Daily Comment
Daily Comment (December 14, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s FOMC day! The statement comes out at 2:00 EST with the press conference a half hour later. We will also get new forecasts and a refreshed “dots” plot. Market expectations call for a “dovish tightening,” where the FOMC raises rates by 25 bps… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 13, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The FOMC begins its meeting today. Tomorrow we expect to see a 25 bps rate hike and little, if any, change to the structure of the dots plot. These expectations are based on the idea that, like all of us, the FOMC doesn’t know… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 12, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The two major news items this morning are OPEC and China. First, OPEC managed to procure pledged cuts of 558 kbpd from non-OPEC producers. This is the first time since 2001 that the cartel has managed to get production cut pledges from producers outside… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 9, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] BREAKING NEWS: The ECB has rejected a request by the troubled Italian bank Monte dei Paschi (BMDPY, $0.18) for an extension of the deadline for the bank to raise more capital. Italian banking authorities had requested more time to complete a €5 bn rescue… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 8, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The ECB gave us a modest surprise this morning by announcing a tapering of QE. Expectations called for an extension of the current program through September. Now, through March 2017, the bank will purchase €80 bn of bonds; from April to December, the bank… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 7, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Today is the 75th anniversary of the bombing of Pearl Harbor, a monumental event that led to U.S. involvement in WWII and eventually acceptance of the superpower role at Bretton Woods in 1945. It was another quiet market overnight. Perhaps the most important overnight… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 6, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was mostly quiet overnight with the market’s focus on the aftermath of the Italian referendum. The most relevant concern is the Italian banking system. The lead headline in today’s FT is “Monte dei Paschi Warned to Brace for State Bailout after Renzi Defeat.” … Read More »
Daily Comment (December 5, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Italians rejected former PM Renzi’s plans for government restructuring. This outcome was actually expected by pollsters, although the level of the rejection, at 60%, was at the highest end of expectations. As he promised, Renzi resigned. The president of Italy will now give time… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 2, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy employment data day! We cover the report in more detail below but, in a nutshell, the big surprise was a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, the lowest since August 2007. The unemployment rate fell due to a 266k drop in the… Read More »