Daily Comment
Daily Comment (June 21, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Summer Solstice! Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade and the dollar: India joined other nations by applying tariffs against the U.S.[1] EU officials are worried that U.S. trade policy will upend its longstanding Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which is a system of… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Wednesday! Financial markets are moving steadily higher this morning, mostly on the lack of new trade pronouncements. Here is what we are watching today: Trade: The EU unveiled €2.8 bn of tariffs on U.S. goods[1] in retaliation to American tariffs. About a third of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s looking like a “tough Tuesday.” Risk-off is clearly evident—Treasuries, the yen and the dollar are higher, while gold is flat and equities, especially emerging markets, are under pressure. Oil and commodities are lower as well. Here’s the story: Trade: President Trump has threatened[1] an additional… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 18, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! It’s a risk-off day so far this morning. Here is what we are following: Tariffs and trade: While there wasn’t any major news on this issue over the weekend, financial markets are discounting the potential outcome of a trade war. Although there are legitimate… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 15, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Friday, the close of a very busy week. Today will be active, too. Here’s what we are following: Tariffs: As expected, the Trump administration leveled tariffs on $50 bn of Chinese imports this morning. The action will be broken into two tranches; the first set,… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 14, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s ECB decision day! The World Cup also begins today in Russia. It’s also Flag Day and President Trump’s birthday. The financial markets are trying to figure out if the Fed was hawkish or not. Here is what we are watching today: ECB: The European Central… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 13, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Fed Day! Financial markets are quiet in front of the “festivities.” Here is what we are watching: The Fed: We did a deeper dive in yesterday’s comment using the Mankiw models, but there are a few other important items. First, in the statement, there are… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although the news is historic, the market reaction is very quiet. Most likely, the financial markets are much more interested in what the FOMC does rather than the meetings in Singapore. Here is what we are watching: Singapore: To some extent, the odds favored a meeting… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 11, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! It’s going to be a busy week. The Federal Reserve meets this week. The president is having his historic meeting with Kim Jong-un. On Friday, we are expecting details on the steel and aluminum tariffs. Here is what’s happening today: Kim and Trump in… Read More »