Daily Comment
Daily Comment (May 15, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are quiet, although we are seeing a strong rally in crude oil (see below). Here are the themes we are following this morning. BREAKING: Edouard Philippe has been named PM of France. He is a member of the Republican Party, suggesting the… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 12, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although the Comey situation continues to dominate the news flow, we are reaching the point where there isn’t really anything new. So far, the financial markets are managing the situation calmly. The U.S. and China announced a trade agreement. On its surface, it doesn’t… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Media attention remains on the Comey firing. On this issue, there are three stories we view as notable this morning. Deputy AG Rosenstein threatened to resign: The WP[1] is reporting that the deputy AG threatened to resign as the narrative emerging from the White… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The story dominating this morning’s headlines is the Trump administration’s decision to fire FBI Director Comey. There is much speculation surrounding what is going on with the decision; our focus will remain on the impact on financial markets. So far, it hasn’t had much… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There isn’t a lot of economic or market news this morning. Most of the market talk is swirling around the low level of the VIX. Our contention is that the Fed is actively trying to suppress financial stress; in doing so, the need for… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 8, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Emmanuel Macron won a resounding victory in Sunday’s French presidential elections, winning 66.1% to 33.9%, an even bigger landslide than polls suggested. Le Pen did do well in the de-industrializing north and in the anti-immigrant south, but she struggled elsewhere. To win, Le Pen… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s employment day! We cover the data in detail below. The report was mostly strong, although wage growth continues to disappoint. On Sunday, the French go to the polls for a runoff election between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. The latest polls show… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 4, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The Federal Reserve did just about what we expected; it did acknowledge Q1 economic weakness but expressed no serious concern about slowdown, suggesting that it isn’t all that concerned about future growth. We note that fed funds futures are placing the odds of a… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 3, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another quiet day in world markets, but the FOMC does conclude its meeting today and is widely expected to make no moves. The item of interest will be the statement. We expect it to acknowledge the recent slowdown, but we expect the weakness… Read More »