Daily Comment
Daily Comment (June 27, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] British politics is in deep turmoil. The Labour Party is in disarray after 17 members called for the ouster of party leader Jeremy Corbyn. The Labour leader is deeply unpopular with the MPs but the party faithful adore him. Labour Party officials partly blame Corbyn for… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 24, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In a major shock, U.K. voters chose to exit the EU in yesterday’s referendum. The vote, which ran roughly 52/48 in favor of Brexit, defied polls and, for the first time in our experience, the betting pools as well. In the U.K., this is the second… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 23, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Voters in the U.K. go to the polls today to decide whether or not they are staying in the EU. The markets, however, appear to have already voted as we are seeing full “risk-on” activity, with the dollar and yen lower and Treasury yields higher. In… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 22, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] On the eve of the vote in the U.K., polling suggests that the Brexit vote will be close. However, the message coming from the betting pools maintains the leave camp at roughly 25%. (Source: Bloomberg) This chart shows the leave bets, which peaked around 45% but… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Polling suggests that the Brexit vote will be close. However, that isn’t the message coming from the betting pools, where the leave camp lost another four points. (Source: Bloomberg) This chart shows the leave bets, which peaked around 45% but have fallen precipitously to the 24%… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 20, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There are three big stories today. Leaning toward Bremain: In the wake of the assassination of MP Jo Cox, the first polls out suggest that the Bremain camp has halted the Brexit momentum. Still, polls suggest a tight race, with 45% wanting to remain in the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 17, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There are three big stories today. Jo Cox, martyr: MP Jo Cox was brutally assassinated yesterday while campaigning for the “remain” vote in Leeds, England yesterday. A Labor MP and a rising star in the party, she was attacked while leaving a meeting with constituents. According… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 16, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The last eight years have been full of unusual events. We have seen ZIRP, NIRP, QE of all stripes, massive increases in central bank balance sheets, collapses in monetary multipliers, low inflation, consistently wrong forecasts of higher interest rates, massive borrowing in China, flash crashes, commodity… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 15, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] BREAKING NEWS: Nigeria announced it is moving toward a market driven exchange rate policy, likely taking steps toward allowing its currency, the naira, to float. Although the Central Bank of Nigeria has allowed more flexible exchange rates recently, allowing a full float will likely lead to… Read More »