Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Bessent Gambit (March 24, 2025)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Before the election, there was a sense developing that suggested a major shift in how the US manages the global financial system. This vibe was described as the “Mar-a-Lago Accord,” suggesting the changes were similar in magnitude to historic events such as the Bretton Woods Agreement, Nixon’s closure of the… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – United Arab Emirates: An Overview (March 10, 2025)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been steadily gaining prominence not only in the Middle East, but throughout the world. With a growing role in finance and banking and as an investment destination, it is increasingly becoming known as the “Switzerland of the Middle East.” Our recent report on… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Sanctions as an Investment Risk (February 24, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In the last two decades, the United States has dramatically increased its use of international economic and financial sanctions to stop or deter behaviors at odds with US national security or foreign policy. The Treasury Department has estimated that the US had such sanctions on over 9,400 individuals, entities,… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Middle Eastern Stock Markets: An Overview (February 10, 2025)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF All the attention paid to the strong performance of United States stock markets in recent years can easily distract us from what might be happening in other markets around the world. A quick review of global stock markets reveals that one region, the Middle East, has seen its market… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Trump and the Political Economy of Alliances (January 27, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Now that President Trump is back in office, we think investors are about to see major changes in how the United States deals with the rest of the world. Trump, Treasury Secretary Bessent, and other key officials have signaled they will push to dramatically shift US policies on national… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Syrian Surprise: Implications of a Sudden Regime Change (January 13, 2025)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF On December 8, 2024, the world awoke to a dramatically changed order in the Middle East. Seemingly out of nowhere, the Assad family regime, which had stood for 54 years and withstood 13 years of civil war, fell to a sudden rebel onslaught. What seemingly began only 11 days… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2025 Geopolitical Outlook (December 16, 2024)
by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team | PDF (This is the final BWGR of 2024; the next report will be published on January 13, 2025.) Each December, we at Confluence publish our annual Geopolitical Outlook to give readers a sense of the issues that will likely dominate the international landscape in the coming year. We don’t… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Implications of North Korean Soldiers in the Ukraine War (November 18, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF In late October, the world learned that North Korean soldiers had deployed to Russia to assist their allies in the Ukraine war. This dramatically changed the geopolitical profile of the conflict. Allies and partners of both Ukraine and Russia have been providing material and financial support to both countries… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rising US & Global Debt: A Perspective Check (November 4, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF Concern has been rising across American society and throughout much of the world about the level of United States government debt. An increasing number of voices are sounding the alarm that the debt level is unsustainable, and crisis is on the way. Debates rage about how such a crisis… Read More »