by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with our thoughts on the risk of the economy overheating. We then turn to AI, examining the latest incident of agents going rogue online. Next, we briefly cover the Eurozone’s better-than-expected growth, a possible US ban on fuel exports, and the latest developments in US-China talks. As always, we conclude with a review of recent domestic and international economic data.

Growth Unchained? Despite headwinds in the global economy, there is a surprising amount of resilience in the US. The latest PMI report from S&P Global showed that US economic activity expanded at its fastest pace since 2021. The stronger-than-expected reading has had both positive and negative interpretations in the markets as it shows there is still a lot of momentum in the economy but also signals there may be some evidence of overheating. As a result, there was a sharp lift in Treasury yields.

• In August, the S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 58.7. The strong reading was driven by an acceleration in manufacturing, which jumped from 53.9 to 57.0, while the services PMI rose from 56.0 to 58.4. Both indexes were driven by a noticeable increase in production and output, which in turn has led to a surge in employment and wage pressures. However, one caveat is that there were also signs of higher input costs and sale prices.
• The PMI report has added to concerns that the economy is overheating. The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow model shows that recent data suggests third quarter growth is running at an annualized rate of 5.1%, a significant acceleration from the previous month’s estimate of 1.5%. While consumption is strong, much of the increase was driven by a marked rise in investment spending. PMI surveys specifically named a surge in tech and defense spending.

• Stronger expectations of GDP growth have weighed on market sentiment due to concerns over monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has stated that an overheating economy is one of the reasons the Fed was forced to hike at its previous meeting, with most officials projecting at least one more rate hike this year, and four officials favoring an additional two hikes. As a result, concerns about inflation and tighter Fed policy have lifted long-end yields, with the 10-year yield rising above 5.11%.
• The acceleration in economic activity is likely a sign of an overstimulated economy, which could force the Fed to proceed with additional hikes. However, higher interest rates are only one side of the equation and are likely to have only a short-term impact on equities. Assuming growth remains fairly broad-based, this should point to an increase in corporate earnings, meaning there could be a lot of buying opportunities in the market if equity prices fall due to Fed concerns.

Rogue AI: Another hack involving an AI agent has led to calls for more oversight of the technology. The latest hacking attempt involved an Australian health services site, in what is now the highest-profile breach since these cyberattacks became public. Concerns about agents have forced the government to find a balanced approach to resolving safety concerns while still allowing the technology to grow. Resolving these issues, on top of other concerns surrounding AI, remains key to maintaining momentum in the trade.

• According to Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, the hacking incident targeted the Medicare Statistical Reporting portal and was able to access both public and non-public profiles. OpenAI discovered the breach in August and reported it to the government earlier this month. Following the incident, the government has now launched an investigation into what other government agencies may have been impacted, amid concerns that both local and federal agencies may have been exposed.
• The breach of a government agency comes on the heels of several hacking incidents within the last couple of months. The White House has consistently maintained that these concerns may be a bit overblown, particularly when it comes to the more apocalyptic claims. However, it has taken steps toward light-touch oversight by establishing an oversight agency modeled after the Space Force, which is rumored to be headed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, one of the administration’s most vocal advocates regarding these concerns.
• Concerns over AI may raise doubts around the recent momentum, though likely not enough to alter it. Given the White House’s push to win the AI race and outpace China, it will likely avoid any severe regulation that could slow the pace of advancement as AI could be central to the future of warfare. As a result, we think the administration is willing to tolerate such incidents as long as they don’t lead to a systemic problem, such as an intrusion into the financial system.
• While safety concerns are likely to weigh on sentiment and possibly lead to some political scrutiny, they are not the biggest threat to the AI boom. So far, the issues that remain of greatest concern are escalating competition from China, overly high earnings expectations, and possible infrastructure constraints due to concerns about data center capacity. While all these problems are present, none appears to pose an imminent threat.

Eurozone Surprise: The S&P Global PMI for the eurozone came in stronger than expected. Last month, economic activity accelerated to its fastest pace since April 2023. The pickup was widely attributed to an increase in services activity, but manufacturing was also solid. Germany and France stood out as strong performers, with the latter moving out of contraction territory for the first time in 10 months. The improvement in the PMI suggests resilience in the economy in the face of rising energy prices.

Diesel Ban: There is a growing push from lawmakers to help contain the rise in diesel prices. More recently, the White House has considered putting in place a diesel export ban to help stem rising costs. While companies have pushed back against the notion, the move could calm some of the political backlash the administration has received from farming states that rely on the fuel. However, the move is likely to lead to higher diesel prices abroad.

China-US Meeting: The two largest economies in the world have met in Washington to hold talks about relations between the two countries. Following the arrival of the Chinese delegation, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that the countries had agreed to a two-month truce. While there is little hope for a major breakthrough during the talks, the truce is likely to provide the market with more stability heading into 2027. The move is a reminder that the White House continues to pursue a comprehensive trade deal with China.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with our thoughts on the recent resurgence of AI FOMO. We then turn to geopolitics, discussing the decision by Washington and Tehran to reopen dialogue at the UN summit. Next, we briefly cover the pushback against global AI oversight, the White House’s pick for national security advisor, and the signs of rising AI protectionism. As always, we conclude with a review of recent domestic and international economic data.

AI FOMO: Investors are rotating back into AI-related stocks, driving a tech rally despite elevated long-term yields. While high bond yields present a steeper return hurdle, renewed optimism over AI product demand has outweighed macro headwinds. This rebound follows a recent cooling in the AI trade triggered by stretched valuations, intensifying competition, uncertain monetization, and regulatory concerns. Ultimately, the bounce-back underscores the underlying resilience of the AI trade that has powered markets for the last three years.

• The Nasdaq 100 reached a new record high on Tuesday for the first time since early June, largely fueled by enthusiasm over Muse, Meta’s new AI app. Muse has quickly become a top-downloaded app by moving beyond basic chatbot functions and into handling everyday tasks like booking, scheduling, and shopping. Its success is now encouraging investors to look past the usual AI heavyweights and seek out high-potential, less-popular AI providers.
• At the same time, established AI leaders face mounting headwinds. Intensifying competition from Chinese rivals has forced OpenAI and Anthropic to cut prices in order to defend market share. Beyond margin compression, investor sentiment is being weighed down by a convergence of risks such as stretched valuations, public pushback against energy-intensive data centers, potential regulatory delays, and persistent concerns regarding earnings quality.
• The resurgence of the AI trade may be partially attributed to dynamics that are reminiscent of the 2022-2024 period. During that time, high bond yields meant equities were in growing competition with fixed income for investor capital. Initially, investors began moving away from equities in favor of short-duration Treasurys. However, as AI gained in prominence, investor preferences began to shift, gravitating instead toward companies with high growth potential to compensate for the extra risk.
• The AI trade’s resurgence highlights technology’s enduring momentum and could continue to support the sector. With fixed income offering relatively attractive, lower-risk returns, investors may favor AI-related equities only where the potential for long-term earnings growth justifies taking additional risk. Established AI leaders should remain in demand, but lesser-known beneficiaries may offer greater upside alongside greater risk.

President’s Speech: President Trump provided the world with more guidance on his plan for Iran following nearly seven months of fighting. In a speech to the UN, the president stated his willingness to either allow Iran to rebuild itself or possibly annihilate it. His comments came the same day reports revealed that Iran had stated it was willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US would allow for a diplomatic solution. The easing of tensions on both sides has helped create optimism that the two will hold talks.

• Following the UN speech, the Trump administration held talks with Iranian representatives about the ongoing conflict. While no details were disclosed about what was discussed during the meeting, the president did state that the meeting went well and that the two sides would be meeting again soon. Although no official date was given, the president did mention that he believed Iran was awaiting the results of the midterm elections, and that an agreement would likely happen afterward.
• Prior to the agreement, the US had ramped up pressure on Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had threatened any country that provides air services to Iran. The move was part of the US maximum pressure campaign meant to further isolate Tehran to push it to come to the negotiating table. So far, Iran has maintained that it will only agree to talks if the US eases military pressure and ends its blockade of Iranian ports.
• The diplomatic thaw has provided some relief in oil markets, which were already benefiting from reports that Saudi Arabia was repairing its East-West pipeline that had been damaged in attacks by Iranian-linked Houthis. Crude prices have fallen for a fifth consecutive day, with WTI approaching $90 a barrel for the first time this month. The drop in oil prices should provide support for equities and bond prices, as it reduces the chance of sustained inflationary strain and gives the Fed justification for holding off on further tightening.

No Global Oversight: President Trump has ruled out a possible global oversight body for AI. He maintained that the potential risks of AI to humanity have been overstated, and that global regulation could jeopardize the US’s lead in the AI race. His comments suggest that the US still wants to maintain control over its AI sector, especially as it competes with China for dominance in the space. The lack of global regulation stands to benefit AI companies.

New NSA Director: The White House has named Marco Rubio as National Security Advisor, making him the first person to hold both that role and Secretary of State simultaneously since Henry Kissinger. He had previously been serving in an acting capacity following Mike Waltz’s departure. The move comes as the White House looks to keep a tight inner circle as it tries to push through its foreign policy agenda. Rubio’s dual role suggests that current policy will probably continue.

AI Protectionism: A group of lawmakers has sounded the alarm over China’s potential access to sensitive US technology, with several senators urging the president to close the loopholes that make such access possible. The appeal comes as Washington and Beijing prepare for talks on trade and AI. Congressional scrutiny could limit the president’s leverage in negotiations with China, though progress toward a deal still looks very likely heading into talks expected this weekend.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with increased calls for the US to ban diesel fuel exports to help bring down domestic prices. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets today, including new signs that the war in Iran will lead to more diversified shipping options for Middle Eastern oil and news of a nascent dispute between Meta and Amazon over the use of Meta’s new Muse artificial intelligence agent for shopping on Amazon’s platform.

US Energy Market: As the wars in Iran and Ukraine continue to constrict global diesel fuel supplies and drive up prices, officials are reportedly considering plans to ban US diesel exports. However, since US distillate inventories are currently extremely low, we believe any such ban could have only a modest impact on prices, perhaps lowering them by no more than 10% or so. If such a ban were implemented and maintained, the more important impact would likely be to disincentivize energy investment here at home while incentivizing investment abroad.

United States-Israel-Iran: According to the Wall Street Journal, the US has proposed investing $5 billion in a new fund that would help Middle East countries rebuild energy infrastructure damaged in the Iran war and reduce their reliance on the Strait of Hormuz to transport oil and gas to world markets. The proposed bypass funding helps confirm that one key result of the war will be more diversified outbound oil shipping routes from the Middle East, which could reduce Iran’s control over the region’s waterways and help bring down prices — eventually.

• Separately, Saudi Arabian sources have reportedly said the country is making progress on repairs to its East-West oil pipeline that was damaged in fighting almost two weeks ago. The reports say that by the end of the week, oil could again flow through the pipeline for shipment through the Red Sea.
• In response, global oil prices have softened, with near Brent futures currently changing hands at $98.41 per barrel, down 1.9%.

United Kingdom-Saudi Arabia-Iran: British Prime Minister Burnham yesterday said he has approved a request from Saudi Arabia for the UK to provide military support for its fight with Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Billing the deal as a measure to help control the cost of living and keep oil supplies flowing, Burnham said the UK will provide just one refueling aircraft to the Saudis for a limited period. Nevertheless, the step raises the risk of greater UK involvement in the US-Israeli war against Iran.

United Kingdom: Government borrowing increased more than expected to 18.3 billion GBP ($24.5 billion) in August. As a result, borrowing in the fiscal year to August has risen to a total of 77.3 billion GBP ($103.3 billion), about 8.1 billion GBP ($10.8 billion) more than the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast in March. The worse-than-expected deficit, which stems from both high price inflation and elevated interest rates, means public debt remains high at about 94% of gross domestic product — a rate that puts further upward pressure on UK bond yields.

China: New data from the World Gold Council shows that the Chinese central bank and other mainland buyers purchased $158.8 billion of foreign gold between January and August, bringing their total purchases to more than 1,000 tons. Coupled with recent data showing that Chinese holdings of US Treasury obligations have fallen to their lowest level since 2008, the data on gold imports suggests that both official and private investors in China are trying to diversify their asset holdings away from the US.

United States-Vietnam: As the annual UN General Assembly meetings get going in New York, Vietnamese President To Lam said in an interview that his nation is “very close” to a trade deal with the US. The president suggested that the deal will be facilitated by a Vietnamese commitment to buy more US high-technology goods, such as airliners. We suspect that any such deal would also include measures to stop Chinese producers from sending their cheap products to the US through Vietnam.

US Artificial Intelligence Industry: Meta’s share price surged 11% yesterday on news that its new Muse internet buying agent has become the top free-app download on Apple and Google. Separately, however, Amazon blocked Muse from perusing and buying products on its platform, citing concerns over customer security and user experience. Despite polls showing consumers don’t like the prospect of ever-more-powerful AI, the dispute shows that people are embracing AI agents that can help with specific tasks, setting off a clash between agent providers.

US Cryptocurrency Industry: Bitcoin prices yesterday surged to more than $87,000, up from less than $60,000 in early July. The price surge appears to have stemmed from the SEC’s unveiling last week of its “Innovation Exemption,” which opens a path for tokenized US stocks to trade on blockchain-based venues. In addition, the CFTC sent proposed crypto-market rules to the White House for review last week.

• Those moves have offset the disappointment over Congress’s failure early last week to advance the Clarity Act, which promised to provide market structure to the nascent market for crypto assets.
• The SEC and CFTC actions suggest that even if Congress doesn’t advance clear rules on crypto market structure, the administration will take regulatory steps to boost the industry.

US Homebuilding Industry: In a new poll by John Burns Research and Consulting, housing contractors around the country say ramped-up Immigration and Customs Enforcement crackdowns are creating huge labor shortages for their businesses, adding to other challenges ranging from rising mortgage rates and higher prices for key inputs to growing competition for resources from data-center builders. The result will likely be added upward pressure on home prices and reduced home sales.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with an update on the war in Iran, where Iran-backed proxies have staged a new attack on Saudi Arabia. However, speculation that President Trump could meet with the Iranian president in New York this week has raised hopes for new talks, driving oil prices and bond yields lower. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets today, including another strong election result for the far right in Germany and a major new issue of junk bonds related to artificial intelligence.

United States-Israel-Iran: Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen yesterday staged an apparent missile attack on the main airport in Saudi Arabia’s capital, hitting a jet fuel depot and setting it ablaze. The Houthis also reportedly attempted to target civilians and infrastructure in the Saudi cities of Baish, Taif, Farasan, and Yanbu, but the strikes were thwarted by Saudi air defenses. The attacks appear to be aimed at increasing the costs of the Iran war for US allies. In any case, the attacks threaten to further boost energy prices for the US and other countries around the world.

• Separately, new analyses by Bloomberg and energy analytics firms show the war in Iran cut Middle Eastern diesel fuel exports by about 770,000 barrels per day in March through August versus the same period in 2025. In contrast, the war in Ukraine has cut Russian diesel exports by only about 350,000 bpd in the same time frame, suggesting a decline in Western diesel prices would be more dependent on peace in Iran than peace in Ukraine.
• Meanwhile, reports over the weekend said Walmart and Costco are both experiencing shortages of motor oil due to the conflicts. Prices for synthetic motor oil have at least doubled over the last year, forcing Costco to implement purchase limits.
• At the same time, President Trump reportedly said over the weekend that he’s open to meeting the Iranian president at the United Nations General Assembly meeting this week in New York. That statement has helped push crude oil prices lower so far today, with near Brent futures currently trading at $100.97 per barrel, down 2.8%. Government bond yields are falling in tandem, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note now at 4.952%.

Germany: In elections for the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at the weekend, the far-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD) came in first with 38.2% of the vote, while the center-left Social Democratic Party came in second with 35.5%. In contrast, the center-right Christian Democratic Union, which rules at the national level under Chancellor Merz, got only 4.9% of the vote, shutting it out of the state legislature.

• The result confirms that the AfD continues to garner support and remains on track to possibly gain power at the national level in the coming few years. As the AfD gains power, German policy would probably become more friendly to Russia and antagonistic to the European Union. It would also likely become more anti-immigration and more populist in economic and social policy.
• In the near term, after a similar rout in the state of Saxony-Anhalt two weeks ago, the result in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern raises the chance of a leadership challenge to Merz. In turn, that could spark questions of political and policy stability that may be a negative for German stock and bond markets.

United States-Russia-China: On Friday, President Trump signed a bill into law known as the “Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026,” which authorizes and expands statutory sanctions, tariffs, and prohibitions on Russia and extends existing sanctions on Iran. The legislation, passed overwhelmingly by Congress last week, gives the president the authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the five biggest buyers of Russian oil and natural gas, along with other measures against Russia and Iran.

• The law in theory puts China at risk of US sanctions, since it is a major buyer of Russian and Iranian oil.
• Despite recent US moves to delay the application of other tariffs on China, the new law could potentially cause some tension when General Secretary Xi meets with President Trump at the White House later this week.

Russia: In the weekend’s parliamentary elections, preliminary results show the United Russia party that serves as President Putin’s main source of support came in first with 355 of the 450 seats in the lower house of the legislature. As expected, “systemic opposition” parties that usually vote with the Kremlin won most of the remaining seats. Putin’s authoritarian regime therefore looks set to continue for the time being.

• Perhaps more important, many observers believe Putin could now authorize a special military draft to raise more troops for the war in Ukraine.
• That prospect has already prompted many Russian men to flee the country, but recent reports suggest the Kremlin has tightened security along its borders to contain the exodus.

China-Japan: New data shows China’s August exports of rare-earth magnets to Japan were down 17.1% from the same month one year earlier. That’s better than the 52.2% decline in the year to July, but it suggests Beijing is still trying to punish Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi for her statement last year about Japan being likely to respond militarily to any Chinese effort to take control of Taiwan by force.

• Permanent magnets made with rare-earth minerals are an important input for modern electronics, industrial products, and defense goods.
• China’s continued clampdown on exports of the magnets has therefore been disruptive to Japanese companies in a range of industries.

China-Philippines: Social media videos confirm that a Chinese coast guard ship on Friday rammed a Philippine fisheries department vessel trying to deliver subsidized fuel to local fishing boats in a disputed area of the South China Sea. The renewed tensions come after a period of relative quiet. A new round of aggressive Chinese tactics to chase Philippine vessels away from the disputed waters would raise the risk of conflict between Beijing and Manila, potentially putting pressure on the US to intervene.

US Labor Market: The Wall Street Journal yesterday carried an article on how renowned organizational psychologist Adam Grant thinks artificial intelligence will change the skill set needed for professionals to get ahead. According to Grant, the prevalence of information with AI will make people’s expertise less valuable, but it will put a higher value on judgment and interpersonal relations. For example, Grant recommends touching base more often by phone calls or personal meetings to get a better sense of trends and how the future will evolve.

US Artificial Intelligence Industry: Japanese technology-investment giant SoftBank this week will reportedly price an $11 billion issue of high-yield bonds to help fund the third tranche of an investment in OpenAI expected to close next month. This would be one of the largest junk bond deals ever, highlighting the continued AI loan demand that is helping drive up global interest rates and further raising fears of excess investment.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with our takeaways from the Bank of Japan’s latest rate decision. We then turn to trade, examining the recent easing of tensions between the US and China ahead of their talks. Next, we briefly cover the prospect of renewed US military operations in Iran, as well as a discussion about a hack into OpenAI. As always, we conclude with a review of recent domestic and international economic data.

Yen Weakens: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is failing to reassure investors that it is prepared to tighten policy further in response to mounting inflation concerns. Overnight, the central bank raised interest rates to their highest level in more than 31 years, but offered mixed signals on the timing of any additional moves. The ambiguous guidance triggered a sell-off in the Japanese yen, as investors questioned the BoJ’s policy credibility. The market was focused on the meeting due to the possibility of closer policy coordination between Japanese and US authorities.

• The BoJ raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, from 1.00% to 1.25%. The hike was widely expected, as the central bank has been normalizing interest rates since 2024. While Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at further hikes during the post-meeting press conference, citing a renewed focus on stabilizing inflation, the 7–2 vote (with the two dissenters favoring a hold) has raised doubts about whether the central bank will raise rates at its next meeting.
• The lack of conviction on future rate hikes is at odds with many of its peers. Based on the latest market-implied policy rates, the BoJ is the only G-7 central bank not expected to hike at its next meeting, with rate probability pricing in only a 31% chance, almost half that of its nearest peer, the European Central Bank, which sits at 60%. The potential widening of the interest rate differential has likely contributed to the depreciation of the yen.
• Prior to the meeting, the yen had strengthened on expectations that the BoJ would adopt a more assertive approach to policy tightening. Much of that shift followed comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who not only hinted that the BoJ should tighten more aggressively, but also appeared to suggest that he knew their decision prior to the vote. His remarks helped ease selling pressure on the yen and briefly fueled speculation that the BoJ could deliver a 50-basis-point rate increase at its latest meeting.
• A persistent decline in the Japanese yen could pave the way for more intervention by the US Treasury and the BoJ. It is commonly believed that the threshold for such action is when the yen weakens past 160 per dollar. If that happens, Japan’s Ministry of Finance could use its holdings of sovereign bonds to fund purchases of yen in the open market. The Treasury could also intervene, partly to stem Japanese sales of US Treasurys. Nevertheless, any move to strengthen the yen could weigh on sovereign bond prices.

The Calm Before Talks: Washington and Beijing are looking to ease tensions less than a week before the sides are set to meet for talks. On Thursday, as a sign of good faith, the US decided to delay its excess capacity tariffs until after the meeting. Meanwhile, China has offered an olive branch of its own, allowing the yuan to appreciate against the dollar. The moves come as the two sides prepare to hold talks on trade, geopolitics, and AI, in what could reshape the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.

• The decision to delay tariffs follows the US determination to replace the tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court. A July investigation into the use of forced labor in Chinese-made goods led to China receiving a 12.5% tariff, a rate China said was consistent with the truce the two sides struck earlier in the year. The new excess capacity tariff would add 7.5%, bringing the total to 20%, which will probably be discussed during the scheduled talks.
• Meanwhile, China’s decision to allow the yuan to appreciate against the dollar has also eased tensions. The yuan rose to its highest level against the dollar in nearly four years after the People’s Bank of China strengthened its currency fixing for an eighth day in a row. The move is likely to put White House officials at ease, following allegations that a weaker yuan has given Chinese goods a competitive advantage in trade.
• The decision by both sides to offer concessions ahead of the talks comes as the two countries prepare to address two major flashpoints: the war in Iran and AI competition. Both issues have grown in importance, as the US and China have taken opposing sides on the conflict and remain locked in intense competition over AI. The discussions should allow the two sides to find common ground and prevent an escalation of tensions, as both issues carry the risk of a direct conflict.
• As the talks approach, we expect to receive more details on discussions regarding the war in Iran and AI, as opposed to trade. If the two sides can reach a consensus that helps alleviate tensions in the Middle East, that could ease oil supply concerns, which in turn could be supportive of bond prices. Meanwhile, signs that the two countries won’t restrict mineral or technology exports to each other could be positive for AI-related stocks. However, any setback in the talks could weigh on market sentiment.

Escalation in Iran: President Trump has mentioned that he is considering resuming military operations in Iran as a way to end the conflict. While there has been some success in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, transportation is still well below prewar levels, and the conflict has since broadened into other areas, including the Red Sea. The decision comes as the cost to the US has made it difficult to maintain its blockade for much longer. The president is expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu next, in what could pave the way for his decision.

Hacking with AI: Independent researchers have already begun experimenting with ways AI can be used for cyberattacks. One test showed that they were able to use Claude AI to hack into an OpenAI chatbot of an employee, allowing it to read and suggest changes to its private cache. Once the test was complete, the researchers reported the vulnerabilities to OpenAI. The finding shows how people may attempt to exploit AI as it becomes more readily available, and it is likely to raise more questions about government oversight.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with our takeaways from today’s rate decision and what we could gather from the Fed’s communication. We then turn to the market’s reaction to the decision, examining its impact on equities and fixed income. Next, we briefly cover the EU’s push to have Canada become an associate member, as well as signs that AI companies are developing their own methods of self-regulating. As always, we conclude with a review of recent domestic and international economic data.

Fed Rate Decision: In an effort to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023. The decision also signaled that the central bank is prepared to tighten monetary policy further. This increase in the federal funds rate comes amid an improving economy and rising energy prices, which have sparked concerns about inflation becoming unanchored. Furthermore, the move reinforces the central bank’s independence from political pressure.

• The rate decision cemented the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift following weeks of speculation. The latest Summary of Economic Projections showed that Fed officials have revised their outlook for rates at the end of the year from remaining unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% to 4.00%-4.25%. The increase is driven by a rise in the central bank’s expectations for both growth and inflation, suggesting that it is no longer worried about the employment side of its mandate.
• During the press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that the rate decision was part of the central bank’s mission to return inflation to target. He noted that while Fed officials acknowledge they do not have control over some of the supply drivers of inflation, the rate increase was designed to prevent the second- and third-order effects those drivers could cause. He also suggested not only that Fed officials had judged conditions to be unrestrictive prior to the increase, but that current rates may still be accommodative.
• While Fed Chair Warsh was reluctant to offer much forward guidance, he did acknowledge one indicator that appears to be informing the decision-making process: the dispersion of inflation. According to Warsh, the share of components moving away from the 2% target was among the indicators that supported a rate hike at this meeting. Warsh previously noted that 54% of components were above 3%, down from a post-pandemic peak of 77%, but still well above the 22% seen prior to the pandemic.
• The Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift signals that its commitment to the 2% target remains intact. The Fed will likely receive some relief this month when the PCE updates its methodology, which is anticipated to show downward revisions to inflation. Thus, while the Fed appears hawkish and has signaled a willingness to hike rates further this year, there is still a chance that incoming data could lead it to hold steady.

The Market’s Take: The Fed’s decision to raise rates left more questions than it answered. While the market had largely priced in the possibility of a hike at the meeting, it seemed ill-prepared for the hawkish shift in the Summary of Economic Projections. Caught flat-footed, investors triggered a selloff across several securities and a rally in the dollar as lingering concerns about the direction of monetary policy persisted. The reaction serves as a reminder of how dependent the market has become on forward guidance, and how bumpy the adjustment may be without it.

• Despite the market being up prior to the Fed’s decision, several securities sold off during the session, a sign of position liquidations. The shift comes as investors look to reposition themselves following a change in Fed rate expectations. The Nasdaq 100 finished the day slightly higher, suggesting that investors remain confident in the technology sector, while gold was one of the worst performers, declining by about 1% following the announcement.
• One of the more noticeable market shifts following the announcement came in the yield curve, which underwent a bearish flattening as the short end rose faster than the long end. The 2-year Treasury yield rose roughly 10 bps, the 10-year finished the day up 6 bps, while the 30-year was roughly unchanged. The flattening reflects expectations that a hawkish Fed could weigh on growth without tipping the economy into recession.
• While the question going into the Fed announcement was whether it would tighten, the next few weeks will be about how much. The Fed has faced some pushback from the White House over its decision, but that has not yet impacted market rate expectations. The latest CME probabilities suggest the Fed could hike two to three more times this year, with only a 10% chance that it will leave rates unchanged. This sharp shift in outlook reflects a broad belief that the Fed will maintain independence in its rate decisions.
• The market reaction to the Fed was likely a knee-jerk response and may not reflect the view going forward. Sentiment should improve as the market obtains more information about the state of the economy, since higher interest rates and a moderation of concerns regarding oil supply should help alleviate inflation fears. While there may be some worry over White House meddling, we think the market will pay less attention to it now that the Fed has signaled it will hike, which should also provide some stability.

EU-Canada: The European Commission has pushed for Canada to become its first associate member. The move has already drawn the ire of President Trump, who recently indicated that the US and Canada were close to reaching an agreement. In response, he has described the EU’s outreach as a hostile act and has communicated a willingness to raise tariffs. The move is likely another example of the US’s desire to ensure a united North American trade policy as a precondition for maintaining ties with its North American allies.

AI Safety Risk: OpenAI unveiled a new framework on Wednesday for disclosing and tracking risks associated with rogue AI models. In the release, it reported previously undisclosed incidents in which AI behaved in ways counter to its intended use, including instances of concealing or fabricating information to return results. The move by the AI provider comes as tech companies look to demonstrate their ability to self-regulate in hopes of preventing the government from introducing new restrictions.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with our thoughts on the Fed ahead of today’s rate decision. We then turn to AI, examining the growing debate over regulation. Next, we cover legislation that would grant President Trump new trade authority, a meeting between US and Chinese officials ahead of their summit later this month, and the United Kingdom’s push to join a Canada-led defense bank. As always, we conclude with a review of recent domestic and international economic data.

Hawkish Sentiment: The Federal Reserve is set to deliver its rate decision later today, and the market is pricing in its first hike since 2023. Expectations of a rate hike have been increasing since the war in the Middle East started raising energy prices, leading to concerns about an uptick in inflation. While there have been worries that a hike could be the wrong move given that the source of inflation is being driven by supply factors as opposed to demand factors, questions about the Fed’s independence may mean that avoiding a rate hike could be costly.

• Sentiment has shifted regarding the Fed’s tilt over recent months after signs that the Fed was not moving closer to its 2% inflation target. Since the conflict began, the Fed has been progressively more hawkish. Although dot plots at the start of the conflict showed that FOMC members were confident in a rate cut this year, that confidence has given way to the central bank brushing aside any mention of a dovish tilt, and, at the previous meeting, a call for a rate hike from some officials.
• The shift in the FOMC has put pressure on Chair Warsh to offer some forward guidance, given that his stance has been somewhat unclear, but he has maintained the need for patience while also acknowledging the Fed’s commitment to price stability. During his comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium in August, he mentioned that the Fed “has work to do” to get inflation back to target, which has largely been seen as implicit support for a rate hike.

• The hawkish shift has occurred as key inflation measures have moved in opposite directions. Core CPI has edged closer to the Fed’s 2% target in recent months, while core PCE, the central bank’s preferred gauge, has moved further away from it. The divergence largely reflects differences in how the measures are weighted, particularly for housing — shelter has exerted more downward pressure on core CPI while having a much smaller effect on core PCE.
• The Fed is likely to raise rates, though we would not be surprised if it held policy steady or even opted for a larger-than-expected increase. A pause would probably reinforce the view that the committee is exercising patience in light of the conflict, while an outsized hike could help quell concerns about the Fed’s independence. As a result, today’s decision could materially reshape market expectations and set the tone for risk assets in the weeks ahead.

AI Safety Talks: There is growing discussion on Capitol Hill about how to best place guardrails for AI while also protecting against the negative consequences. On Tuesday, it was reported that a member of the Trump administration met with executives of Anthropic to discuss AI risks. This attempt to meet with business professionals comes as the White House has expressed wariness about adding restrictions that could slow the development of AI, which it views as a critical component of its national security strategy.

• White House efforts to understand the best way to guard against AI risks are fraught with growing disagreements. During a press conference in San Francisco, several tech executives argued that while the risks of AI are in fact real, the tech industry does not need new regulation. Meanwhile, at a separate conference in Washington, right- and left-wing populists Steve Bannon and Bernie Sanders agreed that there should be some oversight to prevent AI from hurting human interests.
• The discussions about what to do with AI are occurring at a time when the leading AI companies are purportedly preparing for IPOs. SpaceXAI, Anthropic, and OpenAI have all called for a global slowdown in development, despite having gone public or being prepared to do so. While these companies have continued to make promises of strong earnings power, their effort to moderate the pace of development has already been seen as a possible excuse if they fail to meet investor expectations.
• The market impact of these fears has been somewhat mild. Investors have been reducing their exposure to some chip stocks following worries that this could slow spending in the space, while software companies, which have been seen as possible casualties of the rise of AI tools, have benefited from the scare. The former may not last for long, as we think the push for the AI race is likely to benefit from government help; meanwhile, the latter’s gains may extend as AI fears continue to slow adoption rates.
• The concerns over potential guardrails have added to the fears about AI. However, its importance to US national security makes the government reluctant to offer any regulation that could prevent it from achieving its mission of eventually reaching artificial general intelligence (AGI), which would allow these models to reason and make logical decisions. This advancement would give the US a strong geopolitical advantage over its rivals.

Tariff Authority: On Tuesday, the House of Representatives advanced legislation that would give the president more authority to pursue tariffs. The proposal would allow the president to punish countries that purchase Russian energy. There is growing momentum to allow the White House more leeway in using trade and financial restrictions to prevent rivals and trade partners from going against US foreign policy and not following through on pledges.

Xi-Trump Summit: Roughly a week before President Trump is set to meet with his Chinese counterpart, both sides appear to be working to ease tensions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Sunday to discuss growing differences between the two countries, including AI development and trade. Although a major breakthrough is unlikely, the meeting could help set the tone for talks between the leaders of the world’s two largest economies.

UK Joining Canada: The United Kingdom is in discussions to join a Canada-led initiative for a defense bank. While the UK previously rejected the initial plan, it appears to have changed its tune, viewing the initiative as a potential aid in reaching its 3% of GDP defense spending target. The move is likely to further support aerospace and defense companies as Europe and other countries ramp up their military capabilities.

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