Daily Comment
Daily Comment (September 13, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets are lower to sideways as oil tumbled this morning after the International Energy Agency revised its global demand estimates lower and indicated that the global inventory glut will last longer than it had previously estimated. Domestic oil inventories are expected to build this week… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 12, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although Friday’s sell-off in equities was impressive, the financial chatter over the weekend was almost non-existent. U.S. equity markets have been extended for some time and, so far, investors took Friday in stride. The proximate cause for the drop was a renewed fear of Fed tightening. … Read More »
Daily Comment (September 9, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There were two big news items overnight. First, North Korea detonated a nuclear device overnight, its fifth such test. Early reports suggest the blast was in the 20 to 30 kiloton range, not a big bomb (by comparison, the standard American warhead, W-88, is 475 kilotons),… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 8, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] This morning’s big news is the ECB’s decision to leave policy unchanged. The EUR rallied, Treasuries dipped and Eurozone yields rose as well. We are well into Draghi’s press conference at the time of this writing and it is evident that the ECB did nothing at… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 7, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are quiet again this morning, with the focus mostly on policy. The ECB meets on Thursday. Although there is a need for the bank to have a wider range of bonds to buy to maintain QE, the Germans are uncomfortable with easing the rules… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 6, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Well, it’s time to say goodbye to the summer. Our reflections on the long weekend’s news: The lead article in Sunday’s NYT was all about climate change and coastal flooding. The report documented rising sea waters affecting numerous communities along the Atlantic Seaboard, although there were… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 2, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy labor data day…just before Labor Day weekend! We will spend much of this report going over the data but we want to make a couple of comments about yesterday’s ISM manufacturing data. The report came in unusually weak, at 49.4 compared to expectations of 52.0. … Read More »
Daily Comment (September 1, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s global manufacturing PMI day (see Foreign Economic News section for full data table). China’s official PMI came in better than expected, crossing into expansionary territory with a reading above 50. At the same time, China’s Caixin PMI reading came in slightly below expectations but remained… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 31, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Talks of a Fed hike in September are intensifying as we approach the FOMC meeting on September 20-21 and markets look to the release of the employment report as an important indication of the possible policy rate path. Treasuries have sold off in August; the 10-year… Read More »