden the stance of many Fed officials, several of whom only a month ago had pressed the central bank to drop its easing bias and openly entertain the prospect of a rate hike. Market pricing has moved in tandem — overnight rates have swung from implying a 25-50 basis point cut at the start of 2026 to instead assigning a roughly 70% probability to at least one hike by year end at the time of writing.
• While the latest CPI report likely gives the Fed cover to delay any rate cuts, we remain less convinced than fed funds futures that policymakers will deliver a hike this year. The 2023 episode showed the Fed’s willingness to treat a rise in 10‑year yields as a substitute for additional tightening at the front end, plus, given today’s split among officials and the current chair’s leanings, an extended pause looks more likely than an outright hike as the conflict plays out.

Ceasefire in Jeopardy? The US has escalated its military operations in Iran, reflecting growing impatience over stalled negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has retaliated by targeting other Gulf states and signaling its intent to further restrict access to the waterway. The renewed hostilities follow a breakdown in talks that had appeared close to a resolution just weeks earlier. As anticipated, the escalation is likely a strategic effort by both sides to strengthen their bargaining positions and extract additional concessions in forthcoming negotiations.

• Following the latest round of strikes, which lasted roughly four hours before pausing, the president stated that military operations will continue until Iran agrees to peace terms. While several issues remain unresolved, the primary sticking point appears to be US demands that Iran dismantle or relinquish its uranium stockpiles. Iran, in turn, has held firm on securing the unfreezing of approximately $10 billion in assets, along with a ceasefire in Lebanon, as preconditions for any agreement.
• Investors had taken comfort from Washington’s reluctance to abandon the ceasefire, reflecting concerns that a broader escalation could prove difficult to control given Iran’s ability to sustain strikes even after significant damage to its military capabilities. At the same time, although there has been speculation that US forces could reopen the strait with a more substantial ground presence, the White House appears wary of the domestic political backlash that a visible troop deployment could trigger.

• The stop‑start pattern of strikes between the two sides has added to the volatility in crude, but it has also helped prevent prices from revisiting the peaks seen at the onset of the conflict. One area we have been watching closely is the spread between futures and physical barrels. While that spread has narrowed, the move appears driven less by easing tensions and more by buyers pulling forward deliveries amid concerns about future disruptions, even as some suppliers continue to face resistance in selling into Asian markets.
• While the worst may be behind us, we are reluctant to say that oil prices will normalize anytime soon. For one, it still appears that the US and Iran will continue to trade strikes even as they hold talks. Second, the spread between crude futures and the physical market suggests that near‑term demand and delivery concerns are outweighing any longer‑term optimism about a lasting deal, leaving room for another step higher in prices if negotiations fail in the coming weeks.

PIMCO Fears: PIMCO has reiterated its warning that a credit loss cycle may be approaching. In its latest outlook, the firm cautions that the AI buildout could leave lower‑quality borrowers particularly exposed to defaults. While credit spreads remain near historical lows, PIMCO flags the growing use of maturity extensions and payment‑in‑kind structures — where interest is paid with additional debt — as key red flags. Even so, there are still no clear, broad‑based signs of credit deterioration at this stage.

AI Debt: Apollo and Blackstone have partnered with Broadcom to help Anthropic finance additional chips for its AI buildout. The deal involves roughly $35 billion to fund purchases of Google‑designed chips that Broadcom helped develop. The arrangement highlights both the growing reliance on credit and the increasingly circular financing needed to support the AI infrastructure boom. While this may bolster near‑term growth, it also reinforces concerns about the longer‑term sustainability of the current investment cycle.

ECB Hawk: The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 bps for the first time in three years, marking a significant shift toward tighter policy. The move comes as the euro area contends with an energy shock that threatens its ability to maintain price stability. Although the hike was largely priced in and initially met with a muted market reaction, it could offer additional support to the euro if the Federal Reserve signals a pause at its meeting next week.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with our thoughts on the growing concerns about AI. We then turn to geopolitics, examining the latest developments in the conflict between the US and Iran. Next, we briefly cover the EU cracking down on Meta, Middle Eastern countries looking to build new oil pipelines, and the latest AI tool developed by Anthropic. As always, we conclude with a review of recent domestic and international economic data.

AI Uncertainty: There are growing concerns about the cash needs of Big Tech companies as they look to build out their AI infrastructure. Over the last few weeks, several high-profile companies have sought to tap equity markets for capital. Private companies SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are moving forward with IPO preparations. Meanwhile, public tech giants like Alphabet have announced new equity offerings, while Meta is also exploring one. The push to issue equity has led to concerns that future earnings may not be enough to justify current valuations.

• Over the past few weeks, several banks have raised concerns about the durability of the AI trade. On Tuesday, Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian noted that while parts of the tech sector remain healthy, a clear shift has emerged since November. Specifically, cash flow conversion and buybacks have slowed, while capex, debt, and equity issuance have increased. Her view aligns with similar warnings from Wells Fargo and JPMorgan that the AI trade is showing signs of frothiness.
• The unease may reflect how readily many tech firms have turned to issuing equity for cash, even though borrowing remains relatively cheap. With corporate bond spreads still well below their long‑term averages, these companies could easily tap the debt markets instead. Their choice to lean on equity issuance suggests that management sees stock as the cheaper form of financing, which can also be read as a signal that they view their shares as fully valued, if not overvalued.
• The recent AI-driven market scare likely highlights growing fragility within growth stocks, driven by an overweight allocation to the technology sector. During Tuesday’s sell-off, equity markets rotated toward more defensive stocks, attracted by their better valuations and the perception that these sectors are more likely to preserve value over the long term. This rotation mirrors similar episodes seen over the past few months, where even minor jitters prompted investors to flee major tech names in search of safety.
• While AI is likely to remain a dominant market narrative, there are emerging signs that its momentum may be moderating. The recent wave of equity issuance by technology firms, while not inherently negative, can be interpreted as opportunistic due to the elevated valuations. Given this context, along with our broader concerns around market fragility, the current environment may present an opportunity for investors to reassess positioning and consider increasing exposure to value-oriented assets.

Mideast Tensions: Developments in Iran suggest that while Middle East tensions remain elevated, energy supply chains are showing resilience. Following Iran’s downing of a US helicopter, the two sides exchanged attacks on Wednesday, highlighting ongoing escalation risks. However, oil prices remained contained, with Pentagon officials signaling improved success in maintaining flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite continued hostilities, these dynamics point to a reduced near-term risk of major supply disruption.

• On Wednesday, the US and Iran exchanged missile strikes following Iran’s downing of a US Apache helicopter, marking a renewed escalation in tensions. The recent clashes come as both sides attempt to break the negotiating impasse and reopen the strait, with US efforts focused on countering Iran’s attempts to assert control over the waterway. The fighting underscores the fragility of the ceasefire, which has been repeatedly tested in recent weeks.
• However, despite ongoing fighting around the strait, US officials have expressed growing confidence in their ability to sustain transit through the waterway. Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted that traffic through the strait is increasing meaningfully and is expected to continue rising. His remarks appeared to reassure markets, contributing to a pullback in oil prices, with WTI futures falling below $90 and holding at those levels despite the overnight escalation in US-Iran tensions.
• While some progress is being made, concerns around oil inventories are building. Since the conflict began, oil markets have been well supplied by increased US exports, subdued Chinese imports, and strategic reserve releases by several governments. These measures have helped cap prices by narrowing the gap between physical tightness and futures pricing. However, the longer the conflict drags on, the greater the risk that these buffers erode and higher oil prices re‑emerge.
• We remain cautiously optimistic that conditions in the Strait of Hormuz will improve. Despite the recent escalation, both sides continue to engage in talks aimed at reopening the waterway, and much of the current posturing appears geared toward extracting additional concessions. This dynamic could invite further tactical attacks, but it also leaves room for a potential breakthrough in the coming weeks. In the meantime, we expect oil prices to remain volatile until a more durable agreement is reached.

Pipeline Alternative: Kuwait is looking to build an additional pipeline that would allow it to transport oil without relying on the Strait of Hormuz. The state-owned oil producer is working with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to increase pipeline capacity, enabling exports to different markets. This effort comes as other Middle Eastern nations have also turned to alternative pipelines to transport their oil. The move signals that oil markets could shift due to the ongoing conflict over the strait.

EU Restrictions: EU regulators have ordered Meta to stop restricting AI rivals from operating within WhatsApp. The European Commission has warned that Meta must restore access for general‑purpose AI assistants within five working days or risk penalties under the bloc’s antitrust rules, potentially including a fine of up to 10% of its global annual revenue. The move underscores the EU’s determination to prevent its digital ecosystem from being dominated by US tech giants and could further strain relations between Brussels and the White House.

Mythos Update: AI provider Anthropic has released a new general-use version of its AI tool, Mythos, which is expected to be less powerful than the original version. The new model, Fabel 5, has similar capabilities to Mythos but includes built-in safeguards that prevent it from carrying out a cyberattack or developing a bioweapon. The release highlights the danger these AI tools pose to the broader world and could eventually pave the way for future regulation.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

On a slow news day, our short Comment today opens with early signs of relatively disappointing demand for World Cup tickets, which could mean the economic stimulus from the event will be less than expected. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets today, including an unexpected interest rate hike in Indonesia and a US blacklisting of more Chinese firms as suppliers to Beijing’s military.

FIFA World Cup: New data from FIFA shows it still has some 15,000 initial tickets available for first-round “group” games during the US-Canada-Mexico tournament, as well as a whopping 176,000 resale tickets available. Analysis by the Financial Times suggests demand is so weak that most resale tickets are being released at a loss after fees.

• The apparent shortfall in enthusiasm could mean that the economic jolt for cities hosting the games will be less than hoped for.
• It could also mean that the surge in hospitality and local government hiring and other preparations for the tournament will be reversed quickly, leading to some potentially weak economic reports for June and July.

China-North Korea: Chinese General Secretary Xi today wrapped up his visit to North Korean paramount leader Kim. While few substantial, concrete agreements or other developments have been noted, one key observation is that there was no significant reference to North Korea’s nuclear program. That suggests Xi no longer sees North Korea’s denuclearization as feasible. In turn, the US may not be able to rely on China for additional pressure on Pyongyang to scrap its nuclear weapons. North Korea will therefore remain a security risk for Asia and its investors.

United States-China: The Pentagon today designated about two dozen additional Chinese companies as suppliers to Beijing’s armed forces. The newly designated firms include tech giants Alibaba Group and Baidu, electric car manufacturer BYD, pharmaceutical firm WuXi AppTec, and humanoid robotics company Unitree. The designation means the firms can’t do business with the Pentagon, but it can also lead to reputational risk that can be a headwind for their overall business in the US.

US Artificial Intelligence Industry: Late yesterday afternoon, ChatGPT creator OpenAI announced that it has filed for an initial public offering that will likely come sometime this autumn. That means that OpenAI, its rival Anthropic, and SpaceX are all now planning big IPOs (at mammoth valuations) in the coming weeks and months. Reports indicate that some investors have already begun selling shares in other companies to raise cash and be ready to buy the new tech shares. In turn, that could weigh on share prices for targeted sectors or firms.

• Interestingly, some major college endowments that invested in SpaceX via private equity funds in recent years are now set to earn billions of dollars from its IPO.
• For some institutions, including Washington University in St. Louis, equity in SpaceX makes up more than 10% of their endowment portfolio. (We don’t expect any windfall to lead to lower tuition rates, unfortunately.)

US Housing Market: The Financial Times today carries an interesting article showing that buy-now, pay-later firms are starting to offer so-called “rent-split loans,” in which the lenders cover a tenant’s monthly payment to their landlord and receive the money back in installments spread over the course of the month. The loans effectively split up the borrower’s rent bill into smaller sums. The new product reflects the financial challenges that many lower-income consumers are facing because of rising living costs.

Indonesia: In an off-cycle move today, Bank Indonesia unexpectedly boosted its benchmark short-term interest rate to 5.50%, up from 5.25% previously. The hike followed a 0.50% increase just three weeks ago, which had been the first rate hike in about two years. According to the policymakers, the rate increases aim to support the rupiah, which has been losing value against the dollar and other major currencies as investors begin to project possible rate hikes in the US and other countries because of the war in Iran.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with a few words on the apparent rebound in risk-asset markets so far today. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets, including an update on the war in Iran and further evidence that the US administration wants the federal government to take ownership stakes in major companies involved with artificial intelligence.

US Stock Market: After Friday’s rout across risk markets, including a 4.2% drop in the NASDAQ price index, US stocks look set for a significant rebound today. That makes sense to us, as Friday’s strong data on nonfarm payrolls, which helped spark the sell-off, was likely distorted by hospitality firms and local governments going on a hiring binge to prepare for the World Cup. Other parts of the employment report were tame, such as modest wage growth and continued weakness in the number of workers saying they’ve found jobs.

• It’s true that the Federal Reserve is now much less likely to cut interest rates as much as we previously thought over the rest of the year.
• Nevertheless, it’s probably too early to assume that rate hikes are coming due to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh taking over.
• Of course, the other major source of the stock-market volatility late last week was concern about the future of the artificial intelligence business. That issue is likely to remain a source of risk and volatility going forward.

United States-Israel-Iran: Over the weekend, Iran launched attacks on Israel for the first time since the current ceasefire took effect in April, saying the strikes were to retaliate for Israeli attacks on the Iran-aligned Islamic militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel responded with its own attacks on Iran, including a strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure. The strikes threatened to undermine the ceasefire, but both Iran and Israel today said they would suspend their attacks. Restoration of the fragile truce is likely also supporting stock prices so far today.

United States-Israel: Reports over the weekend said the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has raised its threat assessment of Israeli espionage against the US to the “critical” level. Israel has long been known as an especially aggressive espionage threat, but the reports say it has now gone so far as to install spying software on telephones and computers of US military personnel in Israel and has tried to install listening devices at DIA headquarters in Washington and in a Secret Service vehicle. The DIA action could further fray US-Israeli relations and disrupt the war against Iran.
Japan: Confirming our view that Japan could rapidly become a major arms exporter now that it has dropped its decades-long ban on selling lethal weapons abroad, Tokyo late Friday said it has entered negotiations to sell modern Asagiri-class destroyers to Indonesia. That follows previous reports that Japan will sell Mogami-class frigates to Australia and is in talks to sell anti-ship missiles to the Philippines. The rapid spate of deals since dropping the arms export ban in April suggests Japan’s heavy industries and their suppliers could see a flood of new defense orders.

South Korea: The Bank of Korea and the Financial Supervisory Service today ordered the country’s major banks to take stronger steps to prevent their clients from engaging in “speculative market-disrupting behavior” that capitalizes on a weaker currency. The order comes as the won continues to depreciate in response to higher fuel import costs and the risk of higher interest rates in the US. The won has now lost 11.4% of its value against the dollar over the last year, despite a technology-driven jump in South Korean exports.

China: Chang Xin Memory Technologies (CXMT), China’s leading producer of dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) semiconductors, reportedly won approval last week for an initial public offering in Shanghai. Meanwhile, Chinese flash-memory champion Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp. (YMTC) reportedly began IPO preparations and could formally submit a listing application later this month.

• The potential IPOs suggest Chinese memory makers could soon become more serious challengers for South Korea’s world-leading makers, such as Samsung and SK Hynix.
• Of course, China’s typical trade strategy would suggest that the government will heavily subsidize CXMT and YMTC to help them eventually gain a dominant position in the global memory chip market.
• If successful, that would give China yet another key source of economic leverage over the US and its allies.

United States-China: President Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump, Jr., late last week warned against investing in China, mostly because its legal system is tilted against foreigners. He added that, “I don’t think we can pretend they’re an ally. That would be, I think, foolish.” The same day, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins testified before Congress that dependence on China for food, fertilizer, and other agricultural inputs poses an “existential” threat to the US.

• The statements come as President Trump continues trying to establish a kind of détente with China after its bruising pushback to his tariff war last year.
• The statements illustrate how, despite the president’s effort to cool tensions, many investors, businessmen, economists, and policymakers see risk in drawing too close to Beijing.

India: The youth-oriented Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), which has drawn millions of followers after starting out as a joke on social media, held its first real-life protest march in New Delhi on Saturday. The move from social media to real life suggests that the Cockroaches, as they have become known, could become a viable opposition movement against Prime Minister Modi and his increasingly repressive Hindu-nationalist government. If so, it could undermine policy stability in India and potentially damage the country’s improving investment environment.

US Artificial Intelligence Industry: President Trump on Friday provided further evidence that he may push for the government to take ownership stakes in major AI firms, telling reporters that, “There’s something very interesting about it, where it almost becomes a partnership with the American public.” While the president appeared to base the idea on the opportunity for US citizens to participate in the vast value creation some expect from the technology, industry leaders also believe public ownership could ease public opposition to it.

• Of course, government “ownership of the means of production” is one definition of socialism, an epithet that right-wing politicians often apply to left-wing policies. Indeed, Democratic Socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders has proposed that the federal government take 50% ownership stakes in top AI companies.
• On the other hand, populist policies that focus on the interests of working-class people are increasingly embraced by both the right and the left. Indeed, when asked about the Sanders proposal, Trump responded, “As far as economics is concerned, we have certain things that aren’t that far apart. People are surprised.”

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with new research that helps confirm our belief that China’s growing comprehensive power — political, military, economic, and technological — is giving it much more geopolitical leverage. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets today, including the latest on the war in Iran and a U-turn by S&P Global on when it will include the upcoming SpaceX shares in the S&P 500 index.

Global Pharmaceutical Industry: New research by the Council on Foreign Relations has found that China dominates the global supply of key medicines and pharmaceutical inputs nearly as much as it dominates the global supply of critical minerals such as rare earths. That validates our view that Beijing has probably developed multiple sources of economic leverage over the US and its allies.

• Beijing could therefore restrict its exports of key products to force the US or other countries to bow to Chinese demands, as it did with critical minerals during the US-China tariff spat in 2025.
• Even if the US and other countries successfully build their own critical mineral mines and processing facilities in the coming years, the analysis suggests China will still have important tools to impose economic pain on its adversaries.
• Coupled with its other sources of increased power, such as China’s rapidly growing arsenal of nuclear weapons, Beijing now has a level of total, comprehensive power that is at least starting to rival that of the US. In turn, that will likely undermine US companies’ market opportunities going forward.

United States-Israel-Iran: Islamic militant group Hezbollah yesterday rejected the US-brokered ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon, which was announced on Wednesday. The deal was aimed at stopping the Israeli attacks on Iran-aligned militant groups in Lebanon, which Israel launched in conjunction with its participation in the US war against Iran. Stopping the attacks on its proxies in Lebanon has been a key Iranian demand in order to accept a peace deal with the US. Therefore, the development provides added reason to think the Iran war will continue.

United Kingdom: As long anticipated, Manchester mayor Andy Burnham yesterday confirmed that he will try to replace Keir Starmer as prime minister if he wins a parliamentary by-election on June 18. Labour Party rules require that anyone launching a leadership contest must be a member of parliament. However, the district Burnham will be contesting has not traditionally voted Labour, so it is still uncertain if he will have the chance to unseat the unpopular Starmer.

European Union-China-India: In a new survey by The Conference Board and the European Round Table for Industry, only 34% of corporate chief executives in the EU were optimistic that business conditions in China would improve in three or more years, while 34% were neutral and 23% were pessimistic. In contrast, 70% of the respondents were optimistic or very optimistic about conditions in India, with only 4% pessimistic.

• The figures underscore how India is increasingly being seen as a more attractive place to do business versus China.
• In turn, that could suggest better prospects for Indian stocks as well.

India: To shore up the depreciating rupee, New Delhi today said it will end a 12.5% capital gains tax on government bonds held by foreigner institutions, allow foreigners to buy government bonds with maturities up to 40 years (compared with 10 years currently), and raise the current 10.0% cap on foreign ownership of publicly traded Indian companies. The investor-friendly measures are aimed at offsetting the downward pressure on the rupee that has resulted from the war in Iran and the associated spike in India’s oil import bill.

US National Security: The Financial Times yesterday revealed that AI-giant Anthropic is already making its powerful Mythos model available to the National Security Agency to launch offensive cyberattacks against US adversaries. The company is helping the NSA despite its continuing dispute with the Pentagon over what its AI models can be used for. The news suggests Mythos is so capable that the Pentagon can’t pass up the opportunity to use it despite the continued dispute.

US Stock Market: In a statement yesterday, S&P Global said it will abandon its earlier plan to change its rules for inclusion in the S&P 500 to quickly move SpaceX into the key stock index once it completes its initial public offering. By maintaining its current rules, SpaceX will have to go through a one-year seasoning period before it becomes part of the S&P 500. In turn, that will mean that index-fund investors won’t automatically have exposure to the company until sometime in 2027.

US Private Credit Industry: Investment giant Blackstone yesterday said investors in its large BCRED private credit fund had requested to redeem 10% of the fund’s assets during its most recent quarter, up from 8% in the previous quarter. The company said it would therefore reverse its previous lenient policy and start enforcing a 5% cap on quarterly withdrawals going forward. The clamp-down apparently eased investor concerns about a mass wave of redemptions, allowing the firm’s share price to jump 7.5%.

US Banking Industry: In an exclusive new article yesterday, the Wall Street Journal said JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and other large commercial banks are planning to launch a tokenized deposit network to help them compete for assets as the White House pushes to reduce restrictions on cryptocurrencies. Importantly, the new tokenized deposit network would allow real-time, 24/7 settlements.

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