Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation thoughts on a bi-weekly basis, updating the piece every other Monday.
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 5, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The residential real estate market has made a strong recovery over the past year. Virtually all areas of housing, including home prices, starts, and ownership are showing signs of strength. Let’s start with prices. Home prices have been very strong recently. This chart shows single-family existing home sales. Over… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 29, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Although there are always sundry risks to financial markets, a proximate and substantial risk comes from inflation. Of course, there is always risk of some degree of generalized price changes to financial assets. It also is important to realize that there is always some degree of inflation or deflation… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 22, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In Charles Dickens’s novel A Tale of Two Cities, he writes, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 15, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Rare events can be difficult for financial markets to accommodate. In general, prices in financial markets, which are the sum of estimates about the future, take a while to settle on the impact of something that doesn’t happen often. The recent pandemic, 9/11, the Great Financial Crisis, etc. are… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 8, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Although U.S. equity markets appear richly valued based on historical metrics, relative to interest rates, current values of relative earnings or sales are not extreme. Thus, the direction of interest rates and, more specifically, the direction of monetary policy, is a key element in equity values going forward. In… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 18, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF (N.B. Due to the upcoming holiday season, this report will be the last Asset Allocation Weekly for 2020. The next report will be published on January 8, 2021.) While 2020 was a year in which the word “unprecedented” has been used a lot, there are many areas where the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 11, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF After peaking at $2,063 in early August, gold prices fell to $1,760 at the end of November. This is a notable decline and, because our asset allocation models have included precious metals since 2018, it makes sense to see if anything has changed. We have several different ways to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 4, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Over the decades, keen observers of the financial markets have developed a number of theories and strategies that serve as useful tools for understanding market dynamics. One of the most famous such tools is the Dow Theory, which explains longer-term market movements based on the writings of Wall Street… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 20, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In the aftermath of the election and favorable news on vaccine progress, we have seen a notable backup in interest rates. The 10-year T-note yield is flirting with 1%. In this report, we will examine the future path of long-duration interest rates. We start with our 10-year T-note yield… Read More »