Asset Allocation Reports
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 2, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee The World Economic Forum in Davos was held recently and various comments were made about the dollar during the meetings. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin seemed to imply that the administration was talking the dollar lower, a violation of unwritten protocols that make it acceptable to have a weaker currency in support of growth… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 26, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Equity markets have been steadily rising, with the major indices making a series of new all-time highs. The recent impetus to equities has been the tax law. As we detailed in our recent addendum to our 2018 Outlook,[1] the tax bill will shift about 1.3% of GDP to after-tax corporate profits. This… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2018)
The passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 significantly increased our earnings forecast for the S&P 500 for 2018 from $129.82 to $144.84. We do not expect major changes to economic growth stemming from the tax legislation. Fed policy should continue to tighten through increases in the fed funds rate and a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 19, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Since the beginning of the year, long-term interest rates have moved higher. The constant maturity 10-year Treasury yield ended 2017 at 2.40%. That yield climbed to 2.60% in January, which is above our recently released 2018 Outlook forecast. We are not adjusting our forecast quite yet because the driving factor behind our… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 12, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we issued an addendum to our 2018 Outlook[1] to take into account the recent tax law changes. Our top-down analysis suggests there will be a significant increase in corporate earnings which will translate into higher S&P 500 earnings. Our original forecast was for $129.82[2] for 2018; we have increased our… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 5, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Equity markets had a very strong 2017, with the S&P 500 up over 20% for the year. Earnings rose more than expected, the economy continued to expand and investor sentiment was buoyant, all of which contributed to rising equities. The tax bill, signed in late December, will give equities a lift going… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 22, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee (N.B. This will be the last Asset Allocation Weekly for 2017. We thank our readers and wish them a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. The next report will be published on January 5, 2018.) As equity markets continue to trend higher, there are always worries about how long the bull market… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 15, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, the Federal Reserve released its Financial Accounts of the United States, formerly called the Flow of Funds report. It is a broad set of data that covers many aspects of the economy. Here we present some key charts from the report. This chart shows key private sector debt as a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 8, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee We have received a number of requests to update our S&P 500/Fed balance sheet model. This chart shows the results from our S&P 500/Fed balance sheet model. We have projected the model’s forecast using the expected path of balance sheet reduction. It shows that the equity index tended to follow monetary policy… Read More »