Asset Allocation Reports

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Where’s the Recession? Examining Employment (August 14, 2023)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In August of last year, our yield-curve indicator signaled an inversion, which implies that a recession is set to occur within 16 months, on average.  And so, we are still within range of a recession occurring by year’s end.  However, the economic data continues to show improvement, raising… Read More »

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Part-Time Troubles (July 31, 2023)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The job market has greatly surpassed the expectations of leading experts so far this year. Back in December, a Bloomberg survey found that economists predicted that monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve would push the country into a recession in the first half of 2023. They estimated… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2023)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast still includes a relatively mild recession followed by a recovery and the potential for an economic expansion. We expect inflation to moderate in the near-term but modestly re-accelerate in the back half of the forecast period given underlying structural influences. The Fed’s monetary policy is… Read More »

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Are Higher Interest Rates Bearish for Risk Assets? (July 17, 2023)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Orthodox finance and economics rests on the idea that higher interest rates reduce economic activity and lower the attractiveness of risk assets.  We have no real quarrel with the part about reducing economic activity as higher borrowing costs will tend to slow investment and consumer durable spending.  The… Read More »

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Green Shoots of Re-Industrialization (July 3, 2023)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In a little-noticed report last month, total construction spending in April was up a modest 6.1% from one year earlier, but private nonresidential construction spending was up a whopping 30.2%.  That marked the fourth straight month in which private, nonresidential construction, a proxy for commercial construction, was up… Read More »

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