by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with a discussion of rising risks to data centers following the elections. We then turn to monetary policy, examining how the Federal Reserve may be insulated from potential changes to its Board of Governors. Next, we briefly cover a possible White House shake-up, the Paraguayan president’s resignation, and delays to a data center project in New Mexico. As always, we conclude with a review of recent domestic and international economic data.

Data Center Fears: Equity markets slid Thursday as anxiety grew that congressional changes could slow data center expansion. The S&P 500 experienced a sharp selloff with investors pulling back from the AI trade amid potential buildout disruptions. Paired with mounting worries about smaller cloud providers overextending on infrastructure debt, the pullback highlights rising skepticism over the sustainability of the AI rally.

• Political and regulatory uncertainty is casting a shadow over the AI infrastructure boom. Fears of structural construction delays, fueled in part by campaign proposals from several Democratic candidates to impose moratoriums on new builds, have led investors to push back expected operational timelines. In response to these rising risks, Microsoft has reportedly tightened oversight of projects managed by neocloud partners and is actively paring back involvement in higher risk developments.
• These infrastructure headwinds spilled into broader equity markets Thursday, amplifying jitters across the technology sector. The selloff intensified as Qualcomm joined the growing list of chipmakers offering cautious outlooks. Although Qualcomm beat fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue expectations, its first-quarter EPS guidance fell below the midpoint of analysts’ estimates. The company’s share drop mirrors recent declines following Intel’s weak results, even as AMD offered a rare bright spot with a post-earnings rally.
• Political headwinds are compounding concerns that the AI rally is running out of steam. Pullbacks across the “Magnificent 7” highlight growing AI fatigue as investors become hesitant to pay steep valuation premiums. Notably, Nvidia’s price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to pre-pandemic lows. While the company’s core earnings remain solid, the contracting multiple reflects market expectations that hyper-growth will normalize over the next few years.
• Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report and Anthropic’s expected IPO will serve as crucial tests of AI sentiment. A strong earnings outlook from Nvidia could alleviate fears of a slowdown in infrastructure spending, while a successful public debut for Anthropic would reinforce investor confidence in AI as a long-term transformative technology. If both events deliver positive results, broader market sentiment could recover heading into year-end; conversely, any major disappointment risks exacerbating downside pressure this quarter.

Fed Safe? The midterm elections have reshaped the narrative around Federal Reserve independence. Once the new Senate is seated, the White House will no longer be able to count on confirmation for whomever it nominates to vacant seats on the Federal Reserve Board. This has eased fears that the administration might pack the Fed with loyalists — a prospect that had fueled worries the central bank would turn overly dovish. Although recent changes in Fed operations still point to a dovish tilt, the shift in the Senate suggests tighter monetary policy remains on the table.

• The chamber’s new composition will complicate any attempt to replace Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Jerome Powell — and, to a lesser extent, Michael Barr — with appointees more closely aligned with the administration. Even if the White House establishes legal grounds to remove them, their replacements would still require Senate confirmation, giving the Democratic majority an opportunity to block nominees perceived as too closely tied to the White House.
• Trump has long argued that the president should have a greater say in monetary policy and has repeatedly pressed the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Following September’s rate hike, he continued to target the central bank’s other policymakers rather than Chair Kevin Warsh, describing Warsh’s colleagues as “hostile” and “political.” His frustration underscores his broader push for greater influence over the central bank.
• The White House may face greater constraints on reshaping the Federal Reserve Board, but Warsh’s changes to the policy calendar could create a more dovish tilt. At the latest Fed meeting, Warsh announced plans to reduce the number of scheduled rate-setting meetings from eight to seven in 2027 and then to six the following year. Although the Fed can adjust rates between scheduled meetings, such moves would likely come in response to an emergency — circumstances that have typically favored rate cuts.
• Stronger constraints on White House influence over the central bank should bolster investor confidence in US Treasurys. The incoming Senate majority should restrict the White House’s ability to install allies on the Board, keeping rate hikes on the table. However, planned changes to the Fed’s schedule could act as a counterweight by reducing the number of meetings available to tighten policy.

White House Shake Up: Following the Republicans’ midterm defeat, the White House could face several high-profile departures. Secretary of State and acting national security adviser Marco Rubio is reportedly weighing an exit as he considers a 2028 presidential bid. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth could also resign ahead of potential impeachment proceedings, which are rumored to have bipartisan support. Moving quickly to replace either official would allow Republicans to confirm successors before the next Congress takes office.

Paraguay Controversy: Paraguayan President Santiago Peña has resigned amid scrutiny of his ties to a failed commercial bank. He had already faced the threat of impeachment after the bank’s collapse left many Paraguayans unable to access their savings. His departure is a setback for US efforts to expand its influence in South America, as he had been an ally of the White House.

Oracle Data Centers: An Oracle-backed data center project in New Mexico faces further delays as its developer seeks the air-quality permit needed to expand on-site power generation. The facility’s use of natural gas requires state approval because of its emissions, complicating the construction timeline. Such delays could heighten investor concerns about some developers’ ability to repay their debt.

View PDF

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with our thoughts on the role that state governors could play in curbing the AI buildout. We then turn to national security, examining why the president might shift more attention abroad now that the midterms are over. Next, we briefly cover Moscow’s deepening ties with Iran, as well as the two Senate races that remain unresolved. As always, we conclude with a review of recent domestic and international economic data.

Governors and Data Centers: While financial markets have focused heavily on shifting power in Congress, changes in state governorships could prove just as consequential. Following the midterm elections, Democrats picked up five additional gubernatorial seats, bringing their total to 28. This shift comes at a time when local communities are pressing state governments to regulate data centers over concerns about their strain on public utilities. The change in party control has raised worries that stricter regulations may follow.

• While two gubernatorial races remain unresolved, Democrats are set to hold a majority of governorships for the first time in 16 years. The two contests up for grabs are in Kansas and Alaska, with the former leaning toward a Democratic victory and the latter heading toward a ranked-choice tabulation. Much of the party’s strong performance was driven by promises to address the rapid construction of data centers, a key issue that fueled Democratic wins in Texas, Ohio, and Georgia.
• Data centers had become a major issue in the months leading up to the midterms. Earlier this year, Maine’s legislature passed the first statewide moratorium on new large data centers, but the governor vetoed it, leaving New York as the first state to impose one. These pauses are designed to allow time to study the facilities’ impacts. Several other states, including Texas, which has one of the largest concentrations of data centers, have pursued similar measures.
• Even with the gains for Democrats in several gubernatorial races, the implications for data centers remain unclear, as moratoriums vary in scope from state to state. For example, Maine’s proposed moratorium would have had limited exceptions, while New York’s targets only new large data center construction, excluding projects already in the works. This variance suggests that while some construction may be paused, a moratorium does not necessarily mean an outright end to projects.
• Time will tell how Democrats will approach data centers, especially since the facilities have been a major engine of economic growth. Additional restrictions or moratoriums would likely act as a headwind to investment spending, at least in the near term. However, they are unlikely to end the spending spree altogether. That could change if restrictions raise project costs to the point where data centers become unprofitable, although there is currently no evidence that this is the case.

National Security Pivot: With the midterm elections concluded and opposition majorities set to control both houses of Congress, the president is expected to shift focus toward international affairs. Constrained domestically, his administration is likely to prioritize high-stakes foreign policy objectives: resolving conflicts in Ukraine and Iran and finalizing a trade deal with China. While such second-term pivots are common, the geopolitical stakes make this transition unusually high-impact.

• Following the midterm results, the White House will likely face tighter constraints on its authority. Having campaigned on rolling back key initiatives from the president’s first two years, Democrats are expected to target immigration enforcement policies and social benefit cuts. The administration’s judicial appointments could encounter fierce resistance as opposition lawmakers move to block further court stackings. Congressional investigations into several White House officials are also widely expected.
• Although Democrats may attempt to check executive power abroad, foreign policy remains a key arena where the Trump administration retains broad latitude. Presidents hold significant constitutional and statutory authority over national security, including limited military actions, trade negotiations, and tariff enforcement. These unilateral powers afford the president a critical avenue to define his foreign policy legacy despite legislative gridlock at home.
• Despite the president’s authority, the next two years of his foreign policy may be less disruptive to markets than the previous two. With the exception of his stance toward Europe, he is likely to take a lighter touch than before as he seeks to secure lasting deals. He has already signaled that he wants diplomacy to work regarding a deal with Iran, made strides to soften the US stance toward Moscow to help resolve the conflict in Ukraine, and appears set to establish a framework for a trade deal with China.
• The Democratic takeover of Congress may shift political volatility away from foreign policy and toward domestic issues as lawmakers gear up for the next election cycle. With a divided government, the White House could ramp up battles over the national deficit while dialing back more extreme foreign policy moves to win back moderate voters. If so, the next year should see more stable energy markets, providing a favorable backdrop for risk assets.

Moscow Deepens Ties: Over the last few years, Russia has provided continuous military support to Iran. A new report states that Moscow has agreed to supply Tehran with 90 missile launchers, despite facing ongoing setbacks in its war with Ukraine. While the delivery is not expected to be a game changer on the battlefield, the move suggests that the two conflicts are becoming increasingly intertwined. Russia and China’s involvement in Iran is expected to be a key topic of discussion when the parties meet at the ASEAN conference later this month.

Senate Races: Two US Senate races remain too close to call, with Democrats holding narrow leads in both Mississippi and Alaska. The Alaska contest, where the margin is roughly 700 votes, faces intense scrutiny following allegations that the race was influenced by an independent candidate who shares a name with Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan.

View PDF

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with our assessment of the midterm election results and their potential implications for markets. We then turn to AI, examining how growing scrutiny of debt and cash flow could shape the sustainability of the AI trade. Next, we briefly cover a shift in US foreign aid policy, US tech firms’ cooling ties with China, and a cyberattack on a French bank. As always, we conclude with a review of recent domestic and international economic data.

Democrats Sweep: Following the midterm elections, Democrats have regained control of both chambers of Congress. Although several races remain uncalled, the party is on track for roughly 225 to 232 seats in the House of Representatives and a 54-seat majority in the Senate. This decisive victory will likely prompt a reevaluation of key national priorities, including foreign policy, federal investment in AI, and deficit-reduction strategies. That said, while markets prepare for political friction, we think common ground is possible.

• The election results confirm that the Democrats have won, though the scale of their victory remains unsettled. Several seats are still up for grabs as of this writing. Two Senate races, in Mississippi and Alaska, are too close to call, with the former leaning Democratic and the latter leaning Republican. With Democrats favored to gain more seats, they are likely to have greater sway over policy.
• The Republicans’ loss represents a major setback for the president’s agenda, as the Democratic victory is likely to slow legislative momentum. Calling for swift oversight, some lawmakers have already urged investigations into the White House. While these inquiries are unlikely to result in formal convictions or removals, they will create significant political gridlock and effectively block the passage of major, controversial legislation.
• The change in the composition of Congress is likely to shape several policy initiatives with implications for markets. In the run-up to the election, debate intensified over data centers and their energy demands, tariffs, and limits on the president’s authority to engage in foreign conflicts, all of which are likely to be addressed over the next two years. With the debt ceiling expected to be reached in 2027, lawmakers will also likely need to confront the growing deficit.
• Following the results, the White House may be more willing to work across the aisle than expected. President Trump has previously demonstrated a willingness to forge bipartisan deals when feasible, most notably with COVID-19 relief legislation and criminal justice reform, and we anticipate a similar approach moving forward. Nevertheless, investors should prepare for potential volatility stemming from fiscal deficit debates and the threat of a government shutdown.

AI Rally: AI hardware suppliers remain at the heart of the AI buildout. On Tuesday, two major AI suppliers issued strong outlooks, signaling that demand for specialized equipment remains high. This upbeat forecasts come as investor confidence in the broader AI rally has faltered amid fears that rising, debt-fueled spending could trigger a slowdown. Nevertheless, attention is increasingly shifting away from long-term sustainability doubts and back toward the robust, ongoing sales of core suppliers.

• AMD, a major chipmaker, and Super Micro Computer, a leading provider of AI server infrastructure, both delivered stronger-than-expected revenue guidance. AMD projected fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $17 billion, topping analyst estimates of $16.3 billion. Meanwhile, Super Micro raised its quarterly revenue forecast to $19.5 billion, significantly outpacing expectations. These impressive outlooks have reassured investors and helped ease fears of a potential AI spending slowdown.
• The performance of AI equipment makers has been viewed as a gauge of the AI rally’s overall sustainability, especially as weak results from cloud companies fuel skepticism. Over the past two weeks, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta all saw their shares sink after earnings amid concerns that heavy spending, rising debt, and, in some cases, weaker results could hurt future profitability. Microsoft was the exception, with its shares initially rising after earnings on the back of solid revenue and positive cash flow.
• Debt and cash flow continue to be major themes for the AI trade. In recent months, cloud providers’ reliance on debt, particularly among hyperscalers, has helped drive cash flow higher for many AI suppliers. To keep its own revenue growing, Nvidia has started financing some of its sales to smaller cloud companies that lack the same ability to borrow. As a result, a slowdown in credit markets that prevents these firms from borrowing large sums to fund the buildout could weigh on the AI rally.
• The strong performance from AI equipment makers should help sustain the rally, but investors should not be complacent. Recent earnings show that markets are growing more skeptical about how much momentum the AI rally has left, which explains the volatility in recent weeks. Still, investors should not panic. As the saying often attributed to John Maynard Keynes goes, markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Diversifying now is a prudent way to build in some protection in case sentiment shifts.

Foreign Aid: President Trump announced that the US plans to terminate military aid to Israel by the end of 2026. Although both nations had previously discussed a gradual phase-out of financial assistance, the sudden timeline came as a surprise to Israeli officials. The decision appears driven by political calculations ahead of the 2028 elections, as the president seeks to reshape his party’s platform and preserve Republican control of the White House.

China Crackdown: US tech companies appear to be scaling back their commercial ties with China. According to a report, Nvidia will fulfill just 1% of the RTX chip orders placed by its Chinese customers. While the company attributed the shortfall to strong demand, the move may also reflect a broader US push to prioritize American hyperscalers’ access to computing resources. Separately, Oracle reportedly faced White House pressure to cancel a $7 billion deal with Tencent for similar reasons.

New Cyberattacks: French bank Crédit Mutuel Arkéa recently confirmed a cyberattack in which hackers breached its systems to carry out unauthorized transactions. While the bank stated that the breach was under control and customers would suffer no financial losses, the incident highlights the growing frequency and severity of cyber threats facing financial institutions. The attack comes days after a massive breach at Binance that saw the crypto exchange lose over $6 billion in digital assets.

View PDF

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with market concerns surrounding today’s midterm elections. We then turn to geopolitics, examining early indications that bilateral talks between the US and Iran could resume in the coming days. Next, we analyze China’s move to tighten regulatory oversight of AI development, as well as broader market anxieties regarding the potential for massive AI-related debt to strain global financial systems. As always, we conclude with a comprehensive review of recent domestic and international economic data.

Midterms Preview: As voters head to the polls, the market is beginning to price in the possibility of a “blue wave.” Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House of Representatives, with growing odds that they may gain control of the Senate as well. This potential shift has raised concerns on Wall Street that Democratic control of Congress could impact the AI buildout, particularly as voters continue to voice reservations regarding data centers, energy demands, and AI safety risks.

• Democrats are heavily favored to win the House, but the Senate remains highly competitive. On Polymarket, traders give Democrats a 75% chance of a full sweep, with House control priced at a 94% probability. However, traditional polling presents a much tighter picture. According to RealClearPolitics, current projections show Democrats with 47 seats and Republicans with 44 in the Senate. Of the nine remaining toss-up races, only two feature a margin wider than three points.
• Recent polling suggests that the Democrats’ advantage may partly stem from voter pushback against data center construction. Growing worries over the high cost of the AI expansion and its impact on utility bills are routinely used to oppose local developments, fueling voter support for moratoriums on new data centers.
• Potential construction delays are seen as a significant threat to the AI buildout. Major tech companies have committed nearly $1 trillion to support this expansion, but moratoriums could curb investment and disrupt ongoing projects. Such a slowdown could also weigh on earnings for key beneficiaries, such as chipmakers, if demand for hardware falls.
• The midterms are expected to favor Democrats — at least in the House — though the market impact may remain limited. While some Democrats have campaigned on constraining data-center growth, bipartisan support persists for ongoing capital investment because of its broader boost to the economy. Consequently, any post-election selloff following a Democratic sweep is likely to be temporary, whereas an unexpected Republican victory would likely support equities.

Iran Progress: Iran and the US appear to be moving closer to negotiations over a potential deal. On Monday, leaders from both nations signaled a willingness to let diplomacy work as they seek agreements on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reviving the nuclear deal. This pathway to talks remains open even as the US continues military strikes, though on a significantly smaller scale than the president had threatened in recent weeks.

• Optimism over an agreement has grown following the Supreme Leader’s decision to grant the Iranian government authority to enter negotiations. Tehran’s evolving stance suggests it is preparing to leverage its strategic position and is anticipating a likely weakening of Republican influence following the US midterm elections. This shift comes just a day after Iran indicated the possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz later this week.
• The White House is showing a willingness to let diplomacy work even as military strikes against Iran continue. On Monday, the US carried out a series of strikes on Qeshm Island, expanding an operation conducted over recent weeks and kept quiet to avoid signaling an intent to launch major combat operations. Addressing the situation, the president appeared to dial back his earlier threats of major strikes in Iran, making room for diplomatic channels to open.
• While talks appear to be moving in the right direction, there is no indication that further military action is off the table. Iran remains focused on tying peace negotiations to three key conditions: an end to the US naval blockade, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, and the easing of sanctions. Meanwhile, the US and Israel have been coordinating contingency plans to “drop the hammer” should diplomatic efforts fail to resolve the dispute.
• A resolution to the conflict remains far from guaranteed, but a breakthrough could provide vital support for equity markets heading into 2027. Restoring oil flows would help ease supply chain strains and lift global growth. Furthermore, falling energy prices should reduce inflationary pressures, lessening the need for monetary tightening. Conversely, any renewed escalation of the conflict would likely trigger the opposite outcome.

China Guardrails: Chinese regulators are working to establish safety guardrails to govern the development and application of AI. This shift toward tighter oversight reflects Beijing’s recognition of the cybersecurity threats posed by rogue AI. The initiative comes as AI models demonstrate an increasing ability to discover vulnerabilities and execute cyberattacks with minimal human oversight. Over time, there is a growing possibility that the US and China could establish a joint framework or agreement to regulate high-risk AI applications.

AI Debt Boom: There is growing speculation that AI financing demands could reach levels the market cannot absorb. According to PIMCO CEO Emmanuel Roman, capital requirements could hit $2 trillion annually over the next five years, potentially oversupplying the market. That risk would be especially acute in an economic downturn, which he warns could cause “something to break.” His remarks reflect mounting market anxiety over the financial system’s rising reliance on tech-industry debt and the risks it poses if left unchecked.

View PDF

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with a few words on the apparent stabilization of global stock markets this morning after Friday’s selloff. We specifically address whether the selloff might have represented the end of the artificial intelligence frenzy. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets today, including more signs that the war in Iran is set to continue and a planned lobbying and public relations push by AI firm OpenAI to begin after tomorrow’s midterm elections.

Global Stock Markets: Shortly before market open, US stock futures prices suggest both the broad-based S&P 500 index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index are set to recover modestly from their rout on Friday. However, some of the recovery may simply reflect that oil prices are down so far this morning on optimism over back-channel peace talks in the Middle East (we are less optimistic, as shown in the following paragraph). Still, the selloff on Friday has raised questions about whether the long-expected end of the AI investment boom may be nigh.

• In our view, it’s too soon to know for sure whether the AI boom is going into reverse. Frenzies or bubbles can continue longer than investors expect, even if they suffer short-term pullbacks.
• All the same, we continue to see many possible factors that could trip up the AI frenzy at some point, including the competitive threat from Chinese AI models, popular pushback against data centers, concern about rogue AI agents, and the threat of onerous regulation.
• Given that these factors will probably call into question the prospects and valuations of today’s AI assets over time, we think it’s a fine time for investors to ensure that their portfolios are well diversified and positioned to take advantage of the eventual rotation toward recently lagging market segments, such as stable, well-run, dividend-paying value stocks.

United States-Israel-Iran: As signs increasingly point to the US and Israel launching a major attack on Iran after the midterm elections tomorrow, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei publicly told the country’s top three military commanders that any such attack “must be met with an immediate and effective response, without geographical limitation” in order to achieve “maximum deterrence.” While the statement could be mostly posturing, it does suggest that Iran is prepared to keep fighting back hard and that global energy supplies remain at risk.

European Union-Canada: Wrapping up the EU-Canada summit in Montreal on Friday, Prime Minister Carney said Canada would accept the EU’s offer of an “associate membership,” aiming to achieve “the deepest possible partnership short of accession.” The two sides hope to flesh out the relationship — including how much Canada will contribute to the EU’s budget — by next June, despite lingering disagreements in areas such as the EU’s deforestation policies and whether Canada will be able to participate in EU public procurement.

• The arrangement shows how the EU and Canada want to strengthen their non-US relationships to better insulate themselves from Washington’s more antagonistic, less cooperative policies.
• However, it isn’t clear how much the new relationship will help the EU or Canada diversify their trade away from the US. Canada still sends approximately three-quarters of its exports to the US, even with Washington’s new tariffs and other trade barriers since early 2025, which illustrates how hard it will be for Canada to replace much of its US trade with exports and imports involving other economies.

China-Taiwan-United States: The Chinese coast guard on Saturday announced that it has stepped up patrols around Taiwan, including in the waters east of the island. According to the Chinese, the increased presence is aimed at “strengthening control over the relevant waters to effectively ensure orderly navigation and activities.” However, the expanded patrols fit a pattern suggesting Beijing is taking advantage of the new “Comprehensive Strategic Stability” (CSS) policy, which the US and China adopted to reduce tensions.

• We examined the détente-like CSS policy in our latest Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report, published on October 26, 2026.
• In the months since the CSS policy was put into place earlier this year, we have noted several instances in which the Chinese military has become more aggressive again in the South China Sea and elsewhere, suggesting it thinks it can now assert itself without fear of major US reprisals.
• Of course, the risk is that the Chinese could miscalculate and spark a confrontation with a US ally that would require Washington to act. Any such event could rekindle US-China tensions and would likely unsettle the global financial markets.

United States-China: The Federal Communications Commission late last week banned all Chinese laboratories from testing electronic devices destined for the US market starting in 2028. The ban will apply to devices including smartphones and computers. Since Chinese labs currently test and certify about 80% of such devices for the US market, the move has generated strong pushback from Beijing — another example of lower-level US agencies taking steps that could antagonize China and undermine the détente-like CSS policy.

China: Citing the latest satellite imagery, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in an updated assessment last week that China’s latest aircraft carrier could be launched as soon as 2027. The new “Type 004” carrier would be the country’s fourth and is expected to be China’s first nuclear-powered carrier. Nuclear propulsion would give the ship much more power and range than current Chinese carriers.

• If the Type 004 carrier is launched in 2027, it will still have to undergo a long period of outfitting, operational testing, and training before being commissioned around 2030.
• China would still have far fewer carriers than the US, but it continues to shift its navy toward something more like the US’s “blue water” force. Over time, that will likely give China more geopolitical and military power to challenge US interests around the globe.

US Defense Policy: While the media this fall focused on the long, 321-day deployment of the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln before it finally returned home to San Diego on October 9, recent reports say the destroyer USS Spruance has now been deployed for a post-World War II record of more than 345 days, well above the US Navy’s standard of seven months. In our view, the long deployments suggest the US cut its defense budget too far after the Cold War and downsized its armed forces too much to defend its global security interests efficiently.

• US military assets — from troops, sailors, and airmen to ships and bombers — are therefore often being run too hard or for too long, creating morale, maintenance, and safety problems.
• A key question is whether Congress will keep increasing the defense budget. Even if it does, another question is how much it will pressure major defense firms to cut their prices or use more of their resources for investment in defense production.

US Artificial Intelligence Industry: In a scoop yesterday, Axios said AI modeler OpenAI plans to launch a major lobbying and public-relations effort right after tomorrow’s midterm elections, with the goal of favorably shaping any regulations from the new Congress and easing the public backlash against AI. Among other things, the program will push for mandatory brakes on cutting-edge models and try to rebrand “data centers” as “AI compute campuses.” If it affects the regulatory and popular environment for AI firms, the program could have an impact on AI-related assets.

Global Cybersecurity Industry: Just weeks after a flurry of suspected cyberattacks caused supermarket refrigerators and freezers to malfunction across France, a series of similar attacks has apparently been launched today in multiple other European countries, ruining food worth millions of euros. We have also seen reports that at least one freezer at a US military base has been hit. The attacks not only serve as a reminder that cyberattacks remain a threat, especially with the rise of AI, but also that cybersecurity firms are likely to see increased demand.

View PDF