Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation thoughts on a bi-weekly basis, updating the piece every other Monday.
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Bank of Japan Cocks the Trigger (April 18, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In Hollywood movies, the classic device to convey a menacing threat is to have the tough-guy cop pull back the hammer on his revolver and cock the trigger. It’s not enough that the cop just points his gun at the criminal. Once you hear that “click,” you know… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Latin America’s Day in the Sun (April 4, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF As we’ve previously described in many of our publications, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the world in profound, long-lasting ways. We have defined how it will further cleave the world’s nations into at least two major geopolitical blocs with limited commercial and financial ties. We have… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – A Commodity Update (March 21, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Since the beginning of the year, commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, have been up 15.4%. All other major asset classes are down for the year. Among the S&P 500 sectors, only energy is positive. Commodity prices were strong going into the war in Ukraine, but… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Believe It or Not, Fiscal Policy Is Tightening (March 7, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The U.S. economy and government economic policies have many moving parts, but investors often latch onto just one or two indicators or policy initiatives to gauge where asset prices are heading. These days, their focus has been on consumer price inflation and the Federal Reserve’s plan to hike… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The U.S. Trade Deficit and Global Prices (February 22 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF When Democrats passed the CARES Act in January 2021, it was viewed initially as a political achievement. Polling from Politico/Morning Consult showed 75% of registered voters supported the bill three months after its passing. Meanwhile, Democrats began touting President Biden as the next Franklin D. Roosevelt. The legislation… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Gold: An Update of Current Conditions (February 7, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Gold moved steadily higher from the late summer of 2018 into August 2020. Prices then declined toward $1,700 and have since traced out a trading range between $1,700 and $1,900. In this report, we will update our views on the metal. (Source: Barchart.com) We have been holding gold… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Real Income versus the Wealth Effect; What is Driving Consumption? (January 24, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF One of the debates within economics is whether consumption is driven by income or wealth. The outcome of this debate is important for policymakers; if the goal of policy is lifting or constraining growth, knowing which factor is more important to consumption is critical. For example, if the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Path of Monetary Policy (January 10, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our expectation of no policy rate hikes this year is an out-of-consensus call in our 2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails. There are a couple of factors that suggest rate hikes this year. First, financial markets have factored in rate hikes. Fed funds futures suggest a greater… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – What’s Causing the Yield Curve to Flatten? (December 17, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF A note to readers: The Asset Allocation Weekly will go on holiday hiatus following today’s report and return as a bi-weekly publication, now on Mondays, beginning January 10, 2022. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, we wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! See… Read More »