Asset Allocation Reports
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Impossible Trinity (November 14, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The U.S. Dollar Index hit a 20-year high in September as the greenback gained against other global currencies. The climb in the U.S. dollar (USD) began in the post-pandemic recovery. Investors flocked to the greenback for safety as the U.S. economy outgrew its peers in the OECD. Aggressive… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Inflation Adjustment for Social Security Benefits in 2023 (October 31, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Even for dedicated, successful investors who have built up a substantial nest egg, Social Security retirement and disability investments can be an important part of one’s financial security. For many Americans, Social Security benefits may be the only significant source of income in old age. On average, Social… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In its battle against inflation, the Fed’s unrelenting tightening through the balance of this year and into next will be a major contributor to dampening demand. A worldwide economic contraction, inclusive of the U.S., is built into our three-year forecast. Our expectations are for a garden-variety recession in… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – An Update on Bonds (October 17, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our starting point for examining bond yields begins with our yield model. The key components are fed funds, the 15-year average of CPI (which is a proxy for inflation expectations), the five-year rolling standard deviation of CPI (a measure of inflation volatility), German Bund yields, oil prices, the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Gold Paradox (October 3, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Gold prices have been weak in recent months despite high levels of inflation. Gold is often considered an inflation hedge, and so the lack of strength is puzzling to many investors. In this report, we will take a look at gold and try to explain why prices have… Read More »