Daily Comment
Daily Comment (May 24, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another quiet morning in front of Chair Yellen’s speech on Friday. Yesterday, Dallas FRB President Harker added to voices calling for a rate hike this summer. Fed funds futures are putting the odds of a June hike at about 32%, but the odds are over… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 23, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The G-7 meeting ended with a reaffirmed pledge not to weaken currencies. Japanese Finance Minister Aso said that the country will not be delaying a planned sales tax hike. Additionally, BOJ Governor Kuroda indicated that the central bank is ready to use additional monetary stimulus as… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 20, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets were quiet overnight. The G-7 meeting, being held in Japan, is probably the most important event going on at the moment. So far, Japan has been politely discouraged from using tools to weaken the JPY. We suspect that after this meeting ends, Japan will take… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 19, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC minutes were more hawkish than the market expected. In fact, in the minutes, the members expressed concern that the financial markets are underestimating the likelihood of a rate move. The committee felt that foreign risks have lessened and several suggested that the balance of… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 18, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There are two items of interest this morning, which are linked. First, worries about the Fed moving rates higher are starting to rise. Fed funds futures are now projecting a 12% chance of a hike in June. Although this level remains low, it is up from… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 17, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a strong rally yesterday, we are seeing some consolidation this morning. There is lots of news this week, with a full lineup of U.S. economic data today (see below), Fed minutes tomorrow and a G-7 meeting over the weekend. The latter will be quite interesting. … Read More »
Daily Comment (May 16, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Oil prices are surging this morning as short-term outages dominate the news. Conflict in the Delta region of Nigeria has reduced production by 0.6 mbpd. Although Canadian production does appear to be returning, the recent outages will likely lead to inventory declines in the U.S. for… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 13, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted below, there was an interesting divergence between Q1 Eurozone GDP growth and German GDP growth. The former was revised lower to 0.5% (2.0% annualized for the quarter), while German GDP was revised higher to 0.7% (2.8%) from 0.6% (2.4%). Spain also grew strongly, up… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 12, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As expected, the Brazilian Senate voted 55-22[1] in favor of an impeachment trial against President Rousseff. She will step down from power today and VP Michel Temer will take power. A trial will be held over the next 180 days. It ends with a Senate vote. … Read More »