Daily Comment
Daily Comment (March 22, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday saw the first 1% decline in the S&P since October. We have seen a strong rise in equities since the Trump election, with much of it coming from expectations of stronger economic growth due to fiscal spending, tax cuts and deregulation. It does… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 21, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted below, we have a full slate of Fed officials talking today. We expect these speakers to generally confirm the Fed’s policy stance for at least two more hikes this year, with the potential for a third. The most interesting member, Minneapolis FRB… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 20, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although it has been a quiet morning, there was a lot of news over the weekend. Here’s what we saw as noteworthy: Mnuchin won’t disavow protectionism: The G-20 communiqué usually includes language supporting free trade and opposing protectionism. Of course, in practice, there really… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 17, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy St. Patrick’s Day! It’s a quiet morning in what has been a busy week. The only major news today is that Chancellor Merkel, who was due to visit earlier this week but was unable due to the snowstorm, is in Washington today. … Read More »
Daily Comment (March 16, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The Dutch elections reflected recent polling that showed declining support for Geert Wilders. However, despite media commentary suggesting that populism has been halted on the continent, a second look suggests that it’s not quite that simple. To recap, Wilders’s PVV party gained five seats,… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 15, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Ides of March! There are two big events today—the FOMC meeting ends with an expected rate hike, along with new dots and a press conference, and the Dutch go to the polls. The key issue for the FOMC is the path of future… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 14, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The two big news items since yesterday morning are from the U.K. and the CBO. In the U.K., PM May won her battle for a clean Brexit bill, meaning that Article 50 can be declared soon. We look for the declaration to come by… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 13, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] BREAKING NEWS: The Atlanta FRB announced that Raphael Bostic has been named as the new president, replacing the retiring Dennis Lockhart. Bostic will take over the bank on June 5. He was a housing official in the Obama administration and his academic work is… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Jobs Day! The February jobs report was generally positive, with payroll easily beating estimates at 235k compared to the forecast of 200k. Wage growth was pretty strong, coming in line with expectations at 2.8%. Equities have responded positively to the data, whereas bonds… Read More »