Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2025 Geopolitical Outlook (December 16, 2024)
by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team | PDF (This is the final BWGR of 2024; the next report will be published on January 13, 2025.) Each December, we at Confluence publish our annual Geopolitical Outlook to give readers a sense of the issues that will likely dominate the international landscape in the coming year. We don’t… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Implications of North Korean Soldiers in the Ukraine War (November 18, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF In late October, the world learned that North Korean soldiers had deployed to Russia to assist their allies in the Ukraine war. This dramatically changed the geopolitical profile of the conflict. Allies and partners of both Ukraine and Russia have been providing material and financial support to both countries… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rising US & Global Debt: A Perspective Check (November 4, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF Concern has been rising across American society and throughout much of the world about the level of United States government debt. An increasing number of voices are sounding the alarm that the debt level is unsustainable, and crisis is on the way. Debates rage about how such a crisis… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Israel’s Pager Caper and Supply Chain Security (October 21, 2024)
by Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Can you trust your refrigerator? What if it could be weaponized against you, perhaps by being booby-trapped to explode, release poisonous gas, or just stop working on the command of some foreign enemy communicating with its computer chip? Just as important, if everyday products connected to… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The US Presidential Election: Foreign Policy Implications (October 7, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA and Thomas Wash | PDF History shows that, despite the promises made as candidates, United States presidents display remarkable foreign policy consistency from one administration to the next. While often distinguishing themselves in the realm of domestic policy, the imperatives of national security tend to force the hands of presidents into… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Eight Megatrends Every Investor Should Know (September 23, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF One of the defining characteristics of our investment strategy work here at Confluence is that we pay close attention to big, global trends in geopolitics, economics and trade, demographics, technology, and even social and political developments. We then try to determine how to incorporate those trends into our strategies,… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Prospects for the Dollar in a Fracturing World (September 9, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As investment managers and strategists, we are often asked by clients about our outlook for the United States dollar. Very often, our clients have heard some worrisome news about a rival currency becoming more attractive than the greenback or global investors selling off the dollar because of economic or… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Recent Iranian Election: Results & Implications (August 19, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF The Iranian political landscape experienced a major earthquake on May 19, when the country’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a helicopter crash on his return from a visit to neighboring Azerbaijan. Consequently, in June and July, Iran conducted a two-round presidential election with a surprising result. In a country… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The US Geopolitical and Economic Bloc as an Investment Region (August 5, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF More than a decade ago, we at Confluence began describing how United States voters have become more reluctant to shoulder the costs of global hegemony. We’ve shown how increased populist isolationism in the US and other Western nations helped embolden Chinese General Secretary Xi, Russian President Putin, and other… Read More »