Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation thoughts on a bi-weekly basis, updating the piece every other Monday.
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 9, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Later this month, the European Union will begin auctioning off bonds to facilitate its economic recovery from the pandemic. In all, the EU plans to raise up to €850 billion over the next 5-7 years, with €750 billion still awaiting approval from the European Parliament. If approved, as we… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 2, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg was yet another political shock for 2020 in a year rife with unusual events. The year began with the first official case of COVID-19 in Washington State on January 20. The pandemic and subsequent measures to contain the virus have led to unprecedented… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 25, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF For more than a decade, U.S. investors who diversified their risk assets to include foreign equities have been sorely disappointed in the results. Since September 2010, for example, the S&P 500 Index of large cap U.S. stocks has provided an average annual total return of approximately 13.9%, but the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 18, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In June, we published a WGR on the EU’s decision to issue a Eurobond, a financial instrument backed by the full faith and credit of all the member states of the European Union. One of the reasons the U.S. dollar remains the global reserve currency is because the world… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 4, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF (NB: Due to the Labor Day holiday, the next report will be published on September 18.) The U.S. economy is driven primarily by consumer spending. In 2019, for example, personal consumption expenditures on goods and services accounted for 67.9% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). For the economy to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 28, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF As people think about the supplemental federal unemployment benefit of $600 per week that was in place through July, most would assume that if the total benefits exceed a person’s actual wages, they will choose to be unemployed instead of accepting employment. Anecdotal reports suggest that companies are running… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 21, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF One of the relationships we monitor is retail money market levels (RMMKs). In theory, any available liquidity could conceivably end up purchasing equities. But, RMMKs are used by investors in their brokerage accounts and thus are probably “closer” to equities compared to other forms of “near money,” such as… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 14, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Precious metals prices have risen recently, making new highs. This is a monthly chart for the nearest gold futures contract. As the chart shows, we have recently moved above the 2011 highs. In this report, we will discuss two areas that have supported this rise—the prevalence of negative real… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 7, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Investors often fall into the habit of sloppy thinking about government spending and its relation to the economy. For example, it’s easy to focus only on total government-sector expenditures. According to the White House Office for Management and Budget, total government outlays in the U.S. averaged 32.3% of nominal… Read More »