Asset Allocation Reports
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 9, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee The rapid rise in longer duration Treasury yields since the presidential election has been surprising. As of December 8, the 10-year T-note yield was approximately 2.40%. Although President-elect Trump’s policies will probably be inflationary, it is still unclear how much of his arguably vague plans will get passed. It is possible the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 2, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed the likely implications of President-elect Trump’s policies on the debt markets. This week, we will look at the impact on the dollar. Since the election, the dollar has generally moved higher. Using the Bloomberg dollar index, a broad-based currency measure, the dollar rose nearly 5% after the election. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 18, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Trumponomics looks as if it will be a combination of fiscal stimulus, trade restrictions and deregulation. It looks very likely that environmental regulations will be reversed and there have been promises of financial deregulation as well. The first two will likely reflate the economy. Proposed deregulation may help hold down energy prices… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 11, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Trump victory has significant ramifications for the economy and markets. The president-elect’s platform is somewhat ambiguous, which isn’t all that unusual; candidates want to build in some degree of flexibility that a detailed platform can reduce. Despite this lack of clarity, there are elements that are emerging that offer a guide… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 4, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee With the elections coming next week, it seems like a good time to look at how markets have historically performed during election cycles. We will compare the current election cycle against previous cycles. The blue line in the chart above shows the indexed market return for the period 1928-2015. To create this… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 28, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee My weekend exercise is to take my dogs on long walks. Both dogs seem to enjoy these walks and I use the time to listen to podcasts. I recently listened to a long podcast that interviewed Sebastian Mallaby, a British journalist and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He has… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 21, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee The dollar has been strengthening over the past few weeks; we believe much of this appreciation is due to expectations of tighter monetary policy. Fed funds futures suggest that there is a 60+% chance of a rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. Although the FOMC is divided and there are prominent… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2016)
Although presidential elections gather a lot of attention from investors, we believe the specific person or party getting elected in this cycle may be less important than the forces driving the elections. The Fed is likely to raise rates gradually and we don’t expect the tighter policy to create a recession. Our equity allocations remain… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 14, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Given continued sluggish economic growth and fears that monetary policy has reached the point where it can no longer stimulate growth, a renewed attention has been brought to discretionary fiscal policy. In the 1970s, discretionary fiscal policy fell out of favor due to a number of shortcomings: Public investment, if needed, should… Read More »