Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation thoughts on a bi-weekly basis, updating the piece every other Monday.
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 16, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In the NBC mockumentary show The Office, the character Jim Halpert gets tricked into choosing his wife, Pam, as “Employee of the Month.” Perplexed and suspicious, coworkers begin to probe into how Jim’s wife was deserving of the award. Pam, who was also surprised, attempts to justify the result,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 9, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF One key worry for investors these days is whether massive fiscal stimulus, loose monetary policy, and accelerating economic growth will spark runaway inflation. That concern has been a major factor in driving down fixed income prices and boosting bond yields since the beginning of the year. However, we’ve been… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 26, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF (Note: Due to the upcoming Good Friday holiday, the next report will be published on April 9.) Since peaking in August, gold prices have been under pressure. Technically, prices broke support around 1750 in early March and have been attempting to consolidate. We have been holding gold in our… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 19, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF When discussing the fiscal deficit in a meeting with then-President Bill Clinton and his Council of Economic Advisors, Chief Strategist James Carville was quoted as saying, “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 12, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF With the U.S. dollar apparently poised for what could be a long phase of depreciation, investors are naturally looking more closely at foreign stocks for future growth. Japan has been a prime focus, not only because it sports the world’s third-largest economy and the third-largest equity market, but also… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 5, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In our 2021 Outlook, we had a forecast for the S&P 500 of 3918/4050. Since the index is close to that level, we have received questions about whether we are expecting little upside from here or if we intend to calibrate our expectations. This week’s Asset Allocation Weekly is… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 26, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The steady rise in the 10-year T-note has started to raise concerns about the impact of higher yields. This week’s report will examine what impact the steady rise in yields may have on the economy and markets. Essentially, the issue at hand is if, how, or when the FOMC… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 19, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF A poor jobs report for January cast doubt about the strength of the recovery. There was only a 49K rise in non-farm payrolls, well below expectations of 105K. Making matters worse, the previous month’s jobs report was revised downward from a loss of 140K to a loss of 225K.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 12, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Jan Tinbergen was a Dutch economist, the first to win the Nobel Prize for economics[1] for his work on applied dynamic models of economic processes. Perhaps his most important contribution to economic policy is the penning of the Tinbergen Rule, which states that policymakers need an equal number of… Read More »