Daily Comment
Daily Comment (November 2, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets continue to trade lower this morning as anxiety over the election has increased. This morning, a Bloomberg Politics independent poll reported a tight race, with Clinton receiving 39% of the undecided vote over 35% for Trump. When third-party candidates are added, Clinton… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 1, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big news overnight came from China, where the PMI data was better than forecast (see below). The chart below of the Caixin[1] PMI shows evidence of an improving Chinese economy. The PMI has been improving since Q1, with a clear rise since late… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 31, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Halloween! There was lots of news over the weekend. Let’s dig in: The return of the emails. On Friday, FBI Director Comey announced the agency had come across a massive number of emails related to the private server issue that somehow ended up… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 28, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As we discuss below in detail, Q3 GDP rose 2.9%, exceeding estimates of 2.6%. The quick analysis of the data shows that two components were key to the report. First, investment rebounded but mostly due to a rebuild in inventories. The other major surprise… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 27, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Belgian political leaders were able to overcome Walloon’s opposition to the free trade deal with Canada and so, at the deadline, it looks like the agreement will be approved, assuming none of the other 27 nations decide to oppose the deal, too. Most of… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 26, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are weaker this morning off some disappointing earnings reports. This shift in sentiment is routine during earnings season. It does appear that the EU-Canadian free trade deal may be back on track as the Walloons are reportedly moderating their opposition.[1] Still,… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 25, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Overnight news flow was unusually low. Earnings are generally coming in favorably as energy companies recover. Equity markets remain relatively firm. The new money market rules officially went into effect on Oct. 14th and, now that they are in place, the short-term money markets… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 24, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good ISM data from Europe (see below) lifted global equity markets. Mergers are another factor affecting financial markets, with the biggest being Time Warner (89.48, +6.84) and ATT (37.49, -1.15). This one is getting lots of political attention. Donald Trump has already indicated that his administration… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The dollar is higher this morning on speculation that the Fed interest rate policy will diverge from the easy monetary policies implemented in Europe and Asia. The dollar rose yesterday and the euro fell as investors interpreted ECB President Draghi’s comments as an indication that stimulus… Read More »