Daily Comment
Daily Comment (May 2, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] May Day is over and markets have reopened. There wasn’t any market-moving news overnight, although there were some interesting items that provide some background for issues that will concern us in the coming months. Here is a roundup: China’s credit slowdown: Yesterday, we noted… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 1, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s May Day, the international labor day. As noted above, a large number of financial markets are closed today, including China and most European markets. Direct news flow is less than normal due to the closed markets. Here are the items of note: See… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 28, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets were fairly quiet overnight. The biggest mover was the EUR, which rose after Eurozone CPI came in at 1.9%, a bit higher than forecast. The financial markets are starting to discount a reduction in stimulus from the ECB, although Draghi’s comments yesterday suggest… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 27, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] ECB President Draghi is speaking at the time of this writing. Nothing has changed in terms of policy, but Draghi’s assessment of the economy is somewhat supportive, although still rather cautious. Initially, forex markets took his comments as modestly dollar bearish. However, in the… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 26, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] At 1:30 EDT, the White House is scheduled to release its tax proposal. There is quite a bit of speculation about what we will get from this announcement. Current “leaks” suggest a 15% tax rate for corporate taxes, including owner-operated firms, and a reduced… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 25, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing some follow through from yesterday’s French election rally, although the magnitude is understandably less. The financial markets appear comfortable that Macron will win in the runoff, and with good reason. It would be a real shocker to see Le Pen overcome… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 24, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets breathed a great sigh of relief as the first round of the French presidential election went about as expected. Macron and Le Pen will square off on May 7th to decide the presidency. Current polls show Macron with a commanding lead, generally… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 21, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] On Sunday, the French go to the polls. The most recent polling shows Macron as the most popular candidate at 24.0%, with Le Pen second at 21.5%, Fillon at 20.0% and Mélenchon at 19.5%. Polls open at 8:00 am (CEST), which is 2:00 am… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 20, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The euphoria surrounding the election of President Trump appears to be waning. Although the sentiment polls remain elevated, we note the fixed income markets are clearly showing some jitters. This chart shows the two-year/10-year Treasury spread. Although the curve is steeper than it was… Read More »