Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Middle Eastern Stock Markets: An Overview (February 10, 2025)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF All the attention paid to the strong performance of United States stock markets in recent years can easily distract us from what might be happening in other markets around the world. A quick review of global stock markets reveals that one region, the Middle East, has seen its market… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Trump and the Political Economy of Alliances (January 27, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Now that President Trump is back in office, we think investors are about to see major changes in how the United States deals with the rest of the world. Trump, Treasury Secretary Bessent, and other key officials have signaled they will push to dramatically shift US policies on national… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Syrian Surprise: Implications of a Sudden Regime Change (January 13, 2025)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF On December 8, 2024, the world awoke to a dramatically changed order in the Middle East. Seemingly out of nowhere, the Assad family regime, which had stood for 54 years and withstood 13 years of civil war, fell to a sudden rebel onslaught. What seemingly began only 11 days… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2025 Geopolitical Outlook (December 16, 2024)
by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team | PDF (This is the final BWGR of 2024; the next report will be published on January 13, 2025.) Each December, we at Confluence publish our annual Geopolitical Outlook to give readers a sense of the issues that will likely dominate the international landscape in the coming year. We don’t… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Implications of North Korean Soldiers in the Ukraine War (November 18, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF In late October, the world learned that North Korean soldiers had deployed to Russia to assist their allies in the Ukraine war. This dramatically changed the geopolitical profile of the conflict. Allies and partners of both Ukraine and Russia have been providing material and financial support to both countries… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rising US & Global Debt: A Perspective Check (November 4, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF Concern has been rising across American society and throughout much of the world about the level of United States government debt. An increasing number of voices are sounding the alarm that the debt level is unsustainable, and crisis is on the way. Debates rage about how such a crisis… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Israel’s Pager Caper and Supply Chain Security (October 21, 2024)
by Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Can you trust your refrigerator? What if it could be weaponized against you, perhaps by being booby-trapped to explode, release poisonous gas, or just stop working on the command of some foreign enemy communicating with its computer chip? Just as important, if everyday products connected to… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The US Presidential Election: Foreign Policy Implications (October 7, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA and Thomas Wash | PDF History shows that, despite the promises made as candidates, United States presidents display remarkable foreign policy consistency from one administration to the next. While often distinguishing themselves in the realm of domestic policy, the imperatives of national security tend to force the hands of presidents into… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Eight Megatrends Every Investor Should Know (September 23, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF One of the defining characteristics of our investment strategy work here at Confluence is that we pay close attention to big, global trends in geopolitics, economics and trade, demographics, technology, and even social and political developments. We then try to determine how to incorporate those trends into our strategies,… Read More »