Asset Allocation Reports
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Great Divergence (June 20, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The S&P 500 is up 10% year-to-date and briefly reached the 4,200 level in late May. The recent rally in equity markets has been driven by the rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI), which has bolstered tech stocks. In fact, much of this strong performance has come from… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Weak Capital Investment by State and Local Governments (June 5, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The standoff between the Biden administration and congressional Republicans over raising the federal debt limit has prompted us to think more deeply about some important longer-term issues regarding U.S. public spending. As we discuss in this report, a key problem is that one particular type of government investment… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Case for New Home Sales (May 22, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF A common topic among the financial markets is the impact of rapid monetary policy tightening. After years of accommodative monetary policy, the spike in inflation caused by the pandemic has continued to persist. To address the inflation issue, the FOMC has lifted the policy target rate at the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Why We Are Keeping Duration Short (May 8, 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Financial markets are complicated, and when faced with complication, there is an incentive to simplify. This simplification process takes on several forms, including narratives, bromides, adages, etc. Even the modeling process is a form of simplification. Sayings like “don’t fight the Fed” or “cash is trash” are often… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our forecast includes a normal recession, likely beginning later this year. We also expect a recovery during our three-year forecast period. The path of the Fed’s monetary policy will have an outsized effect on markets. Though market expectations are varied, we expect a measured path for fed funds.… Read More »