Daily Comment (November 5, 2026)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with our thoughts on the role that state governors could play in curbing the AI buildout. We then turn to national security, examining why the president might shift more attention abroad now that the midterms are over. Next, we briefly cover Moscow’s deepening ties with Iran, as well as the two Senate races that remain unresolved. As always, we conclude with a review of recent domestic and international economic data.

Governors and Data Centers: While financial markets have focused heavily on shifting power in Congress, changes in state governorships could prove just as consequential. Following the midterm elections, Democrats picked up five additional gubernatorial seats, bringing their total to 28. This shift comes at a time when local communities are pressing state governments to regulate data centers over concerns about their strain on public utilities. The change in party control has raised worries that stricter regulations may follow.

  • While two gubernatorial races remain unresolved, Democrats are set to hold a majority of governorships for the first time in 16 years. The two contests up for grabs are in Kansas and Alaska, with the former leaning toward a Democratic victory and the latter heading toward a ranked-choice tabulation. Much of the party’s strong performance was driven by promises to address the rapid construction of data centers, a key issue that fueled Democratic wins in Texas, Ohio, and Georgia.
  • Data centers had become a major issue in the months leading up to the midterms. Earlier this year, Maine’s legislature passed the first statewide moratorium on new large data centers, but the governor vetoed it, leaving New York as the first state to impose one. These pauses are designed to allow time to study the facilities’ impacts. Several other states, including Texas, which has one of the largest concentrations of data centers, have pursued similar measures.
  • Even with the gains for Democrats in several gubernatorial races, the implications for data centers remain unclear, as moratoriums vary in scope from state to state. For example, Maine’s proposed moratorium would have had limited exceptions, while New York’s targets only new large data center construction, excluding projects already in the works. This variance suggests that while some construction may be paused, a moratorium does not necessarily mean an outright end to projects.
  • Time will tell how Democrats will approach data centers, especially since the facilities have been a major engine of economic growth. Additional restrictions or moratoriums would likely act as a headwind to investment spending, at least in the near term. However, they are unlikely to end the spending spree altogether. That could change if restrictions raise project costs to the point where data centers become unprofitable, although there is currently no evidence that this is the case.

National Security Pivot: With the midterm elections concluded and opposition majorities set to control both houses of Congress, the president is expected to shift focus toward international affairs. Constrained domestically, his administration is likely to prioritize high-stakes foreign policy objectives: resolving conflicts in Ukraine and Iran and finalizing a trade deal with China. While such second-term pivots are common, the geopolitical stakes make this transition unusually high-impact.

  • Following the midterm results, the White House will likely face tighter constraints on its authority. Having campaigned on rolling back key initiatives from the president’s first two years, Democrats are expected to target immigration enforcement policies and social benefit cuts. The administration’s judicial appointments could encounter fierce resistance as opposition lawmakers move to block further court stackings. Congressional investigations into several White House officials are also widely expected.
  • Although Democrats may attempt to check executive power abroad, foreign policy remains a key arena where the Trump administration retains broad latitude. Presidents hold significant constitutional and statutory authority over national security, including limited military actions, trade negotiations, and tariff enforcement. These unilateral powers afford the president a critical avenue to define his foreign policy legacy despite legislative gridlock at home.
  • Despite the president’s authority, the next two years of his foreign policy may be less disruptive to markets than the previous two. With the exception of his stance toward Europe, he is likely to take a lighter touch than before as he seeks to secure lasting deals. He has already signaled that he wants diplomacy to work regarding a deal with Iran, made strides to soften the US stance toward Moscow to help resolve the conflict in Ukraine, and appears set to establish a framework for a trade deal with China.
  • The Democratic takeover of Congress may shift political volatility away from foreign policy and toward domestic issues as lawmakers gear up for the next election cycle. With a divided government, the White House could ramp up battles over the national deficit while dialing back more extreme foreign policy moves to win back moderate voters. If so, the next year should see more stable energy markets, providing a favorable backdrop for risk assets.

Moscow Deepens Ties: Over the last few years, Russia has provided continuous military support to Iran. A new report states that Moscow has agreed to supply Tehran with 90 missile launchers, despite facing ongoing setbacks in its war with Ukraine. While the delivery is not expected to be a game changer on the battlefield, the move suggests that the two conflicts are becoming increasingly intertwined. Russia and China’s involvement in Iran is expected to be a key topic of discussion when the parties meet at the ASEAN conference later this month.

Senate Races: Two US Senate races remain too close to call, with Democrats holding narrow leads in both Mississippi and Alaska. The Alaska contest, where the margin is roughly 700 votes, faces intense scrutiny following allegations that the race was influenced by an independent candidate who shares a name with Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan.

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Daily Comment (November 4, 2026)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with our assessment of the midterm election results and their potential implications for markets. We then turn to AI, examining how growing scrutiny of debt and cash flow could shape the sustainability of the AI trade. Next, we briefly cover a shift in US foreign aid policy, US tech firms’ cooling ties with China, and a cyberattack on a French bank. As always, we conclude with a review of recent domestic and international economic data.

Democrats Sweep: Following the midterm elections, Democrats have regained control of both chambers of Congress. Although several races remain uncalled, the party is on track for roughly 225 to 232 seats in the House of Representatives and a 54-seat majority in the Senate. This decisive victory will likely prompt a reevaluation of key national priorities, including foreign policy, federal investment in AI, and deficit-reduction strategies. That said, while markets prepare for political friction, we think common ground is possible.

  • The election results confirm that the Democrats have won, though the scale of their victory remains unsettled. Several seats are still up for grabs as of this writing. Two Senate races, in Mississippi and Alaska, are too close to call, with the former leaning Democratic and the latter leaning Republican. With Democrats favored to gain more seats, they are likely to have greater sway over policy.
  • The Republicans’ loss represents a major setback for the president’s agenda, as the Democratic victory is likely to slow legislative momentum. Calling for swift oversight, some lawmakers have already urged investigations into the White House. While these inquiries are unlikely to result in formal convictions or removals, they will create significant political gridlock and effectively block the passage of major, controversial legislation.
  • The change in the composition of Congress is likely to shape several policy initiatives with implications for markets. In the run-up to the election, debate intensified over data centers and their energy demands, tariffs, and limits on the president’s authority to engage in foreign conflicts, all of which are likely to be addressed over the next two years. With the debt ceiling expected to be reached in 2027, lawmakers will also likely need to confront the growing deficit.
  • Following the results, the White House may be more willing to work across the aisle than expected. President Trump has previously demonstrated a willingness to forge bipartisan deals when feasible, most notably with COVID-19 relief legislation and criminal justice reform, and we anticipate a similar approach moving forward. Nevertheless, investors should prepare for potential volatility stemming from fiscal deficit debates and the threat of a government shutdown.

AI Rally: AI hardware suppliers remain at the heart of the AI buildout. On Tuesday, two major AI suppliers issued strong outlooks, signaling that demand for specialized equipment remains high. This upbeat forecasts come as investor confidence in the broader AI rally has faltered amid fears that rising, debt-fueled spending could trigger a slowdown. Nevertheless, attention is increasingly shifting away from long-term sustainability doubts and back toward the robust, ongoing sales of core suppliers.

  • AMD, a major chipmaker, and Super Micro Computer, a leading provider of AI server infrastructure, both delivered stronger-than-expected revenue guidance. AMD projected fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $17 billion, topping analyst estimates of $16.3 billion. Meanwhile, Super Micro raised its quarterly revenue forecast to $19.5 billion, significantly outpacing expectations. These impressive outlooks have reassured investors and helped ease fears of a potential AI spending slowdown.
  • The performance of AI equipment makers has been viewed as a gauge of the AI rally’s overall sustainability, especially as weak results from cloud companies fuel skepticism. Over the past two weeks, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta all saw their shares sink after earnings amid concerns that heavy spending, rising debt, and, in some cases, weaker results could hurt future profitability. Microsoft was the exception, with its shares initially rising after earnings on the back of solid revenue and positive cash flow.
  • Debt and cash flow continue to be major themes for the AI trade. In recent months, cloud providers’ reliance on debt, particularly among hyperscalers, has helped drive cash flow higher for many AI suppliers. To keep its own revenue growing, Nvidia has started financing some of its sales to smaller cloud companies that lack the same ability to borrow. As a result, a slowdown in credit markets that prevents these firms from borrowing large sums to fund the buildout could weigh on the AI rally.
  • The strong performance from AI equipment makers should help sustain the rally, but investors should not be complacent. Recent earnings show that markets are growing more skeptical about how much momentum the AI rally has left, which explains the volatility in recent weeks. Still, investors should not panic. As the saying often attributed to John Maynard Keynes goes, markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Diversifying now is a prudent way to build in some protection in case sentiment shifts.

Foreign Aid: President Trump announced that the US plans to terminate military aid to Israel by the end of 2026. Although both nations had previously discussed a gradual phase-out of financial assistance, the sudden timeline came as a surprise to Israeli officials. The decision appears driven by political calculations ahead of the 2028 elections, as the president seeks to reshape his party’s platform and preserve Republican control of the White House.

China Crackdown: US tech companies appear to be scaling back their commercial ties with China. According to a report, Nvidia will fulfill just 1% of the RTX chip orders placed by its Chinese customers. While the company attributed the shortfall to strong demand, the move may also reflect a broader US push to prioritize American hyperscalers’ access to computing resources. Separately, Oracle reportedly faced White House pressure to cancel a $7 billion deal with Tencent for similar reasons.

New Cyberattacks: French bank Crédit Mutuel Arkéa recently confirmed a cyberattack in which hackers breached its systems to carry out unauthorized transactions. While the bank stated that the breach was under control and customers would suffer no financial losses, the incident highlights the growing frequency and severity of cyber threats facing financial institutions. The attack comes days after a massive breach at Binance that saw the crypto exchange lose over $6 billion in digital assets.

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Daily Comment (November 3, 2026)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment opens with market concerns surrounding today’s midterm elections. We then turn to geopolitics, examining early indications that bilateral talks between the US and Iran could resume in the coming days. Next, we analyze China’s move to tighten regulatory oversight of AI development, as well as broader market anxieties regarding the potential for massive AI-related debt to strain global financial systems. As always, we conclude with a comprehensive review of recent domestic and international economic data.

Midterms Preview: As voters head to the polls, the market is beginning to price in the possibility of a “blue wave.” Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House of Representatives, with growing odds that they may gain control of the Senate as well. This potential shift has raised concerns on Wall Street that Democratic control of Congress could impact the AI buildout, particularly as voters continue to voice reservations regarding data centers, energy demands, and AI safety risks.

  • Democrats are heavily favored to win the House, but the Senate remains highly competitive. On Polymarket, traders give Democrats a 75% chance of a full sweep, with House control priced at a 94% probability. However, traditional polling presents a much tighter picture. According to RealClearPolitics, current projections show Democrats with 47 seats and Republicans with 44 in the Senate. Of the nine remaining toss-up races, only two feature a margin wider than three points.
  • Recent polling suggests that the Democrats’ advantage may partly stem from voter pushback against data center construction. Growing worries over the high cost of the AI expansion and its impact on utility bills are routinely used to oppose local developments, fueling voter support for moratoriums on new data centers.
  • Potential construction delays are seen as a significant threat to the AI buildout. Major tech companies have committed nearly $1 trillion to support this expansion, but moratoriums could curb investment and disrupt ongoing projects. Such a slowdown could also weigh on earnings for key beneficiaries, such as chipmakers, if demand for hardware falls.
  • The midterms are expected to favor Democrats — at least in the House — though the market impact may remain limited. While some Democrats have campaigned on constraining data-center growth, bipartisan support persists for ongoing capital investment because of its broader boost to the economy. Consequently, any post-election selloff following a Democratic sweep is likely to be temporary, whereas an unexpected Republican victory would likely support equities.

Iran Progress: Iran and the US appear to be moving closer to negotiations over a potential deal. On Monday, leaders from both nations signaled a willingness to let diplomacy work as they seek agreements on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reviving the nuclear deal. This pathway to talks remains open even as the US continues military strikes, though on a significantly smaller scale than the president had threatened in recent weeks.

  • Optimism over an agreement has grown following the Supreme Leader’s decision to grant the Iranian government authority to enter negotiations. Tehran’s evolving stance suggests it is preparing to leverage its strategic position and is anticipating a likely weakening of Republican influence following the US midterm elections. This shift comes just a day after Iran indicated the possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz later this week.
  • The White House is showing a willingness to let diplomacy work even as military strikes against Iran continue. On Monday, the US carried out a series of strikes on Qeshm Island, expanding an operation conducted over recent weeks and kept quiet to avoid signaling an intent to launch major combat operations. Addressing the situation, the president appeared to dial back his earlier threats of major strikes in Iran, making room for diplomatic channels to open.
  • While talks appear to be moving in the right direction, there is no indication that further military action is off the table. Iran remains focused on tying peace negotiations to three key conditions: an end to the US naval blockade, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, and the easing of sanctions. Meanwhile, the US and Israel have been coordinating contingency plans to “drop the hammer” should diplomatic efforts fail to resolve the dispute.
  • A resolution to the conflict remains far from guaranteed, but a breakthrough could provide vital support for equity markets heading into 2027. Restoring oil flows would help ease supply chain strains and lift global growth. Furthermore, falling energy prices should reduce inflationary pressures, lessening the need for monetary tightening. Conversely, any renewed escalation of the conflict would likely trigger the opposite outcome.

China Guardrails: Chinese regulators are working to establish safety guardrails to govern the development and application of AI. This shift toward tighter oversight reflects Beijing’s recognition of the cybersecurity threats posed by rogue AI. The initiative comes as AI models demonstrate an increasing ability to discover vulnerabilities and execute cyberattacks with minimal human oversight. Over time, there is a growing possibility that the US and China could establish a joint framework or agreement to regulate high-risk AI applications.

AI Debt Boom: There is growing speculation that AI financing demands could reach levels the market cannot absorb. According to PIMCO CEO Emmanuel Roman, capital requirements could hit $2 trillion annually over the next five years, potentially oversupplying the market. That risk would be especially acute in an economic downturn, which he warns could cause “something to break.” His remarks reflect mounting market anxiety over the financial system’s rising reliance on tech-industry debt and the risks it poses if left unchecked.

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Daily Comment (November 2, 2026)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with a few words on the apparent stabilization of global stock markets this morning after Friday’s selloff. We specifically address whether the selloff might have represented the end of the artificial intelligence frenzy. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets today, including more signs that the war in Iran is set to continue and a planned lobbying and public relations push by AI firm OpenAI to begin after tomorrow’s midterm elections.

Global Stock Markets: Shortly before market open, US stock futures prices suggest both the broad-based S&P 500 index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index are set to recover modestly from their rout on Friday. However, some of the recovery may simply reflect that oil prices are down so far this morning on optimism over back-channel peace talks in the Middle East (we are less optimistic, as shown in the following paragraph). Still, the selloff on Friday has raised questions about whether the long-expected end of the AI investment boom may be nigh.

  • In our view, it’s too soon to know for sure whether the AI boom is going into reverse. Frenzies or bubbles can continue longer than investors expect, even if they suffer short-term pullbacks.
  • All the same, we continue to see many possible factors that could trip up the AI frenzy at some point, including the competitive threat from Chinese AI models, popular pushback against data centers, concern about rogue AI agents, and the threat of onerous regulation.
  • Given that these factors will probably call into question the prospects and valuations of today’s AI assets over time, we think it’s a fine time for investors to ensure that their portfolios are well diversified and positioned to take advantage of the eventual rotation toward recently lagging market segments, such as stable, well-run, dividend-paying value stocks.

United States-Israel-Iran: As signs increasingly point to the US and Israel launching a major attack on Iran after the midterm elections tomorrow, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei publicly told the country’s top three military commanders that any such attack “must be met with an immediate and effective response, without geographical limitation” in order to achieve “maximum deterrence.” While the statement could be mostly posturing, it does suggest that Iran is prepared to keep fighting back hard and that global energy supplies remain at risk.

European Union-Canada: Wrapping up the EU-Canada summit in Montreal on Friday, Prime Minister Carney said Canada would accept the EU’s offer of an “associate membership,” aiming to achieve “the deepest possible partnership short of accession.” The two sides hope to flesh out the relationship — including how much Canada will contribute to the EU’s budget — by next June, despite lingering disagreements in areas such as the EU’s deforestation policies and whether Canada will be able to participate in EU public procurement.

  • The arrangement shows how the EU and Canada want to strengthen their non-US relationships to better insulate themselves from Washington’s more antagonistic, less cooperative policies.
  • However, it isn’t clear how much the new relationship will help the EU or Canada diversify their trade away from the US. Canada still sends approximately three-quarters of its exports to the US, even with Washington’s new tariffs and other trade barriers since early 2025, which illustrates how hard it will be for Canada to replace much of its US trade with exports and imports involving other economies.

China-Taiwan-United States: The Chinese coast guard on Saturday announced that it has stepped up patrols around Taiwan, including in the waters east of the island. According to the Chinese, the increased presence is aimed at “strengthening control over the relevant waters to effectively ensure orderly navigation and activities.” However, the expanded patrols fit a pattern suggesting Beijing is taking advantage of the new “Comprehensive Strategic Stability” (CSS) policy, which the US and China adopted to reduce tensions.

  • We examined the détente-like CSS policy in our latest Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report, published on October 26, 2026.
  • In the months since the CSS policy was put into place earlier this year, we have noted several instances in which the Chinese military has become more aggressive again in the South China Sea and elsewhere, suggesting it thinks it can now assert itself without fear of major US reprisals.
  • Of course, the risk is that the Chinese could miscalculate and spark a confrontation with a US ally that would require Washington to act. Any such event could rekindle US-China tensions and would likely unsettle the global financial markets.

United States-China: The Federal Communications Commission late last week banned all Chinese laboratories from testing electronic devices destined for the US market starting in 2028. The ban will apply to devices including smartphones and computers. Since Chinese labs currently test and certify about 80% of such devices for the US market, the move has generated strong pushback from Beijing — another example of lower-level US agencies taking steps that could antagonize China and undermine the détente-like CSS policy.

China: Citing the latest satellite imagery, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in an updated assessment last week that China’s latest aircraft carrier could be launched as soon as 2027. The new “Type 004” carrier would be the country’s fourth and is expected to be China’s first nuclear-powered carrier. Nuclear propulsion would give the ship much more power and range than current Chinese carriers.

  • If the Type 004 carrier is launched in 2027, it will still have to undergo a long period of outfitting, operational testing, and training before being commissioned around 2030.
  • China would still have far fewer carriers than the US, but it continues to shift its navy toward something more like the US’s “blue water” force. Over time, that will likely give China more geopolitical and military power to challenge US interests around the globe.

US Defense Policy: While the media this fall focused on the long, 321-day deployment of the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln before it finally returned home to San Diego on October 9, recent reports say the destroyer USS Spruance has now been deployed for a post-World War II record of more than 345 days, well above the US Navy’s standard of seven months. In our view, the long deployments suggest the US cut its defense budget too far after the Cold War and downsized its armed forces too much to defend its global security interests efficiently.

  • US military assets — from troops, sailors, and airmen to ships and bombers — are therefore often being run too hard or for too long, creating morale, maintenance, and safety problems.
  • A key question is whether Congress will keep increasing the defense budget. Even if it does, another question is how much it will pressure major defense firms to cut their prices or use more of their resources for investment in defense production.

US Artificial Intelligence Industry: In a scoop yesterday, Axios said AI modeler OpenAI plans to launch a major lobbying and public-relations effort right after tomorrow’s midterm elections, with the goal of favorably shaping any regulations from the new Congress and easing the public backlash against AI. Among other things, the program will push for mandatory brakes on cutting-edge models and try to rebrand “data centers” as “AI compute campuses.” If it affects the regulatory and popular environment for AI firms, the program could have an impact on AI-related assets.

Global Cybersecurity Industry: Just weeks after a flurry of suspected cyberattacks caused supermarket refrigerators and freezers to malfunction across France, a series of similar attacks has apparently been launched today in multiple other European countries, ruining food worth millions of euros. We have also seen reports that at least one freezer at a US military base has been hit. The attacks not only serve as a reminder that cyberattacks remain a threat, especially with the rise of AI, but also that cybersecurity firms are likely to see increased demand.

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Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Third-Year Charm: Why Gridlock Sets the Stage for Market Growth (November 2, 2026)

by Thomas Wash | PDF

Every political cycle arrives wrapped in apocalyptic campaign ads branding the upcoming election as “the most consequential of our lifetime.” Yet while political strategists focus on polarization, we are watching a far more concrete signal: stock market performance over the four-year presidential cycle.

From 1930 to 2023, the third year of a president’s term generated the strongest equity returns of the four-year cycle, driven largely by especially outsized gains in the stretch immediately after the midterm elections. That pattern is especially pronounced under second-term Republican administrations, when post-midterm rallies gain significant momentum, which could point to a strong 2027.

Measured from the start of the election year, when markets begin pricing in political shifts, through the third year of a term, stock returns under Republican presidents have slightly outpaced those under Democratic ones, with the S&P 500 rising 38.3% compared to 36.2%. What makes this outperformance particularly striking is that markets under Republican presidents typically underperform in their first two years, only to rally sharply in the third.

The market’s strong third-year performance is driven primarily by expectations of greater policy predictability. Historically, the party that lost the previous presidential race enjoys a midterm resurgence as rallying a frustrated base is far easier after a defeat. When this opposition party gains control of Congress, it creates legislative gridlock, tempering the administration’s most aggressive policies and forcing both parties toward consensus.

The latest Polymarket odds show more than an 80% probability that Democrats will take control of the House in the upcoming midterms. While prediction markets also favor a Democratic Senate takeover, polling data suggests those races may be much closer. Divided government — whether Democrats win one chamber or both — would likely bring gridlock after two years of unified Republican control of the White House and Congress.

Historically, shifts in congressional control have served as a vital check on executive and legislative overreach. For example, the 2022 midterm elections created a split Congress, reining in Democratic expansionary spending plans and easing investor worries over out-of-control federal deficits. Similarly, the 2018 midterms produced a divided government, forcing both parties to the negotiating table in 2020 and resulting in bipartisan economic relief packages for businesses and families during pandemic lockdowns.

Depending on whether Democrats take control of one or both houses of Congress, changes in fiscal and foreign policy could provide a welcome boost to markets. Democratic control of the House, in particular, would put the spotlight on the federal deficit. Because neither party would hold total control, both sides could be forced to compromise to pass a budget and avoid a government shutdown. While this budget fight may trigger political brinkmanship, it should ultimately yield a more concrete framework to curtail spending.

On the other hand, a Democratic sweep of Congress would pose a greater challenge to the executive branch, forcing the White House to coordinate more closely with lawmakers. While this legislative process is rarely pretty, both sides should ultimately be able to align on a clearer strategy on national security, trade, and AI governance. By balancing power between the executive and legislative branches, divided government tends to reduce market uncertainty by preventing sudden, unilateral policy shifts and fostering greater transparency.

Markets typically perform better in a president’s third year because policy becomes far more predictable — a dynamic that could prove particularly beneficial heading into 2027. While data from George W. Bush’s presidency was distorted by the start of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, second-term Republican administrations have historically delivered the strongest third-year market gains. That same pattern could emerge this time around, particularly since fluctuating trade, fiscal, and foreign policies have created price volatility and complicated efforts to deploy capital beyond the AI sector — pressures that more gridlock could help ease.

Ultimately, the prospect of a more balanced Congress forcing bipartisan cooperation should serve as a key market catalyst. Fewer abrupt policy shifts would make it easier for companies to plan for the future. This newfound clarity — paired with lower interest rates driven by easing geopolitical tensions and better fiscal policy — should allow businesses to capitalize on the AI buildout and expand investment across the broader market.

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Daily Comment (October 30, 2026)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment begins with key takeaways from the latest ECB rate decision and leadership change. We then turn to geopolitics, examining the outcome of the recent Israeli elections. Next, we briefly cover the Binance security breach and Intel’s disappointing earnings report. As always, we conclude with a summary of key domestic and international economic data.

ECB Rate Decision: The European Central Bank faces a leadership shakeup following its latest policy meeting. After the ECB decided to leave its benchmark interest rates unchanged, President Christine Lagarde announced plans to step down before her term expires. Her impending departure could raise fresh questions about the direction of monetary policy and the ECB’s independence amid the prospect of a populist surge in next year’s elections.

  • The ECB’s Governing Council left its deposit rate unchanged at 2.5% despite rising inflation. Policymakers said higher energy prices posed upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth. However, underlying inflation remained broadly stable, and wages had not yet shown a material response to the energy shock, supporting a measured approach amid uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and Russia’s war against Ukraine.
  • Following the rate decision, ECB President Christine Lagarde announced her intention to step down in February 2027, nine months before her term was due to expire, amid growing concerns that a populist surge may install a controversial figure at the helm of the central bank. Ensuring a smooth and timely succession has therefore become critical to maintaining market confidence. Explaining her departure, Lagarde said she wanted greater freedom to express her political views.
  • Her departure from the ECB will likely set off a race to find a suitable replacement. The European Council will be responsible for the selection, in consultation with the European Parliament. The leading candidates to take over are Spain’s Pablo Hernández de Cos and the Netherlands’ Klaas Knot, both of whom previously led their respective national central banks. The transition will be pivotal in determining whether the ECB deploys its emergency liquidity tool to prevent a sovereign crisis in France.
  • While rate decisions will remain important for European bond markets, we suspect political uncertainty could play a bigger role. A credible ECB president could ease fears of a populist central bank abandoning its inflation mandate. However, the bigger risk lies in next year’s elections in Germany and France, which may bring to power parties the markets do not trust. Even so, the new central bank head could provide some support for the euro.

Israeli Elections: After days of vote counting, Israel’s election produced no clear winner. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc emerged as the largest, winning 53 seats but falling short of the 61 needed to form a government. In the coming days and weeks, political leaders will seek to build a governing coalition. The outcome could shape Israel’s relationship with the United States and its conflict with Iran.

  • Although Netanyahu’s bloc was the top vote-getter, it did lose some influence. Following the 2022 election, the bloc had 64 seats, allowing it to hold a majority to form a government. This time around, however, it has given up 11 of those seats, while its main opposition has increased its total in the Knesset to 48. The biggest surprise appears to come from the Israeli Arab parties, which together garnered 19 seats, giving them influence over the formation of the next government.
  • Following the result, which is still subject to minor change, the parties will have a chance to see whether they can form a government. In the coming days, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will decide which leader has the best chance of forming a government, a decision that should follow a round of consultations. So far, reports suggest that the opposition will get the first shot at forming a government. Despite that slight edge, Polymarket odds suggest that Netanyahu may have the advantage.
  • The election outcome will shape Israel’s approach to Iran and its coordination with the United States, though a fundamental strategic shift appears unlikely. Israel’s opposition has criticized Netanyahu’s push for regime change as unrealistic, favoring a narrower objective focused on dismantling Iran’s nuclear program. It has also called for reducing Israel’s dependence on decisions made in Washington and for rebuilding bipartisan support in the US.
  • Government formation could take several weeks, as neither bloc has a clear path to a majority. We do not expect Israel’s political process to affect Washington’s decision on whether to mount an offensive against Iran. However, it may encourage more restraint on escalatory measures while the US waits for a government with which it can coordinate. While the outcome remains uncertain, it could affect oil markets.

Binance Hack: Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, announced that it had been hacked, with an estimated $6.3 billion in digital assets affected, in what would be the largest crypto heist on record. The company has suspended deposits and withdrawals. While Binance has released few details about the breach, blockchain intelligence firms have linked the attack to North Korea. The incident comes amid heightened concerns that AI-enabled cyberattacks could pose a threat to the financial system.

Intel Slump: Intel shares fell sharply after the chipmaker issued a disappointing outlook. Although Intel’s third-quarter results beat estimates, its fourth-quarter revenue and earnings forecasts fell short of expectations, as rising memory chip prices weighed on its PC business. Its AI-related data center business remained strong. The company’s performance has improved since it received support from the Trump administration last year. The market’s reaction to Intel highlights the importance of earnings in sustaining the AI rally.

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