Daily Comment
Daily Comment (March 28, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities were weak around the world but we are seeing a mixed recovery in the early U.S. trade. Technology remains under pressure. Here is what we are watching today: Oops: Yesterday, we bravely opined that Kim Jong-un probably didn’t go to China. Well, today we get… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s risk-on around the world so far today. Here is what we are watching: Is Kim in Beijing? Although a number of reports have speculated the leader of North Korea has traveled to China, this news has yet to be confirmed. If he did travel to… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk assets are rising this morning after the weekend media suggests the rhetoric on trade is much more potent than the reality. Here is what we are watching this morning: BREAKING: President Trump to expel 60 Russian diplomats, joining 14 other EU nations taking similar actions… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 23, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a dark and stormy night for risk assets. However, we are seeing glimmers of light in U.S. equity futures as they have recovered their overnight losses and have turned positive. Here’s what we are watching: A budget deal: The budget deal passed Congress, meaning… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 22, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a risk-off morning so far. Equities are declining, Treasury yields are falling and the JPY is appreciating. The factors hitting risk markets are softer than expected PMI data (see table below) and trade fears. Here is what we are watching this morning: China trade: Tomorrow,… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 21, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Fed day! Here is what we are watching this morning: Powell speaks: The Fed meeting concludes today with virtual certainty of a 25 bps rate hike, taking the target to 1.75%. It should be noted that the target is actually the upper target rate; in… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Framing the Fed: The FOMC meeting begins today. Here we lay out the basic path for monetary policy. The chart on the left shows the implied three-month LIBOR rate, two years deferred, derived from the Eurodollar futures market. Note that the yield has increased dramatically… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! We are seeing weaker equity markets and rising Treasury yields this morning. There is a lot going on—let’s dig in: A Brexit deal: Negotiators for the U.K. and EU have announced they mostly have an agreement in place. Although some problems remain unresolved, mostly… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Here is what we are watching this morning: The shakeup continues: Numerous media sources indicate that Gen. McMasters is on his way out as National Security Director. The most rumored replacement is John Bolton, a well-known hawk. If Bolton does get the job, the… Read More »