Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation thoughts on a bi-weekly basis, updating the piece every other Monday.
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 15, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Rare events can be difficult for financial markets to accommodate. In general, prices in financial markets, which are the sum of estimates about the future, take a while to settle on the impact of something that doesn’t happen often. The recent pandemic, 9/11, the Great Financial Crisis, etc. are… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 8, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Although U.S. equity markets appear richly valued based on historical metrics, relative to interest rates, current values of relative earnings or sales are not extreme. Thus, the direction of interest rates and, more specifically, the direction of monetary policy, is a key element in equity values going forward. In… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 18, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF (N.B. Due to the upcoming holiday season, this report will be the last Asset Allocation Weekly for 2020. The next report will be published on January 8, 2021.) While 2020 was a year in which the word “unprecedented” has been used a lot, there are many areas where the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 11, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF After peaking at $2,063 in early August, gold prices fell to $1,760 at the end of November. This is a notable decline and, because our asset allocation models have included precious metals since 2018, it makes sense to see if anything has changed. We have several different ways to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 4, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Over the decades, keen observers of the financial markets have developed a number of theories and strategies that serve as useful tools for understanding market dynamics. One of the most famous such tools is the Dow Theory, which explains longer-term market movements based on the writings of Wall Street… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 20, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In the aftermath of the election and favorable news on vaccine progress, we have seen a notable backup in interest rates. The 10-year T-note yield is flirting with 1%. In this report, we will examine the future path of long-duration interest rates. We start with our 10-year T-note yield… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 13, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In our most recent Asset Allocation quarterly rebalance, we addressed the potential for election-related market disruption. In the end, we made only modest defensive adjustments to the portfolios and instead focused our allocations on continued policy support and economic recovery. In this week’s report, we will look at the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 6, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In his book entitled The Counter-Revolution in Monetary Theory, Milton Friedman states that, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in a sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” This sentiment shaped both… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 30, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Many investment managers think of “foreign equities” as one big, monolithic asset class and leave it at that. When setting a portfolio’s asset allocation strategy, many simply assign a certain percentage to the asset class and implement it by investing in a broad international index fund. Here at Confluence,… Read More »