Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thirty Years Since the Fall of the Berlin Wall: A Retrospective, Part II (November 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on Dec. 2.) In Part I of this report, we presented the first two of four ideas about the post-Cold War era and how well they fared. This week, we will cover the remaining two ideas and conclude with market ramifications.… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thirty Years Since the Fall of the Berlin Wall: A Retrospective, Part I (November 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady On August 13, 1961, the German Democratic Republic (GDR), otherwise known as East Germany, began construction on a barrier that would slow the emigration of Germans to the Federal Republic of Germany, known as West Germany. Prior to the construction of the wall, it is estimated that 3.5 million East Germans emigrated… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Japan: Will the Tax Hike Bite? Part II (November 4, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Some of Japan’s biggest economic hiccups have started with a major tax hike, so investors are wondering what will happen following a boost in the country’s value-added tax (a type of sales tax) that went into effect early last month. To lay the groundwork for understanding the VAT hike and its… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Japan: Will the Tax Hike Bite? Part I (October 28, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Even though Japan has one of the world’s largest economies and accounts for a hefty share of global stock market capitalization, it isn’t getting nearly as much attention from investors as it did during its boom years in the 1970s and 1980s. In part, that’s because Japan’s economic growth has become… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the Carter Doctrine: Part II (October 21, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we identified the need to stabilize three areas of the world prone to war in order to maintain global peace. We focused on the Middle East and discussed the development of the Carter Doctrine, examining how the doctrine has been enforced since its inception. In this… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the Carter Doctrine: Part I (October 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In our 2018 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook we opened the report with an analysis of America’s evolving hegemony. We noted that America’s hegemonic narrative centered on containing communism. This factor united Americans to accept the burden of the superpower role. However, embedded in that commitment to contain communism was the “freezing” of three… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Japan-South Korea Dispute: Part II (October 7, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA In Part I of this report, we reviewed the history of Japanese-Korean relations over the last several centuries, highlighting the Japanese invasions of Korea in the 1590s and 1890s, Japan’s assassination of a Korean queen in 1895, and Japan’s colonization of Korea from 1910 to 1945. We also showed how Japanese… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Japan-South Korea Dispute: Part I (September 30, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Since early July, the financial press has been reporting on a continued trade spat between Japan and South Korea. The reports have focused on a series of tit-for-tat trade restrictions the countries have imposed on each other, which are ostensibly tied to South Korean anger over Japan’s behavior in the runup… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Weaponizing the Dollar: The Nuclear Option, Part II (September 23, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we reviewed the U.S. current account problem and examined how the persistent deficit affects the economy. We also discussed how the U.S. current account deficit is tied to American hegemony and ways the deficit could be addressed. This week, using the background established in Part I,… Read More »