by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF

Good morning! Financial markets are off to a sluggish start today. In sports news, University of Iowa star and top WNBA prospect Caitlin Clark declared for the draft. In today’s Comment, we delve into the impact of the NYCB turmoil, analyze the latest inflation data, and explore the possibility of tightening monetary policy at the Bank of Japan (BOJ). We conclude, as always, with a summary of recent domestic and international data.

More Regional Bank Pain: Regional banks are under increased scrutiny following turmoil at New York Community Bank, raising concerns about a potential financial crisis linked to commercial real estate.

• On Thursday, NYCB announced a $2.4 billion earnings hit, citing a “material weakness” in its loan review process. The bank’s CEO resigned and NYCB revealed it would miss its annual report deadline due to “ineffective oversight and risk management.” This news follows a prior announcement of a $552 million loan loss provision, 10 times greater than analysts’ expectations. The disclosure raises concerns about potential defaults on commercial real estate loans, sending NYCB’s stock down 19% in after-hours trading and potentially sparking broader sell-offs in similarly exposed banks on Friday.
• While the commercial real estate market’s vulnerabilities are widely recognized, its potential to trigger a major financial crisis remains the subject of heated debate. According to research from the American Enterprise Institute, banks have accumulated $1.5 trillion in unrealized mark-to-market interest losses on fixed income securities since September 2023. This could erode their ability to absorb potential loan losses in the event of a downturn in the commercial real estate market, adding to concerns about financial stability. However, it’s important to acknowledge the Federal Reserve’s ongoing efforts to collaborate with banks to address these concerns. Thus, there is also a strong possibility that the central bank has a contingency plan in case of an emergency.

• While the Federal Reserve’s primary mandate prioritizes price stability and maximum employment, its historical role in preventing bank panics remains relevant in the context of rising risks within the regional banking system. The expected termination of the Fed’s Banking Term Funding Program alongside these concerns could incentivize policymakers to reconsider their monetary policy stance. So far, the Fed has only hinted at potentially lowering rates, while maintaining its quantitative tightening. Based on these factors, we believe a rate reduction of at least 50 basis points could be warranted if the situation worsens, and potentially even more if a significant crisis erupts.

The January Spike: January’s hot inflation raises concerns that the Federal Reserve might delay rate cuts, but historical trends suggest a wait-and-see approach is likely.

• The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, saw a notable 0.4% uptick in January. Despite this substantial rise, the year-over-year change in the price index actually dipped from 2.94% to 2.85%. While this moderation might suggest a momentary relief, it has also sparked concerns about the Fed’s ability to effectively combat inflationary pressures. Policymakers seem to put little emphasis on the report. Atlanta and Chicago Fed Presidents Raphael Bostic and Austan Goolsbee suggested that the recent inflation report has not influenced their views on monetary policy.
• Policymakers’ dismissal of the report might be linked to the seasonal nature of inflation data. Historically, January tends to have the highest inflation rate compared to other months, often around 3.1% as the chart below demonstrates. This sharp increase is due to what some economists refer to as “residual seasonality,” in which prices increase due to changing out of contracts. This year’s inflation increase notably surpassed the historical average, hitting an annualized rate of 5.2%, though it marks an improvement over the preceding two Januarys, which recorded increases of 6.2% and 5.7%, respectively.

• Wages undoubtedly wield significant influence over inflation. The recent surge in strikes and a constricted labor market have empowered workers to negotiate higher earnings from employers, possibly fueling price pressures. However, there exists a trade-off between increased wages and employment levels. January witnessed a notable increase in WARN notices, which are expected to filter into employment figures over the next few months. While we anticipate most layoffs to be concentrated in finance and tech, it wouldn’t be surprising to see other industries affected as well.

BOJ Ready for Lift Off: Despite the risk of recession, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to signal its intent to exit its ultra-accommodative monetary policy.

• On Thursday, BOJ board member Hajime Takata declared that the central bank’s price target is “finally coming into sight.” His remarks add to the growing indication that Japanese policymakers are prepared to begin phasing out negative interest rates and yield curve control. While BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda maintains that it’s premature to declare victory over deflation, he emphasized that the outcome of ongoing wage negotiations between unions and companies will be a key determinant of future inflation trends. A settlement is set to be released on March 13, a few days before policymakers start their two-day meeting on March 18-19.
• Predicting labor negotiations amidst the current economic climate and tight labor market poses significant challenges. Japan endured two consecutive quarters of economic contraction in 2023, meeting the technical definition of a recession. The downturn stemmed largely from decreased consumer and investment spending, compounded by a sharp decline in industrial output that threatens to further dampen growth prospects. Despite this, the labor market remains surprisingly strong, with a 2.4% unemployment rate — a four-year low. Additionally, surveys reveal that two-thirds of small and mid-sized firms face labor shortages, highlighting the unusual disconnect between the economy and the job market.

• That said, there is optimism that labor will be able to receive a notable bump in pay this spring. Economists are predicting that wage hikes will rise by about 3.9% from the prior year. Although lower than the 5% minimum initially sought by labor leaders, the negotiated pay increase still exceeds the previous year’s three-decade high of 3.58%. A rate hike is likely to occur in March or April. This development could pressure the greenback, put upward pressure on global bond yields, and potentially drive increased investment in Japanese financial markets.

Other News: Brazil’s and China’s economies are showing signs of weakness, reflecting broader global economic stagnation. The slowdown in these nations underscores a worrisome trend affecting economies worldwide. Moreover, George Galloway’s victory in Rochdale highlights a potential decline in the Labour Party’s popularity, possibly linked to its stance on the Gaza conflict. Lastly, Tesla CEO Elon Musk is suing OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman. This legal dispute reflects the ongoing struggle in tech for control and dominance as various entities vie to shape the trajectory of artificial intelligence development.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF

Good morning! It’s been a positive start for equities as inflation data meets expectations. Meanwhile, Dallas Mavericks’ star Luka Dončić celebrated his 25th birthday with a triple-double. Today’s Comment dives into three key topics: the impact of bitcoin on small indexes, the possibility of a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, and the ongoing influence of the war in Ukraine on defense and aerospace companies. As always, the report concludes with a summary of international and domestic data releases.

Crypto Powers Small Cap Growth: Fueled by bitcoin’s rally, the Russell 2000 Index has surged as investors seek growth opportunities beyond the established large-cap tech stocks.

• The combined market cap of cryptocurrency hit a record of $2 trillion earlier this week, fueled by the recent surge in popularity for bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, bitcoin surpassed $60,000 for the first time since November 2021. This rise followed the launch of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust last month and was further bolstered by several subsequent ETF launches, which are now attracting record inflows. Retail investors have been the primary driver of this popularity, eager to capitalize on bitcoin’s momentum. However, concerns are rising as early signs suggest leverage may be re-entering the market, potentially increasing volatility.
• Bitcoin’s surge has boosted small-cap stocks, particularly those with bitcoin exposure like MicroStrategy, Riot Platforms, and Marathon Digital Holdings. This shift may signal that investors are diversifying away from the AI craze that dominated the early part of the year. The Russell 2000 outpaced the S&P 500 over the last week, rising 2.2% compared to 1.7%. However, mirroring its large-cap counterpart, gains remain concentrated in a handful of companies. MicroStrategy fueled much of this growth, rising an impressive 43% and outperforming even media favorite Nvidia, which rose 15% in the same period.

• While current fundamentals raise concerns about the sustainability of this trend, it may reflect a broader shift as the business cycle nears maturity. The Russell 2000’s P/E ratio has soared from just above 30 to over 74 in just a week, highlighting the increasingly optimistic (but potentially risky) behavior of investors seeking growth opportunities in small-cap stocks. Historically, late-cycle expansions witness a transition from large-cap value to large-cap growth, followed by a shift into small-cap growth. If this pattern holds, investors’ growing risk tolerance could signal the need for portfolio caution. We remain optimistic but maintain vigilance for potential sentiment shifts.

June a Possibility? Policymakers in Europe and the US have unequivocally rejected the possibility of an interest rate cut this spring but have signaled the potential for a cut this summer.

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signaled that interest rate cuts are likely this year, though the pace of easing will be less aggressive than in previous cycles. While a baseline scenario is three cuts, New York Fed President John Williams emphasized that economic data will guide the ultimate decision. Atlanta and Boston Fed Presidents Raphael Bostic and Susan Collins also support rate cuts, with a potential start as early as June. This hesitancy comes in response to strong employment data and a hot January CPI report, fueling concerns that the Fed’s fight against inflation is far from over.
• European policymakers remain committed to using economic data to guide interest rate decisions, but some are signaling a potential rate cut by summer. Members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, Gediminas Šimkus and Peter Kažimír, have warned that premature cuts could harm efforts to control inflation and have urged patience. However, Kažimír also expressed concern about Europe’s declining competitiveness and suggested that low-interest rates alone may not be enough to avert economic hardship. This concern is underscored by the euro area’s narrow avoidance of a technical recession in Q4, where output remained unchanged from the previous quarter. This stagnation may prompt policymakers to consider policy accommodation.

• Market expectations of a June rate cut seem largely accurate; however, the size remains uncertain. US policymakers have expressed concerns about reducing the size of the cut due to persistent economic growth and lingering inflationary pressures. Therefore, while the three cuts outlined in the latest projections are still likely, a smaller, Greenspan-style 50 basis point “maintenance” cut is also a possibility. Europe, on the other hand, may take a slightly more aggressive approach than the US to mitigate a worsening downturn. Consequently, a 100 bps rate reduction before year-end should not be ruled out.

Ukraine on the Brink? Russia’s perceived military success in Ukraine is raising concerns about the potential for escalation into a wider European conflict.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a stark warning, cautioning that direct Western intervention in the Ukraine conflict could escalate into a nuclear confrontation. His statement follows recent remarks by French President Emmanuel Macron, who acknowledged discussions within NATO regarding potential troop deployment to support Ukrainian efforts. Despite Western officials firmly rejecting the possibility of direct NATO involvement in the war, Putin’s comments suggest that he is taking the perceived threat seriously, especially as Ukraine struggles to maintain its war efforts amid dwindling resources while it waits for additional aid from the West.
• Putin’s menacing rhetoric regarding nuclear warfare has surged in prominence as nations scramble to stymie Russian aggression, particularly in light of its potential spillover beyond Ukraine. Recently, US officials issued cautionary alerts, suggesting Moscow’s contemplation of deploying anti-satellite nuclear weaponry within the year. President Biden has conceded that such a launch wouldn’t directly imperil human lives; however, security experts fear that the launch may risk an accidental explosion in space. Nevertheless, this development further highlights the intensifying military competition between Western powers and their adversaries, likely contributing to the record-breaking global military spending witnessed in 2023.

(Source: Washington Post)

• Though the threat of nuclear warfare is sadly not new, Putin’s repeated threats underscore the increasingly perilous state of global security. Tensions continue to show signs of escalation between the West and its rival. Although a conflict is not imminent, the risk is becoming increasingly elevated. While NATO member states have demonstrated their commitment to developing collective defense capabilities, the specific response of the United States to an attack on its allies remains unclear. That said, the increased military spending should boost revenue for defense and aerospace companies.

Other News:  The House is expected to pass a temporary stopgap bill to avert a government shutdown, highlighting the struggles of a divided Congress to reach consensus on essential legislation. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court’s acceptance of former President Donald Trump’s appeal regarding presidential immunity, (still likely to lead to an unfavorable ruling) suggests further a delay in a potential trial until after the general election. Turkish tech stocks have been on a tear this year, as investors consider tech stocks in emerging markets.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with new restrictions on information flows within and between the US and China, which will likely further decouple the two economies and exacerbate tensions.  We next review a range of other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including signs of potential new British curbs on Chinese electric vehicle imports and a range of US political and policy news.

China:  The government yesterday passed amendments to its State Secrets Law that will expand the types of information that must be protected.  Importantly, the amendments establish a new category of “work secrets” at government and party bodies that aren’t considered state secrets but could “cause certain adverse effects if leaked,” adding a potentially broad new category of restricted information.  Other provisions will restrict travel and work by people who leave sensitive positions and impose new rules on private businesses exposed to state secrets.

• Implementing rules on the work secrets category are to come at a later date. The overall package of amendments is due to take effect on May 1.
• The toughened law is only the latest example of how General Secretary Xi is actively prioritizing national security over economic growth or Chinese “soft power.”
• The toughened provisions will likely add to the concerns of Western firms trying to do business in China, since they will put those companies and their employees at greater risk of running afoul of the law. In turn, that may further discourage Western investment in China, adding to the country’s economic headwinds.

United States-China:  In another development relating to information flows, President Biden will sign an executive order today limiting the sensitive personal data on US citizens that data brokers can sell to China and other adversarial countries.  The restrictions will apply to data such as genomic, biometric, personal health, geolocation, financial, and certain types of personal identifiers.  In large sets, those types of data could be used by adversaries for intelligence gathering and to facilitate illicit influence campaigns or computer hacking.

United Kingdom-China:  Reporting by Politico indicates the British government is considering launching an investigation into whether the Chinese government has subsidized its burgeoning electric vehicle exports in violation of global trade rules.  The probe would follow a similar action by the European Union last fall, which has angered Beijing and worsened China-EU relations.

• Now that Chinese EV makers have begun to make ultra-cheap, high-quality cars (aided by government subsidies and protection), their EV exports are rapidly rising and posing what could be an existential threat to automakers in the developed countries.
• With the threat of massive job losses in their auto sectors, the EU and the UK are therefore taking steps that will likely lead to tough restrictions against the Chinese. Along with the existing US restrictions on Chinese vehicles, that could eventually lead to excess capacity in China’s EV industry, which would further weigh on Chinese economic growth in the coming years.

Russia:  The Financial Times carries an article today describing what it says is a series of secret Russian military documents on the country’s policies for when it would use tactical nuclear weapons in a conflict.  The report suggests Russia’s threshold for using tactical nukes is lower than previously thought, including numerical standards such as the loss of 20% of its nuclear ballistic missile submarines.

• We are still analyzing the article, so our view on its implication may still evolve. Nevertheless, it appears that the documents’ scenarios for going nuclear are fundamentally defensive.  For example, one scenario is if an adversary has invaded Russian territory and Russian conventional forces are unable to stop it.
• Of course, it’s always useful to ask oneself: “Why is this being reported now?” It could well be that this is a leak designed to influence the current US and European debate over the future threat from Russia if it can consolidate its invasion of Ukraine.
• Regarding the war in Ukraine, we believe the stalemate that seemed to be evolving late last year is now shifting toward an advantage for the Russians. With Western aid to Kyiv faltering and Ukraine struggling to field the requisite manpower, equipment, and ammunition to fight effectively, it looks increasingly like Ukraine’s defenses are becoming brittle and could soon fail, allowing the Russians to sweep westward.

United States-European Union-Russia:  European Commission President von der Leyen today formally proposed that the Group of 7 countries use profits from the $300 billion or so of Russian foreign reserves that they have frozen to support Ukraine in fighting off Russia’s invasion.  The formal proposal, which is also supported by the US, comes despite a lack of consensus among the allies over the legality of doing so and how it could be done.

• Recent proposals have called for designating the frozen Russian assets as collateral to support G7 loans to Ukraine for its war effort and rebuilding, based on the idea that Russia will eventually owe reparations to Ukraine. The expected Ukrainian default would then result in the Russian assets being confiscated.
• Despite the machinations being considered, the confiscation of Russian assets at the end of the day would not only be a major provocation against Moscow, but it would likely accelerate the loss of the US dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Countries in the China/Russia geopolitical bloc and any other nations worried about crossing the US would have an even greater incentive to reduce or end their use of the greenback, with unpredictable consequences for the world’s financial system.

US Politics:  In yesterday’s Michigan presidential primary elections, former President Trump handily beat former UN Ambassador Haley again in the Republican contest, and President Biden won the Democratic one, but the protest votes on each side were large.  In the Republican contest, Trump won 68.2% to Haley’s 26.5%.  In the Democratic ballot, Biden won 81.1% against an “uncommitted” vote of 13.3%.

• It increasingly looks like Trump and Biden will have a rematch in the November general election. Nevertheless, we still think that age and other potential issues could ultimately keep one or even both of the candidates off the ballot.  On top of that, a close race exacerbated by a potential third-party candidate could throw the election into Congress, with very unpredictable consequences.
• At the end of the day, this election season is looking unusually chaotic and hard to call. It would not be a surprise if the unpredictability at some point begins to weigh on the financial markets.

US Fiscal Policy:  After a meeting with President Biden at the White House yesterday, Republican and Democratic congressional leaders expressed confidence they would soon reach a new funding deal that would avert a partial shutdown of the federal government when the current stopgap law expires Friday night.  However, Senate Majority Leader Schumer, a Democrat, warned that the likely solution would be yet another short-term funding package designed to give the two parties time to agree on funding for the remainder of the fiscal year.

• Despite the optimism expressed by the lawmakers yesterday, neither a short-term nor a full-year deal can be assured, especially given the existence of a large body of Republican deficit hawks in the House who seem willing to torpedo any deal that doesn’t meet their aggressive goals for spending cuts.
• In any case, yet another stopgap measure and a further delay in passing funding for the rest of the fiscal year through September will impinge even more on the US military’s effort to rebuild and expand to meet the growing threat from the China/Russia geopolitical bloc.

US Antitrust Policy:  In another sign that the administration is trying to tighten antitrust policy, the Justice Department has reportedly opened an investigation into health insurance giant UnitedHealthcare.  The probe appears to be focused on the relationship between the company’s insurance operations and its Optum health-services operation.  It isn’t clear whether the probe will lead to an antitrust lawsuit.  As we mentioned in our Comment yesterday, the administration has had a mixed record in antitrust because of the prevailing Bork Standard in the courts.

US Economic Growth:  The National Association of Business Economists said its updated US economic forecasts now show gross domestic product growing 2.2% in 2024, up sharply from its December forecast of 1.3%.  The improved growth would reflect better-than-expected increases in personal consumption expenditures, corporate and residential investment, and government spending.  The forecasts also call for lower unemployment and price inflation, which should allow the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in Q2.

US Cryptocurrency Market:  Just weeks after financial firms won regulatory approval to launch exchange-traded funds holding bitcoin, reports say about 10 companies have now filed applications to offer ETFs holding ether, the second-biggest cryptocurrency.  In response to the news, ether prices have surged approximately 42% so far this month.  That has given a further boost to bitcoin prices, which are now up about 33% in the month to date.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with an assertion from French President Macron that European leaders have discussed sending Western ground troops to Ukraine to help rebuff Russia’s invasion of that country.  We next review a range of other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including a disappointing corporate governance reform in South Korea and an important new antitrust lawsuit in the US.

Russia-Ukraine War:  As Europe’s defense industry struggles to expand output enough to support the rebuilding of the Continent’s defenses and help Ukraine fend off Russia’s invasion, and as European leaders mull the prospect that the US might renege on its NATO mutual defense obligations, French President Macron said European leaders met yesterday to discuss sending Western troops to help the Ukrainians.  Macron said there was no consensus to send troops “in an official manner,” but he insisted all options must remain on the table.

• French support for the Ukrainians has so far been more about words than deeds, and Macron has often seemed to put European and French industrial interests ahead of Ukraine’s needs. The shift in his rhetoric after yesterday’s meeting was therefore notable.  Not only did Macron say that defeating Russia is essential to Western Europe’s security, but he acquiesced to Europe buying ammunition and equipment outside the region if necessary.
• Macron has long championed the idea that the countries of Western Europe should develop their own independent defense capability. Seeing Europe’s faltering defense industrial effort and slow military rebuilding, Macron may have sensed an opportunity for France to take the political lead on the Continent.  The proof will be whether France now takes concrete steps to boost the European defense effort and provide more aid to Ukraine.
• In any case, Macron’s statement about potentially sending Western troops to Ukraine has already sparked pushback from some corners of Europe, particularly Germany. Today, Germany’s Vice-Chancellor Habeck said there was “no chance” that Germany would send ground troops to Ukraine and noted things would be better if France would just send more weapons.

Sweden-North Atlantic Treaty Organization:  The Hungarian parliament yesterday gave final approval for Sweden to become the 32^nd member of NATO, providing the required unanimous consent of all current members and setting the stage for Sweden to formally join the alliance later this week.  The accession of Sweden into NATO is expected to strengthen the alliance’s northern flank and help transform the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake.  That could help contain any Russian territorial aggression in the area, bolstering both European and US security.

China:  It now appears that measures by Chinese authorities have successfully arrested the fall in the renminbi (CNY) this year.  The measures, such as delaying short-term interest rate cuts, have put a floor under the currency at around 7.2 per dollar.  The currency is still depreciating slowly, but not nearly as fast as in the first three weeks of the year.

Global Corporate Governance:  In a survey of business leaders across the Group of 20 major countries, three-quarters of respondents said the pressure to cut carbon emissions and invest in green energy is coming mostly from their own board of directors, rather than from regulators or customers.  Some 30% of the business leaders said the board pressure was “extreme,” while 47% said the pressure was “significant.”

• The survey results suggest the drive to transition to green energy is now deeply embedded in the viewpoint of those top investors, corporate leaders, academics, and former officials who make up so much of today’s corporate boards.
• All the same, with many consumers, farmers, and workers now starting to push back against the green-energy drive in many countries, it would appear that corporate directors pushing green policies could eventually face resistance in board elections, potentially creating disruption in some firms’ corporate governance.

South Korean Corporate Governance:  The government has released highlights of its plan to boost Korea’s perennially low stock valuations.  However, the “Corporate Value Up Program” was quickly panned as too weak, as it relies mostly on naming and shaming companies that don’t improve their governance.  One key problem is that the plan doesn’t include specific incentives for firms to reform their corporate structures to better protect small shareholders vis-á-vis large, controlling shareholders (who are often the company’s founding family).

• The Korean program was inspired by Japan’s corporate governance reforms under former Prime Minister Abe about a decade ago. Those reforms are considered one reason why Japanese stock values finally began to rally in recent years and finally reached new record highs in recent days, after decades of lethargic performance.
• The government said it plans to release a more detailed version of the plan in June. Nevertheless, disappointment over the initial release helped drive Korean stocks lower yesterday.

UK Antitrust Policy:  The Competition and Markets Authority has opened an investigation into possible illegal information sharing among eight British homebuilders.  With Britain facing a major housing shortage, homebuilders have come under fire for limiting their development efforts to projects where demand is high enough that they can build on spec and be assured of making high profits.  The new probe probably raises the regulatory risk for British homebuilders going forward.

US Antitrust Policy:  Yesterday, the Federal Trade Commission sued to block the proposed merger between grocery chains Kroger and Albertsons.  According to the FTC, the merger would lead to higher prices for US consumers and lower wages for the firms’ workers.  The FTC suit reflects the Biden administration’s effort to crack down on industry consolidation, but that effort has often run up against the prevailing “Bork Standard,” which requires a higher level of consumer harm before a merger can be blocked.

US Industrial Policy:  The Wall Street Journal carries an article today showing that the boom in US green-energy manufacturing and mining, partially touched off by the Biden administration’s industrial policy, is channeling the most investment into Republican-leaning regions of the country.  While Biden may be hoping that he’ll get credit from the new investment and gain politically in those areas, it seems just as likely that he won’t get much credit and will continue to struggle in public opinion polls because of public anger over consumer price inflation.

 (Source: Wall Street Journal)

US Politics:  Michigan holds its presidential primary elections today, in which former President Trump is expected to again trounce former UN Ambassador Haley on the Republican side.  Nevertheless, Haley remains defiant and has insisted she will stay in the race at least through Super Tuesday next month.

• Both Trump and President Biden face age, popularity, and other issues that could conceivably undercut them or force one or both off the ballot before November.
• Therefore, Haley may be positioning herself to inherit the Republican mantle or even pursue a third-party or independent candidacy.

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