Daily Comment
Daily Comment (July 28, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC statement was generally as expected. The committee acknowledged the economy improved from their last meeting. Labor markets are better and household spending is robust. On the other hand, business investment remains sluggish. Overall, the FOMC indicates that “near-term risks to the economic outlook have… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 27, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC meeting concludes today. Expectations are very low for this meeting although we would not be surprised to see the statement take on a more hawkish tone. Markets are not expecting the FOMC to move higher this year; in fact, the fed funds futures don’t… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 26, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC meeting begins today and concludes tomorrow. As we noted yesterday, we expect the Fed to try to inject expectations of potential tightening. We also expect the FOMC to fail on this goal. The financial markets are quite sure the Fed won’t move until next… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 25, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another mostly quiet night. We did see European equities lift on better economic sentiment data (see below). The G-20 meeting ended with a mostly banal communiqué. There was some discussion of fiscal policy by the group. However, the G-20 structure is so unwieldy that… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 22, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The GOP convention wrapped up last night; the Democrats hold theirs next week. Financial markets are very quiet this morning, typical of the “dog days” of summer. There were two items of note. First, the flash PMI data from the U.K. was quite weak, with the… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 21, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The JPY rose strongly overnight after media reports quoted BOJ Governor Kuroda as saying that helicopter money was not being considered and would never be implemented. This comment came as a surprise as the financial markets have been steadily discounting some sort of action from the… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 20, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Market commentary is starting to suggest that the FOMC may be heading toward a rate hike later this year. Since the Brexit event is now behind us and the U.S. economy has stabilized, if the Fed wants to return to a tightening mode, it could. However,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 19, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial and commodity markets are very quiet this morning as the summer doldrums are starting to become evident. However, three news items did catch our attention and are worthy of comment: GOP Platform calls for a return to Glass-Steagall: The Glass-Steagall Act separated commercial from investment… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 18, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big weekend news was the failed coup in Turkey. Late Friday, news began to emerge of unusual troop movements within the country. By evening, it was clear that a full-blown coup attempt was underway. President Erdogan issued a statement to his followers via FaceTime to… Read More »