by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF

The Hamas attack on Israel did lift oil prices earlier this week, but markets are mainly taking a “wait and see” approach to prices so far.

(Source: Barchart.com)

Commercial crude oil inventories jumped 10.2 mb compared to forecasts of a 0.4 mb draw.  The SPR was unchanged, which puts the net draw at 10.2 mb.

In the details, U.S. crude oil production has jumped 0.3 mbpd to 13.2 mbpd; we have suspected for some time that the DOE was undercounting production, which has led to large “adjustment” plug numbers.  Exports fell 1.9 mbpd, while imports rose 0.1 mbpd.  Refining activity fell 1.6% to 85.7% of capacity.  We are clearly heading into the autumn refinery maintenance period which should reduce oil demand.

(Sources: DOE, CIM)

The above chart shows the seasonal pattern for crude oil inventories.  Last week’s jump in inventories is consistent with seasonal patterns and represents some “catch up” to the recent stockpile declines.  With refinery operations slowing, further increases in inventories would be expected.  At the same time, as the chart below shows, we should be near the trough of the seasonal maintenance period and demand should start rising soon.

(Sources: DOE, CIM)

Fair value, using commercial inventories and the EUR for independent variables, yields a price of $72.52.  However, given the level of geopolitical risk in the market, we are not surprised that oil prices are well above this model’s fair value.

Since the SPR is being used, to some extent, as a buffer stock, we have constructed oil inventory charts incorporating both the SPR and commercial inventories.

Total stockpiles peaked in 2017 and are now at levels last seen in late 1984.  Using total stocks since 2015, fair value is $93.83.

What’s Happening to Gasoline Demand?

As summer came to a close, gasoline demand turned down sharply.

It isn’t unusual for gasoline consumption to decline when summer ends.  Vacation season ends as school starts and, often, a seasonal decline in homebuilding activity can also hurt demand.

However, as the chart above suggests, the recent decline is rather sharp, and, more importantly, actually began during the summer.

We have noted that driving activity hasn’t been the same since the Great Financial Crisis.

From the early 1980s into the crisis, gasoline demand steadily rose.  Recessions didn’t generally  cause significant declines, but driving activity flattened following the crisis.  We did see some improvement from 2015 until the pandemic, but since the pandemic, miles driven have been under pressure.  There are likely a myriad of reasons for this change.  We were approaching the point where suburban sprawl had reached a limit; commutes were so long that households could no longer live further from work.  The pandemic introduced more widespread work-from-home employment, which played a role.  Also, social media now allows friends to “meet” without physically going anywhere.  So, it makes sense that gasoline demand would be affected.

This model looks at gasoline consumption from 1973 to the present.  We seasonally adjust the data and run a Hodrick-Prescott trend variable through the data.  Note the plunge in the divergence[1] in the most recent data.  The decline in gasoline demand suggests that something is affecting consumption.  Given that gasoline consumption is usually price insensitive, this may be a warning that the economy is under pressure.  Usually, when gasoline demand is this weak, a recession is underway.

Market News:

• Despite a hot summer, EU natural gas inventories are ample. Some of this is because last winter was mild, which meant the spring and summer refill seasons began with a surplus.  Now that inventories are mostly full, natural gas prices have been soft, and volatility has been low.  In the past week, however, this calm has been disrupted.  The Hamas incursion led to a production halt in the Eastern Mediterranean which triggered a jump in prices.  In addition, it’s worth noting that there is never enough storage if the winter is cold, and so, prices could move rapidly higher if the weather dictates.  Also, we note that Australian LNG workers are going on strike.
  • The IEA is projecting slower global natural gas demand in the coming years.
  • Germany is (wisely) considering increasing its natural gas inventory capacity.
• Drought is reducing water levels in the Panama Canal; the restrictions could reduce flows of petroleum, LNG, and related products.
• Although company information is not the primary focus of this report, the recent announcement of a merger between Pioneer (PXD, $239.71) and Exxon (XOM, $105.69) will give the latter a dominant position in the U.S. shale patch. Exxon usually engages in large projects that take years to develop.  By adding shale assets, it will be able to ramp up production quickly.  There are two takeaways: first, Exxon must feel comfortable that the U.S. policy environment will continue to support fossil fuel production; and second, the company may have been worried about the long-term prospects for oil and therefore wanted to increase its portfolio of rapid production assets.
  • In addition, Exxon’s expansion could bring more reliable oil flows from the shale patch. In recent years, smaller firms have heeded the call from shareholders to increase dividends and restrict investment.  Exxon will be less susceptible to such pressures.
• U.S. oil exports reached a new record in the first half of the year.
• Artificial intelligence energy demands are enormous and will likely drive the need for more generating capacity.

Geopolitical News:

• The major geopolitical news of the week was the surprise attack by Hamas on Israel. On Sunday, Hamas, operating in the Gaza strip, launched a widescale attack on southern Israel, assaulting several towns, killing several hundred Israelis, and taking over 100 hostages.  In our Daily Comment, we have covered this event.  For energy markets, there are four key factors:

1. The Saudi/Israeli normalization talks are likely dead for now. Although there was progress being made before the invasion, it would be difficult for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) not to show solidarity with Hamas.  At the same time, the degree of restraint Israel would have to exercise to keep negotiations alive would be near impossible for the Netanyahu government.  A deal that might encourage the Saudis to utilize the 2.0 mbpd of excess capacity to bring down oil prices is unlikely at this point.
   • Broader normalization among the Arab states is also uncertain at this time. Generally speaking, these states are issuing “both sides” types of statements and calling for a curtailment of violence.
2. If Iran is held culpable for supporting Hamas’s attack, some level of Israeli (and perhaps U.S.) retaliation is probably unavoidable. Although the retaliation could be covert by focusing on cyber-attacks and special operations, such low-key strikes might not be politically sufficient for Israel.  After all, this event is being described as Israel’s “9/11.”  A direct attack on Iran would almost certainly roil the oil market and send prices higher.  If Iranian crude shipments were forcibly curtailed, it would not be a surprise if Iran closed off the Strait of Hormuz.  We expect the U.S. to tread carefully in blaming Iran, but the evidence thus far seems to support its involvement.  We do expect the U.S. and Europe to try to prevent a widening of the conflict as a broader war would bring the risk of higher oil prices.  So far, Iran is claiming no role in the attack, which contradicts accounts recently detailed by the WSJ.  Our expected playbook on Iran is for increased sanctions, which will likely include freezing the recently unfrozen $6.0 billion of Iranian assets.  At the same time, expect to see reports that confirm Iran was not directly involved in the actual attack.
   • To a great extent, the White House will have to choose between sanctioning Iran or having higher oil prices. We note that Iranian production has been rising this year.

• • There will be pressure to reduce Iran’s exports in response to this event.  Of course, if it so chose, Saudi Arabia could plug this gap as it currently has 2.0 mbpd of excess capacity that it could tap.  Iran and Saudi Arabia have held talks recently, but we doubt that Riyadh would come to Tehran’s aid on this issue.
  • Potentially the biggest loser to renewed sanctions on Iran would be China. China has benefited by purchasing sanctioned oil at a discount.  At the same time, it has become dangerously dependent on oil flows from the Middle East that could possibly be interdicted by the U.S. Navy.
  • A potential beneficiary could be Venezuela. The White House may ease sanctions on the Maduro regime to contain oil prices.
  • We are also watching for other groups in the region to join the conflict. The most likely one would be Hezbollah.  Other armed insurrectionist groups in the Middle East have warned they may create a multifront war for the West.
  • There are also concerns that Russia may have aided Hamas.
  • The backlash against Israeli retaliation has begun.

3. This attack may stunt natural gas development in the eastern Mediterranean. The projects could be vulnerable to attack, and even if the current facilities can be secured, geopolitical risks could affect future investment.
4. As we have noted in recent reports, there is some evidence that Iran may have penetrated upper levels of the Biden administration. The Hamas attack could raise concerns about the administration’s recent actions to improve relations with Iran.

• China also issued statements, which can be characterized by “both sides, curtail violence, the U.S. caused these problems.” Israeli diplomats were unimpressed.
• A gas pipeline reaching from Finland to Estonia began leaking, raising fears of sabotage. NATO has warned it will respond if it turns out the pipeline was attacked.
• Russia, in a bid to keep domestic fuel prices low, has implemented an export ban. More importantly, Putin has also ordered price regulations and capital controls.  When the U.S. used such regulations in the 1970s, it led to widespread shortages.  The Kremlin may be banking on its power to force oil companies to lose money to prevent a similar experience.
• Scalise (R-LA) has been nominated by the Republicans to be speaker of the House but still needs to secure the position from the full House. He is a major supporter of the fossil fuel industry and would likely push back against the energy transition.
• The G-7 has relaxed its enforcement of the Russian oil price cap. Treasury Secretary Yellen announced the U.S. is preparing to crack down on sanction evasion.  We doubt the G-7 will have much success.  Russia has a fleet of tankers that allow it to evade sanctions and the buyers are getting by without Western insurance.
  • India recently paid Russia well in excess of the price cap.

Alternative Energy/Policy News:

• Nio (NIO, $8.53), a Chinese car company, is losing $35k per car. China’s ability to subsidize these losses makes the country a formidable competitor in this area.  As we have noted in recent reports, China appears to be targeting the EU for its EVs, and Brussels is increasingly concerned about Chinese dumping and the potential damage to Europe’s auto industry.
  • Overcapacity in the Chinese EV industry is likely to bring a shakeout in the coming months.
  • Chinese battery firms are creating trade paths to evade U.S. trade restrictions.
• The stigma against nuclear energy is slowly weakening in Europe as the need for electricity and the appeal of no carbon emissions make the source increasingly attractive.
• Kenya is emerging as a major leader in geothermal power. It plans on generating half of its electricity from this clean source.
• Perhaps the most important metal in the energy transition is copper. Battery metals will change as technology changes, but, to date, no one has developed an electrical conductor as price efficient as copper.  Unfortunately, existing mines are faced with a reduction in productivity as ore concentration declines.  Thus, new mines will be necessary in order to boost output; however, it has been difficult to fund and approve new projects.
• Heat pumps are an efficient, yet controversial, method for heating and cooling. The problem is that they don’t work well in extreme temperatures.  In the case of Germany, the government has been forcing homeowners to use heat pumps when they would prefer not to.  As the IEA points out, though, improving efficiency is an important part of reducing energy consumption.
• Technology has become an issue in recent union contract negotiations. For example, part of the demands of the Hollywood writers included protection against AI-derived scripts.  The UAW is worried that EVs will reduce the number of autoworkers required to build cars and, at the same time, the union fears battery factories are increasingly being sited in right-to-work states.  The new technology is a threat to UAW jobs and the current strike is trying to address these issues.

[1] We have truncated the residual data to reduce the chart distortions from the pandemic.

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by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF

After making a run at $95 per barrel last week, prices are correcting; we suspect rising interest rates are increasing fears of an economic slowdown.

(Source: Barchart.com)

Commercial crude oil inventories fell 2.2 mb compared to forecasts of a 1.5 mb build.  The SPR rose 0.3 mb, which puts the net draw at 1.9 mb (difference due to rounding).

In the details, U.S. crude oil production was steady at 12.9 mbpd.  Exports rose 0.9 mbpd, while imports fell 1.0 mbpd.  Refining activity fell 2.2% to 87.3% of capacity.  We are clearly heading into the autumn refinery maintenance period which should reduce demand.

(Sources: DOE, CIM)

The above chart shows the seasonal pattern for crude oil inventories.  Last week’s decline is contra seasonal and thus is bullish for crude oil prices.  The continued drop in stockpiles while refinery maintenance is underway is profoundly bullish for oil prices.

(Sources: DOE, CIM)

Fair value, using commercial inventories and the EUR for independent variables, yields a price of $76.55.  The continued draw in commercial inventories is supportive for oil prices, but there is a geopolitical risk factor that is boosting prices as well.

Since the SPR is being used, to some extent, as a buffer stock, we have constructed oil inventory charts incorporating both the SPR and commercial inventories.

Total stockpiles peaked in 2017 and are now at levels last seen in late 1984.  Using total stocks since 2015, fair value is $95.21.

Market News:

• Although there has been a clear trend by U.S. oil companies to focus more on profitability and less on production, surveys of oil executives suggest that they see oil demand continuing. So far, this hasn’t necessarily led to a major production boom.  However, if these attitudes about demand begin to affect behavior, we could see renewed investment.
  • At the same time, government hostility toward oil and gas continues. The Biden administration has reduced the number of offshore oil drilling leases to a record low.  It should be noted that this stance could shift with a GOP White House, but the industry must consider the fact that power could shift back in later years.  Policy uncertainty tends to dampen investment.
  • Hedge funds are providing funding for environmental lawsuits. Although the funding, so far, has applied to mining firms, these lawsuits tend to raise the costs of production and reduce supply.
• U.S. product exports have hit a new record, and the same goes for U.S. exports of natural gas. As the global energy market restructures, the U.S. is benefiting.
• China is increasing its imports from the Arctic route.

Geopolitical News:

• With the spike in oil prices, the G-7 oil price cap has collapsed. This development is boosting Russian oil revenues.  It should be noted that the vessels carrying Russian oil are not using Western insurance.  So far, that hasn’t stopped their shipments.  At the same time, Russian production of natural gas is falling as the loss of European markets and Western technology is undermining production.
  • Turkey continues to play its role as a borderland nation. The number of Russian and Iranian firms locating to Turkey has surged since sanctions have been implemented in the wake of the war in Ukraine.
• Despite high oil prices, rising fiscal spending is expected to generate a deficit in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 2024. It is unclear whether the Saudis will press for even higher prices to increase revenue.  Obviously, this only works if the demand for Saudi oil is price inelastic.
• Saudi and Chinese energy ties are deepening. China is the world’s largest oil importer, and the Saudis are investing in China’s downstream industry.  By doing so, it should increase China’s dependence on Saudi oil.
• There are reports that Iran has opened direct nuclear program talks with the U.S. Although getting to a deal would be difficult, the fact that Iran has moved on this issue could be significant.
  • We also note that Tehran has been engaging in talks with various Gulf States.
  • It’s looking increasingly likely that Robert Malley was involved in supporting Iranian diplomatic and intelligence efforts in Washington. As we note above, the Biden administration has been trying to resurrect the Iran nuclear deal; the revelation of a spy in the administration won’t help in this process.

Alternative Energy/Policy News:

• As we discussed last week, Ford (F, $12.54) has put a battery plant on hiatus due to uncertainty surrounding the facility’s profitability. Another issue looms regarding legislation on EV tax credits, which rests on how a “domestic” EV is defined.  Foreign EVs or those with foreign components sourced from a “foreign entity of concern” will no longer be eligible for the credit.  Ford is using Chinese-licensed battery technology, but the rest of the car is considered domestic.  It is unclear whether Ford EVs will qualify if they use these batteries.  Thus, the government’s decision on subsidies is a major issue for future domestically built EVs.
  • Although the U.S. and increasingly the EU are using trade restrictions to support their domestic EV industries, there will be a cost to this protection in the form of higher prices. It’s a classic example of economic tradeoffs—if you want a rapid EV transformation, importing cars from China is probably the quickest path, but if  you want to refashion the domestic auto industry, then consumers will pay more.
  • EV makers outside of China are struggling to turn a profit. Tesla (TSLA, $245.26) has reported lower sales due, in part, to factory upgrades for next year’s models.  The company has been trying to expand market share at the cost of margins, which has depressed revenue.  Other firms are struggling as well.
  • There is a near-constant debate as to whether EVs are better for the environment. Although they clearly reduce emissions, the mining of metals and the source of electricity can clearly affect the environmental situation.  A new study suggests that even with assumptions that the electricity source is “dirty,” EVs are still a plus for the environment.
  • Battery technology is evolving as research efforts increase. This research could change the types of metals needed for EV batteries over time.
• Emerging markets, in general, and China, in particular, are expanding nuclear power at a rapid pace. This development is bullish for uranium.  In developed markets, permitting and other issues are undermining development.
• Nucor (NUE, $158.25) is looking to manufacture steel using fusion energy.
• As costs rise, growth in wind power is starting to stall.
• Global shipping firms are investigating the use of sails on vessels to reduce fuel consumption.

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by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF

Oil prices are breaking out, raising the potential for a move toward $95 per barrel.

(Source: Barchart.com)

Commercial crude oil inventories fell 2.2 mb compared to forecasts of a 2.0 mb build.  The SPR fell 0.3 mb, which puts the net draw at 2.4 mb (difference due to rounding).

In the details, U.S. crude oil production was steady at 12.9 mbpd.  Exports fell 1.1 mbpd, while imports rose 0.7 mbpd.  Refining activity fell 1.6% to 89.5% of capacity. We are clearly heading into the autumn refinery maintenance period which should reduce demand.

(Sources:  DOE, CIM)

(Sources: DOE, CIM)

The above chart shows the seasonal pattern for crude oil inventories.  Last week’s decline is contra seasonal and thus is bullish for crude oil prices.

Fair value, using commercial inventories and the EUR for independent variables, yields a price of $74.92.  Commercial inventory levels are a bearish factor for oil prices, but with the unprecedented withdrawal of SPR oil, we think that the total-stocks number is more relevant.

Since the SPR is being used, to some extent, as a buffer stock, we have constructed oil inventory charts incorporating both the SPR and commercial inventories.

Total stockpiles peaked in 2017 and are now at levels last seen in late 1984.  Using total stocks since 2015, fair value is $95.49.

Market News:

• The IEA issued an updated report detailing what would be necessary to reach carbon reduction goals by 2030. Generally speaking, it is still possible to reach these goals, but the path is narrowing.  The IEA claims that fossil fuel demand will need to decline 25% by 2030; we suspect that isn’t likely.
  • Oil execs claim that without more support for shale drilling, oil is headed to $150 per barrel. We don’t think that is probable in the near future because OPEC+ has significant excess capacity.  However, over time, it could occur.  The idea that demand must fall by 25% will likely temper investment activity in oil and gas.
  • One of the key factors in shale production is water. There are concerns that Texas is consuming so much water that it may eventually curtail output.
  • U.S. oil production is steadily rising and is offsetting some of the production cuts from OPEC+.
• As oil prices continue to rise, the G-7 cap on Russian oil prices has become irrelevant. The restrictions on Western insurance remain in place but are increasingly being ignored as Russia is managing to acquire insurance from other sources.
  • Russia has banned product sales in a bid to ensure ample domestic supplies. Russian domestic prices have declined in the wake of the restrictions.
• Although there is still talk about phasing out fossil fuels in the West, China’s climate envoy has made it clear that Beijing isn’t ready to give up on these fuels anytime soon. This comment makes the idea of “peak oil demand” appear a bit premature.
• It was a warm summer, and September has also been warm. The combination of undersea volcanic activity, the emerging El Niño, and the peak of the solar cycle have all combined to lift summer temperatures.  We will now be watching to see if we have a mild winter as a continuation of these trends.
• Russia banned the export of distillate products earlier this month, but as prices have increased, it has lifted its ban on bunker fuel, the high-sulfur fuel usually burned by ships.
• Despite high prices, U.S. E&P company capex remains constrained.

Geopolitical News:

• In the wake of the Iran/U.S. prisoner swap, there is hope that the two parties will use this event to improve relations. Although we have our doubts that this will work, there are parties trying to foster negotiations.
  • Qatar is offering to facilitate talks between the U.S. and Iran about moving forward on a new nuclear deal.
  • On the other hand, Iran’s foreign minister, who was in New York for the UN General Assembly meetings, was unable to visit Washington for talks.
  • Robert Malley, who we discussed in an earlier Weekly Energy Update, appears to be part of a deep influence campaign by Iran.
  • President Raisi of Iran is calling for the U.S. to leave the Middle East.
  • Iran claims to have thwarted a massive bombing campaign. Tehran blames Israel.
• In a bid to conserve foreign currency reserves, Iraq will restrict all internal transactions to the IQD. Usually when a central bank puts such restrictions in place, the action reduces trade.
• Over the past few weeks, we have discussed Saudi/Israeli normalization. The barriers to a deal remain high, but talks appear to be continuing.  As a potential deal looms, Iran is trying to figure out how to respond.  A KSA/U.S./Israel deal would create a formidable obstacle to Iran’s goal of dominating the region.
  • As negotiations continue, we note that the new Saudi envoy to the Palestinians has visited the West Bank. Also, Israel’s tourism minister has visited the KSA, which makes the minister the highest ranking official to actually visit Saudi Arabia.
• One of the key elements of the geopolitics of oil is that Europe lacks enough oil and natural gas to be energy independent. Thus, it needs imports to meet its energy needs.  The U.S. wants Europe to be dependent on America.  Europe, obviously, wants diversity of sources.  Washington has historically tolerated Europe getting supplies from the Middle East and Africa but has consistently opposed Europe getting oil and gas from Russia.  As the war in Ukraine has disrupted Russian supplies, the EU is finding itself increasingly dependent on the U.S., especially for natural gas.
  • Mexico is planning to join the ranks of LNG export nations.
• Chevron (CVX, $170.23) announced it will resume drilling activity in Venezuela. The country has been under sanction for some time, but in the wake of the war in Ukraine, Washington has gradually lifted sanctions in a bid to keep oil prices under control.
  • At the same time, Citgo, the large U.S. refiner that is a subsidiary of the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA, will be auctioned off to pay Venezuelan debt. So far, the Maduro government hasn’t taken measures to stop the sale.

Alternative Energy/Policy News:

• European officials warn that the region must diversify its solar panel supply chains away from its dependence on China. The U.S. industrial policy is attempting to support a domestic solar panel industry.
  • The EU is getting increasingly aggressive in protecting its auto industry, threatening not only China but also U.S. EV producers with trade restrictions.
• China is also dominant in rare earths mining and processing. Vietnam is vying to compete with China in this market.
  • Vietnam is also making headway in the EV market and hopes to become a source for the EU now that Europe is considering restricting Chinese EVs.
• Ford (F, $12.55) halted work on a battery plant in Michigan. The plant, which uses Chinese licensed technology, has been controversial.  The UAW, which is currently striking, has claimed that this halt was designed to influence the union’s wage efforts.  However, the company claims it isn’t sure it can “competitively” operate the plant.
  • Chinese firms are investing in Moroccan phosphate, which they use in batteries.
  • Looking for a good primer on EV batteries? This report from The Economist lays out the different battery technologies and where new developments are going.
• Geothermal energy remains an attractive alternative energy. So far, it has mostly been restricted to regions with volcanic activity but there are hopes that it can be deployed more broadly.  In addition, there is research under way to make current geothermal power more efficient.
• There is also research in progress that could transform CO² into synthetic natural gas.
• The U.S. is aiming to build a nuclear fusion facility within the next decade.
• Microsoft (MSFT, $310.65) is funding small modular reactors to provide energy to the company. This energy is designed to, in part, provide electricity for its AI efforts.

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