Daily Comment
Daily Comment (March 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Framing the Fed: The FOMC meeting begins today. Here we lay out the basic path for monetary policy. The chart on the left shows the implied three-month LIBOR rate, two years deferred, derived from the Eurodollar futures market. Note that the yield has increased dramatically… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! We are seeing weaker equity markets and rising Treasury yields this morning. There is a lot going on—let’s dig in: A Brexit deal: Negotiators for the U.K. and EU have announced they mostly have an agreement in place. Although some problems remain unresolved, mostly… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Here is what we are watching this morning: The shakeup continues: Numerous media sources indicate that Gen. McMasters is on his way out as National Security Director. The most rumored replacement is John Bolton, a well-known hawk. If Bolton does get the job, the… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 15, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s the Ides of March! Be careful out there. Markets were very quiet overnight. Here is what we are watching: Trump 2.0: As expected, Larry Kudlow is replacing Gary Cohn as NEC director. This should be a somewhat market supportive appointment. Kudlow isn’t an economic heavyweight;… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 14, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Here is what we are watching this morning: May responds: The Russians ignored Britain’s deadline so PM May is expelling 23 Russian diplomats, the biggest expulsion since the Cold War. Expect a similar response from Russia. This is an issue that bears watching. We expect that… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 13, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] CPI came in on forecast. Financial markets were fearing faster inflation and so we are seeing the dollar ease and equities rally on the news. Here is what we are watching this morning: NEC Chair: Shahira Knight has signaled she doesn’t want the job, and Chris… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! We switched to daylight savings time on Sunday (a rather barbaric practice). Here is what we are watching this morning: Scrambling on Korea talks: Weekend reporting made it clear that the president agreed to talks on his own without consulting staff. The normal protocol… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 9, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s employment data Friday! We detail the data below but the quick summary is “shocking.” Wage growth moderated and payrolls came in stronger than expected. In the household survey, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% but that masked massive increases in employment and the labor force. … Read More »
Daily Comment (March 8, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After a torrent of news this week, it’s comparatively quiet this morning. Here is what we are watching: ECB: The ECB meets today and the statement contained a surprise—the central bank has dropped its pledge to expand QE if needed. This announcement signals the beginning of… Read More »