Daily Comment
Daily Comment (April 11, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] German 10-year sovereign yields are down to 11 bps this morning. Falling German yields are translating into low U.S. Treasury yields. (Source: Bloomberg) Since mid-2013, when Chairman Bernanke unveiled tapering, the two yields have been closely linked. Interestingly enough, the spread between these rates has been… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 8, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The WTO released its global trade data for 2015 yesterday along with its forecasts for this year and next. The sum of imports and exports rose 2.8% last year and is expected to rise at the same pace this year, rising to 3.6% in 2017. The… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 7, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday’s FOMC minutes generally confirmed what we have been hearing from committee members over the past few weeks, namely, that international concerns are worrying members and keeping policy steady. Of the 17 members on the committee, eight viewed the risks to be shifting toward slower growth,… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 6, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another quiet overnight session. Oil prices jumped on reports from the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) weekly oil storage data, which showed an unexpected draw in stockpiles. The API data can diverge from the official DOE data, which we receive at 10:30 EDT today. A… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 5, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing weaker equity markets this morning with little news flow. The Treasury has announced new inversion rules that will likely discourage some of the merger activity. The Panama papers are also sowing fear in the financial markets. However, the most likely reason for the… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 4, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There wasn’t too much market news overnight as several Asian markets were closed for holiday. However, there were several major news splashes from WikiLeaks, one of which published a massive database from the offshore law firm Mossack Fonseca. A German newspaper, Süddeutsche Zeitung, obtained the data… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 1, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment day! We will go into much more detail below, but we are seeing solid improvement in the labor market. Most importantly, the labor force is finally starting to expand; in fact, the unemployment rate rose this month in a good way as the labor… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 31, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Standard & Poor’s lowered China’s credit rating outlook from stable to negative, citing a slower than expected economic rebalancing. Although Chinese risk markets dropped initially, they have recovered since, indicating that the rating outlook cut is not likely to have a long-term effect. We saw similar… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 30, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets surged globally yesterday as Fed Chair Yellen re-confirmed the central bank’s intention to move rates up slowly, citing weak global growth. This was exactly the kind of reconciliatory signal that the markets were looking for after several FRB presidents had voiced their support for… Read More »