by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with the latest on the war in Iran, focusing on a major new attack on Saudi Arabia by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets today, including the latest on the new claim of a Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire” and the associated Russia-US diesel fuel deal, as well as signs that the US administration is preparing to toughen its regulation of the country’s artificial intelligence industry.

United States-Israel-Iran: On Saturday, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen staged an apparent missile or drone attack on a passenger terminal at an international airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The attack killed at least 12 people and injured more than 300, many of them critically, while also forcing the closure of the airport. The incident illustrates how the US-Israeli war against Iran appears to be drawing in other countries. The widening conflict therefore will pose an ongoing risk to global energy supplies and likely keep commodity prices higher than they otherwise would be.

United States-Russia-Ukraine: Ahead of a new round of multilateral talks in Miami aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war, President Trump on Friday announced a deal under which the US will waive certain sanctions against the Kremlin in return for Russia releasing large amounts of diesel fuel into global markets. The president also pressured Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries. At the same time, however, Russia launched a major drone attack on Ukraine over the weekend that damaged some of its critical energy infrastructure.

• The administration’s gambit was almost certainly aimed at bringing down diesel prices to help Republicans in the November midterm elections. However, the lack of details on the deal makes it difficult to gauge how much of an impact it could have.
• In any case, Ukrainian officials complained that the deal made it appear as if the US was simply using the Miami negotiations as a smokescreen while it negotiated with the Russians behind Kyiv’s back. By easing Russian fuel exports, the deal could help the Kremlin bring in billions of dollars in new revenues while weakening Ukraine’s bargaining position.
• News of the deal has therefore generated not only vociferous complaints from the Ukrainian government but also pushback from US lawmakers. On Saturday, for example, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) vowed to force a House vote to block any Russian oil purchases.

European Union-China: In high-level trade talks that concluded on Friday, China reportedly agreed to ratchet back its hybrid auto exports to the EU by “several million” vehicles over a four-year period. China also agreed to expedite EU applications for rare-earth export licenses and improve market access for EU goods including car parts, olive oil, and textiles, among other, lower-profile provisions.

• The bilateral agreements may help head off threatened EU trade barriers as the bloc tries to protect its industry from an onslaught of low-priced Chinese goods. Since China now faces new trade obstacles in the US, especially tariffs, Beijing probably had a strong incentive to throw the Europeans a bone in order to maintain access to the EU market.
• However, the reports we’ve seen so far suggest the agreements don’t require China to rein in its exports of fully electric vehicles to the EU. The reports also don’t point to cuts in other critical Chinese industrial or consumer exports to the EU. That will probably keep alive the possibility of an EU-China trade war down the line.

Germany: Labor Minister Bärbel Bas, a member of the center-left Social Democratic Party, abruptly resigned today, citing a recent death in the family and attacks from Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union, which leads the governing coalition. The resignation will likely further weaken Merz politically, adding to recent pressure on him to resign. It could also slow the government’s effort to reform Germany’s expensive pension system and make labor regulations more efficient.

India: Police in New Delhi on Saturday arrested thousands of youthful protesters with the Cockroach Janta Party as they tried to stage another mass demonstration against a recent purge of the nation’s electoral rolls. The authorities later released leaders of the party, but the incident still shows how the group has increasingly become a thorn in the side of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. If the protests continue and Modi’s political position weakens, it could call into question political and policy stability in India and become a headwind for Indian stocks.

Indonesia: Reports over the weekend said the government has proposed a moratorium on new nickel smelters to curb global overproduction, boost prices, and protect local industries across its vast minerals sector. The proposed restrictions would halt the construction of smelters that produce semi-finished nickel products, which make up more than half of Indonesia’s industrial nickel output and are key to goods ranging from stainless steel to electric-vehicle batteries. If implemented, the moratorium could add to global price pressures.

US Economic Policy: Prof. Robert E. Hall of Stanford University and Prof. Michael Woodford of Columbia University today were awarded the Nobel Prize in economics for their work on the role of household and business expectations in providing economic stability. Their research highlights how important it is for governments and central banks to communicate clearly about their plans and their reasons for intervening in the economy. According to their research, such communication allows households and businesses to make better economic decisions.

US Wealth Distribution: In its latest Survey of Consumer Finances report, released Friday, the Federal Reserve said median family net worth rose just 2% from 2022 to 2025, after stripping out consumer price inflation. The data shows that median wealth for a family in the top 10% of earners increased 31%, but that was mostly offset by an outright decline in real wealth for the bottom 40% of earners. Coupled with weak real income growth for low earners, the disparity in wealth may point to deeper political polarization and growing popularity for leftist politicians.

US Artificial Intelligence Industry: Officials with the White House Super Intelligence Task Force have told Axios that they are now requiring AI companies to notify them of AI security incidents and take steps to correct them. According to the officials, “This notification and remediation process is not optional … It is a critical national security obligation.” The statement suggests the administration is backing away from its hands-off, low-regulation approach to AI as its desire to promote innovation collides with security and political issues.

• The change of heart apparently stems in part from an incident in which Anthropic testing models submitted almost two dozen nonimmigrant visa applications through the publicly available form on the State Department’s website. Separately, police in Philadelphia say they received a false homicide tip submitted by an Anthropic model.
• It’s not clear how far the administration’s new willingness to regulate will go, but if it becomes onerous, it could be yet another potential threat to the AI investment boom.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with concerns surrounding AI companies and their ability to meet soaring investor expectations. We then turn to geopolitics, examining the US-China AI race and its broader diplomatic fallout. Next, we briefly cover Italy’s recent electoral reform, provide an update on US-Iran relations, and examine the Treasury’s appointment of a controversial former Fed nominee. As always, we conclude with a roundup of key domestic and international economic data.

AI Concerns: As major AI labs prepare to go public, investors are once again questioning their valuations. On Thursday, OpenAI reportedly projected $20 billion less annualized revenue than investors had anticipated. This shortfall has added to market jitters and sparked fresh speculation about a bubble, even as the broader impact of the AI boom becomes increasingly evident across the economy. While the miss probably won’t deter these companies from going public, it is likely to raise concerns about the viability of the AI boom.

• OpenAI recently told investors it expects to report annualized revenue of $50 billion at the end of September, well below the roughly $70 billion figure reported earlier. The earlier number rested on a reported 70% jump from a $40 billion annualized rate in July, a baseline the company has since revised to $30 billion in an updated presentation. This discrepancy comes as investors have sought to make OpenAI’s figures comparable with those of its rival Anthropic, which calculates revenue differently.
• Doubts about the company’s figures come as it and its rival Anthropic prepare to go public. Both companies are looking to the equity market to help fund the infrastructure needed to serve customers and train their models. They have also come under scrutiny because their expenses far exceed their revenue, raising worries that the two companies are building faster than demand can justify.

• Spending by AI companies and the hyperscalers has been a key source of support for the economy. Business investment, much of it driven by AI, is projected to account for more than half of GDP growth in the third quarter of 2026, according to the Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNow estimate. The AI investment boost is expected to keep economic growth above its potential through 2028.
• OpenAI’s revenue miss may simply be an error, but it could also signal that demand is not as strong as hoped. While this alone is unlikely to end the boom, it could lead to a slowdown in investment, which could then weigh on overall sentiment. However, we think the slowdown would likely benefit the sector, as companies that build too fast typically create overcapacity, which undermines their prospects for long-term profitability.

AI Race: The competition for AI supremacy between the US and China is intensifying. On Thursday, reports revealed that Beijing is accelerating its nationwide data center expansion to satisfy surging demand for computing power. Meanwhile, Washington is moving to secure critical mineral supply chains to reduce foreign dependencies. These parallel pushes underscore how direct government intervention is reshaping markets as both superpowers champion domestic tech leaders on the global stage.

• China is actively building data center hubs to link its energy-rich regions with high-demand urban centers. Under its “Eastern Data, Western Computing” initiative, Beijing is constructing major computing facilities in the country’s resource-abundant western provinces to avoid driving up land and electricity costs in the densely populated east. This nationwide push aims to close the gap with the US, which currently leads global data center capacity with roughly 56 gigawatts compared with China’s 24 gigawatts.
• At the same time, the US is making strides toward securing the critical minerals essential for the AI expansion. The federal government continues to back domestic resource development to reduce its reliance on Beijing. On Thursday, Houston-based Hertha Metals announced that it is nearing commercial production of high-purity iron — a key component in tech-grade permanent magnets. This progress aligns with broader US efforts to stockpile strategic materials following recent Chinese export restrictions.

• This intensifying rivalry reflects a delicate balancing act as both nations attempt to compete while maintaining a peaceful coexistence. Although China faces fewer supply chain bottlenecks for its data center expansion, it still lacks the sophisticated equipment required to take a decisive lead. Meanwhile, US energy constraints and critical resource shortages make it difficult for Washington to pull further ahead. As a result, both superpowers are still tethered by mutual dependencies.
• The economic decoupling between the US and China will probably happen much more slowly than many anticipate. Although both superpowers wish to operate independently, they remain deeply reliant on each other’s supply chains. Nevertheless, as they gradually break away, both nations are expected to stockpile critical AI resources — a trend that could drive up global commodity prices. Consequently, the ongoing AI buildout could introduce persistent inflationary pressures worldwide.

Meloni Win: Italy’s parliament approved Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s proposed electoral overhaul, shifting to a proportional representation system with a 42% majority bonus. Designed to streamline government formation and prevent post-election deadlock, the law grants winning alliances additional seats to secure a functional majority in both houses. The legislative win restores political momentum for Meloni following the defeat of her earlier judicial reform referendum.

Attack Off? President Trump has ruled out the possibility of attacking Iran before the midterm elections. His decision to pause military action follows recent “productive” diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran. Additionally, political considerations appear to be playing a significant role, as Republicans struggle to maintain control of Congress amid public backlash over rising oil and gasoline prices driven by the conflict.

Treasury Hires Outsider: The Treasury has appointed economist Judy Shelton as a currency policy adviser. Her 2019 nomination to the Federal Reserve was blocked due to concerns over her political objectivity and conflicting economic views — specifically, her advocacy for easy monetary policy despite her historical preference for restrictive frameworks. Her appointment underlines the Treasury’s interest in rethinking financial strategy to increase resilience against foreign competitors.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with thoughts on the FOMC meeting as Fed officials focus on the AI buildout. Next, we examine rising civil unrest in Europe and why it may not be a reason to abandon the region just yet. We then briefly discuss Russia’s pickup in petroleum product exports, signs of a broadening conflict in the Middle East, and markets’ waning enthusiasm for chipmakers. As always, we conclude with a review of recent domestic and international economic data.

Hawkish Minutes: The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting revealed that the AI buildout played a role in the Fed’s decision to raise rates for the first time since 2023. Officials expressed concern that AI-related investment was accelerating faster than many had realized and was beginning to spill over into other parts of the economy. Those worries come amid signs that the buildout could contribute to an overheating economy. If that sentiment persists, the Fed may be prepared to tighten policy further to mitigate the buildout’s impact on the broader economy.

• Although Fed officials acknowledged that higher oil prices would add to inflation, most of the discussion appears to have centered on AI. Several members noted that the AI buildout could intensify inflationary pressures just as the effects of tariffs, which had contributed to rising core goods prices, begin to fade. More worrisome was that officials noted business contacts were having greater success passing higher costs on to customers, raising the risk that inflation expectations could move higher.
• The risk of higher inflation expectations appears to be driven, at least in part, by a sudden rise in growth estimates. The latest staff projections showed growth outpacing potential into 2028, a more optimistic outlook than at the previous meeting, when the staff expected growth to only slightly outpace potential through 2027. The upgrade came largely from a pickup in business investment, stronger investment spending, and supportive financial conditions.

• While the minutes were largely hawkish, a few officials offered a more dovish view of the economy. They noted that although financial conditions remained broadly supportive of growth, housing was the exception, with mortgage rates still elevated. Some officials also raised concerns about the labor market, noting that while layoffs have remained low, so has hiring. Others observed that aggregate wage growth was moderate and consistent with inflation returning to 2%.
• September’s meeting minutes revealed that the Fed is clearly leaning more hawkish, but that may not be enough to guarantee another rate hike. The latest jobs report, which showed a sharp slowdown in hiring, has weighed on expectations for a hike at the October 27-28 meeting. We continue to believe that further hikes will depend on the incoming data as the Fed works to bring inflation back to its 2% target.

Europe Problems: Several political issues are coming to a head across the Continent. The most notable is a wave of protests in a number of EU member states, with demonstrators pointing to high property prices and the cost and quality of education. The unrest comes as the region contends with mounting concerns over its debt burden and elevated energy prices. That said, Europe’s resilience may be underestimated.

• Protests that began in Spain and France have since spread to Belgium and possibly Austria and have led to arrests as demonstrators press for change. In Spain, the anger centers on private investment and mass tourism, which residents blame for pushing home prices out of reach. Elsewhere in the bloc, the grievance is underinvestment, particularly in higher education, where universities are seen as overcrowded and increasingly expensive.
• These protests come as the region appears headed for a political realignment. Across Europe, voters are shifting away from establishment candidates and toward populist (and most recently right-wing) alternatives. Support is rising for Vox in Spain, the National Rally in France, Vlaams Belang in Belgium, and the AfD in Germany. The trend points to growing demand for policies that prioritize domestic interests, such as higher public spending and tighter immigration controls.
• The rising popularity of populists is likely less of a bad omen than markets are pricing in. Although populists have long been viewed as risky for investors, many populist governments have proven less damaging to public finances than feared. Portugal, Spain, and Italy, for example, all have populist governments, yet each is expected to see its debt-to-GDP ratio fall over the next five years.

• Rising discontent and higher energy prices should be a short-term headwind for the euro area, but opportunities remain. Even during this period of rising inflation and tighter monetary policy, the eurozone has remained resilient, which suggests the economy still rests on solid foundations. Investors therefore should not be deterred by the civil unrest, as it is unlikely to undermine the long-term viability of companies operating in the region.

Russian Shipments: Oil product exports from Russia have begun to rise even amid the conflict and government restrictions. These foreign sales have emerged as the country seeks to prevent overstocking now that domestic supplies have stabilized. Previously, the country had limited sales of oil products abroad after Ukrainian attacks on its refineries curbed production. The sales suggest Russia may have enough to satisfy domestic demand.

Broadening Conflict: The US appears to be preparing to increase pressure on Iran, while Saudi Arabia faces further attacks. The Pentagon has begun laying the groundwork for additional strikes on Iran, which could occur before the midterms. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has faced an attack on one of its airports by Houthi forces. The conflict in the Middle East appears to be spreading and may add to the pressure on energy.

Chip Shrug: Investors appear to be less impressed by earnings from chipmakers. Samsung reported a ninefold rise in operating profit, yet the result still fell short of investor expectations for a higher increase. Additionally, TSMC’s 51% jump in revenue failed to excite investors, who had hoped for more. The muted share-price reaction comes at a time when investors appear to be more worried about the future of the investment boom.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with thoughts on the rise in attacks on ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of a broader conflict. Next, we examine growing speculation that the Treasury may reduce issuance of 20-year bonds and what that could mean for yields. We then discuss concerns about a possible plague outbreak in Russia and signs of escalating trade tensions between the EU and China. As always, we conclude with a review of recent domestic and international economic data.

Iran Troubles: Although oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have increased, shipping risks remain elevated. Reports on Tuesday indicated that Iran had stepped up attacks on vessels transiting the strait. The escalation comes as Tehran and Washington appear no closer to an agreement and the conflict shows signs of widening. Continued attacks are likely to deepen concerns about disruptions at this critical supply-chain chokepoint as the conflict drags on.

• UK Maritime Trade Operations has reported nine attacks in the Strait of Hormuz so far this month — half of the total for the entire month of September. This escalation appears designed to deter maritime traffic following a surge in regional energy exports. In September, Gulf oil producers surpassed pre-war shipment levels for at least half the month. The uptick in transit spanned several key export routes, including Hormuz, the Red Sea, and pipeline terminals.
• Iran’s escalating attacks on commercial shipping may be a calculated effort to maintain leverage during ongoing nuclear negotiations with the White House. Vice President JD Vance, a primary representative in the talks, has maintained that any deal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz must include a concrete agreement by Tehran to reduce its uranium enrichment capacity. Vance also noted that Washington faces additional complexity due to an opaque decision-making apparatus in Tehran.
• As talks between Washington and Tehran continue, fighting elsewhere in the Middle East is intensifying. Overnight, the Houthis reportedly attacked Aden International Airport amid a Saudi-backed counteroffensive to retake territory near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Saudi Arabia is supporting allied Yemeni government forces, marking renewed hostilities between Riyadh and the Houthis.
• So far, markets have focused on the conflict’s impact on oil prices, paying less attention to the shift in price momentum. Although crude remains above pre-conflict levels, it has stopped making new highs and is trading within a relatively narrow range. This loss of upward price pressure suggests the initial price shock may be fading even if the worst of the conflict isn’t over. That could support the wider markets as investors reassess the risks.

Long-Bond Jitters: Investors are weighing potential Treasury interventions ahead of next month’s quarterly refunding announcement. BNP Paribas warned Tuesday against trimming 20-year bond supply, cautioning that the move could backfire. The note follows comments in which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled active management, telling Axios that while he “may not win every hand,” he will “win over time.” Speculation surrounding intervention continues to hang over the bond market.

• A new report from BNP Paribas warns that reducing or eliminating 20-year Treasury bond issuance could be perceived as a panic move. The firm cautions that, rather than driving yields sustainably lower, the strategy could backfire, leading to higher yields and reduced liquidity. BNP Paribas also recommended taking a short position on 30-year Treasurys, setting a yield target of 5.80%, up from the current 5.66%.
• BNP Paribas’s warning comes as Bessent maintains that the market is overreacting and pushing bond prices below their equilibrium value. Last month, the Treasury attempted to improve liquidity by announcing a larger-than-expected buyback of long-duration bonds. However, bond yields rose following the announcement as fresh concerns over the conflict in Iran combined with market skepticism regarding Treasury intervention to spark a renewed sell-off.
• The White House maintains that economic growth will be sufficient to rein in the national debt. While markets remain skeptical, this strategy has historical precedent. A Brookings Institution study noted that the dot-com boom of the late 1990s drove nearly 60% of that decade’s deficit reduction. With third-quarter GDP projected to expand at an annualized rate of 5%, a sustained AI boom could produce a similar fiscal windfall.
• Trimming 20-year issuance would be a concerted effort to lower yields and trim borrowing costs, but its impact will probably be short-lived. While it should lift demand for other maturities along the curve, it leaves the root cause unaddressed: a persistent oversupply of government debt. If the Treasury’s tools fall short, the White House may have to seek fiscal remedies to contain yields — either spending cuts or tax increases — though the latter looks unlikely unless Democrats gain control of both chambers of Congress following the midterm elections.

Russian Plague: Concerns are growing regarding a potential pneumonic plague outbreak in Russia. While authorities have confirmed only a single fatality to date, government officials are keeping a close watch on the situation. On Tuesday, President Trump announced he would speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin about the matter. Though the overall risk that the plague will spread remains low, apprehension lingers that the disease could lead to another pandemic.

China-EU: Trade tensions between the EU and China have begun to escalate. On Wednesday, Beijing warned that it has tools to retaliate if the bloc moves to limit trade. The warning follows a push by France and Germany to curb Chinese imports into the EU, potentially including blocking goods that benefit from unfair government subsidies. The escalation is another example of countries moving away from globalization as they look to shore up domestic industries.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with the most recent security incident that threatens to further undermine popular support for artificial intelligence. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets today, including the latest signs that the war in Iran could expand regionally and a new order by President Trump that is designed to help bring down diesel fuel prices.

Global Artificial Intelligence Industry: At a cabinet meeting today, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said there is evidence that a recent computer hack of his country’s top financial firms used cutting-edge AI tools, “causing considerable public concern and anxiety.” Other reporting suggests the specific tool deployed was Artex, a Chinese-language, open-source model that uses AI to find and test computer system vulnerabilities.

• The South Korean incident indicates the long-feared age of AI hacking attacks has now arrived.
• The result could be even more negative public perception of AI and stronger calls for regulation. Coupled with issues such as the competitive threat from low-cost Chinese models and public backlash against data centers, that could trigger a reversal in the ongoing AI investment boom.

United States-Israel-Iran: Saudi and Yemeni forces yesterday launched a surprise offensive to take back control of the Yemeni port of Mokha from the occupying Houthi rebels. The offensive is designed to reduce the risk to globally important energy shipments through the Bab al-Mandeb waterway. That risk has risen now that the US has launched a blockade against Iran and Tehran is looking to use its militant proxies across the region to attack US and Israeli interests.

• In fact, the Houthis today reportedly launched drone or missile attacks against two Saudi airports.
• Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and NATO member Turkey have therefore triggered their new mutual defense pact today for the first time, aiming to ensure the rapid deployment of Pakistani and Turkish “military forces and capabilities” to Saudi Arabia. The move threatens to turn the US-Israeli war against Iran into a full-blown regional conflict, with continued risks to global energy supplies.

US Energy Market: President Trump yesterday signed an order allowing “red diesel,” which is exempt from the 24-cent per gallon federal fuel tax, to be used for any purpose through the end of the year. Red diesel can normally be used only for off-road vehicles and farm equipment. The new order extends its use to on-road cars and trucks, potentially saving drivers a few percentage points off regular diesel’s current cost of about $6.32 per gallon.

• The move is clearly aimed at boosting Republican chances in the November midterm elections. However, the savings would be so small that the order may not make a difference in the balloting.
• At the same time, exempting more diesel fuel from the fuel tax will bite into federal revenues, making the budget deficit bigger than it otherwise would be.

European Union-China: German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron yesterday said they’ve agreed to support tighter anti-dumping and anti-coercion tools that the EU could use to protect its industrial sector from the current onslaught of ultra-low-cost Chinese exports. With Berlin and Paris in agreement on the tools, the EU is now anticipated to get final sign-off on the plan in the coming months. Implementing such tools would likely invite retaliation from China, but the move could also help slow the hollowing out of EU industry.

Germany: August Hanning, who led the Federal Intelligence Service from 1998 to 2005, was arrested today on suspicion of illegally obtaining classified information and passing it to a foreign agent. A former bureau chief of Hanning’s was also arrested on similar charges. The presence of such alleged high-level moles in the intelligence agency reflects Russia’s long success in recruiting Germans. It will therefore probably be a political embarrassment for Chancellor Merz, who is already coming under pressure to resign due to a string of state election losses.

France: With the country’s burgeoning debt prompting investors to demand ever-higher yields to buy French bonds, far-right leader Marine Le Pen today proposed a “golden rule” capping national debt at 60% of gross domestic product and reducing the public deficit by 0.5% of GDP each year until it is “close to a balanced budget.” Le Pen, who is leading opinion polls ahead of next year’s presidential election, also said she would enshrine the rule in the constitution via a referendum.

• Many investors fear the rise of far-right populist politicians because they assume those leaders will adopt profligate fiscal policies as a sop to their working-class base. However, far-right leaders such as Italian Prime Minister Meloni generally adopted much more mainstream policies when they came to power at the national or regional level.
• Le Pen’s proposal is likely intended to allay concerns about how she would govern while also piling pressure on France’s centrist political elite for allowing the country’s finances to become so precarious.

Italy: At a cabinet meeting late last week, the right-wing populist League party, which is a member of Prime Minister Meloni’s coalition government, managed to push through a deal calling for smaller defense budget hikes in the coming years. The move by the isolationist party reportedly reflects both war fatigue related to the conflict in Ukraine and a desire to spend more on domestic civilian priorities. The deal suggests European politics are becoming less supportive of defense spending, although we still believe military budgets will keep rising into the future.

India: In what could expand into the latest in a string of major protest headaches for Prime Minister Modi, hundreds of opposition officials are demonstrating against Gyanesh Kumar, the head of the country’s Election Commission, for a recent purge of voter rolls that they say benefited Modi’s Hindu-nationalist political party. The revisions reportedly removed some 130 million names, a high proportion of them belonging to Muslims.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with our thoughts on the risk of the economy overheating. We then turn to AI, examining the latest incident of agents going rogue online. Next, we briefly cover the Eurozone’s better-than-expected growth, a possible US ban on fuel exports, and the latest developments in US-China talks. As always, we conclude with a review of recent domestic and international economic data.

Growth Unchained? Despite headwinds in the global economy, there is a surprising amount of resilience in the US. The latest PMI report from S&P Global showed that US economic activity expanded at its fastest pace since 2021. The stronger-than-expected reading has had both positive and negative interpretations in the markets as it shows there is still a lot of momentum in the economy but also signals there may be some evidence of overheating. As a result, there was a sharp lift in Treasury yields.

• In August, the S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 58.7. The strong reading was driven by an acceleration in manufacturing, which jumped from 53.9 to 57.0, while the services PMI rose from 56.0 to 58.4. Both indexes were driven by a noticeable increase in production and output, which in turn has led to a surge in employment and wage pressures. However, one caveat is that there were also signs of higher input costs and sale prices.
• The PMI report has added to concerns that the economy is overheating. The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow model shows that recent data suggests third quarter growth is running at an annualized rate of 5.1%, a significant acceleration from the previous month’s estimate of 1.5%. While consumption is strong, much of the increase was driven by a marked rise in investment spending. PMI surveys specifically named a surge in tech and defense spending.

• Stronger expectations of GDP growth have weighed on market sentiment due to concerns over monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has stated that an overheating economy is one of the reasons the Fed was forced to hike at its previous meeting, with most officials projecting at least one more rate hike this year, and four officials favoring an additional two hikes. As a result, concerns about inflation and tighter Fed policy have lifted long-end yields, with the 10-year yield rising above 5.11%.
• The acceleration in economic activity is likely a sign of an overstimulated economy, which could force the Fed to proceed with additional hikes. However, higher interest rates are only one side of the equation and are likely to have only a short-term impact on equities. Assuming growth remains fairly broad-based, this should point to an increase in corporate earnings, meaning there could be a lot of buying opportunities in the market if equity prices fall due to Fed concerns.

Rogue AI: Another hack involving an AI agent has led to calls for more oversight of the technology. The latest hacking attempt involved an Australian health services site, in what is now the highest-profile breach since these cyberattacks became public. Concerns about agents have forced the government to find a balanced approach to resolving safety concerns while still allowing the technology to grow. Resolving these issues, on top of other concerns surrounding AI, remains key to maintaining momentum in the trade.

• According to Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, the hacking incident targeted the Medicare Statistical Reporting portal and was able to access both public and non-public profiles. OpenAI discovered the breach in August and reported it to the government earlier this month. Following the incident, the government has now launched an investigation into what other government agencies may have been impacted, amid concerns that both local and federal agencies may have been exposed.
• The breach of a government agency comes on the heels of several hacking incidents within the last couple of months. The White House has consistently maintained that these concerns may be a bit overblown, particularly when it comes to the more apocalyptic claims. However, it has taken steps toward light-touch oversight by establishing an oversight agency modeled after the Space Force, which is rumored to be headed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, one of the administration’s most vocal advocates regarding these concerns.
• Concerns over AI may raise doubts around the recent momentum, though likely not enough to alter it. Given the White House’s push to win the AI race and outpace China, it will likely avoid any severe regulation that could slow the pace of advancement as AI could be central to the future of warfare. As a result, we think the administration is willing to tolerate such incidents as long as they don’t lead to a systemic problem, such as an intrusion into the financial system.
• While safety concerns are likely to weigh on sentiment and possibly lead to some political scrutiny, they are not the biggest threat to the AI boom. So far, the issues that remain of greatest concern are escalating competition from China, overly high earnings expectations, and possible infrastructure constraints due to concerns about data center capacity. While all these problems are present, none appears to pose an imminent threat.

Eurozone Surprise: The S&P Global PMI for the eurozone came in stronger than expected. Last month, economic activity accelerated to its fastest pace since April 2023. The pickup was widely attributed to an increase in services activity, but manufacturing was also solid. Germany and France stood out as strong performers, with the latter moving out of contraction territory for the first time in 10 months. The improvement in the PMI suggests resilience in the economy in the face of rising energy prices.

Diesel Ban: There is a growing push from lawmakers to help contain the rise in diesel prices. More recently, the White House has considered putting in place a diesel export ban to help stem rising costs. While companies have pushed back against the notion, the move could calm some of the political backlash the administration has received from farming states that rely on the fuel. However, the move is likely to lead to higher diesel prices abroad.

China-US Meeting: The two largest economies in the world have met in Washington to hold talks about relations between the two countries. Following the arrival of the Chinese delegation, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that the countries had agreed to a two-month truce. While there is little hope for a major breakthrough during the talks, the truce is likely to provide the market with more stability heading into 2027. The move is a reminder that the White House continues to pursue a comprehensive trade deal with China.

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