Asset Allocation Reports
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Equities as an Inflation Hedge? (March 17, 2025)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF A time-honored belief holds that inflation is bad for stocks, but recent developments may be challenging this view. In this report, we step through the traditional narrative, review certain recent developments, and consider what might have changed in the relationship between inflation and stocks. Ultimately, we might be entering… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Tackling Long-Term Interest Rates (March 3, 2025)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on February 12, Federal Reserve Chair Powell was questioned about why mortgage rates had not declined. In response, Powell emphasized that the Fed primarily influences short-term interest rates, not the longer-term rates such as those tied to mortgages. Despite… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Our Take on the Initial Trump Tariffs (February 18, 2025)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF While investors broadly understood that the new Trump administration would impose import tariffs as a key part of its economic policy, concrete details weren’t available until the initial tariff announcements on February 1. Even though some of those tariffs were quickly “paused,” the announcements gave us our first… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – American Exceptionalism and the Markets (February 3, 2025)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We suspect many investors today think the “American Exceptionalism” they studied in high school or college no longer applies to the United States, given the challenges it faces from the rise of China, the country’s own enormous debt load, or its sharp political divisions. However, as we survey… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – #133 “American Exceptionalism and the Markets” (Posted 1/21/25)
Listen »Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We expect resilient economic growth in the short term, with slowing occurring toward the later end of the forecast period. Our three-year forecast does not anticipate a recession. Inflation rates will be volatile and are likely to remain above the Fed’s target rate. We anticipate the Fed will… Read More »