Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Weekly Geopolitical Report – What to do with China: Part II (February 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we laid out the two narratives that the U.S. and China are using to frame relations between the two countries. This week, we will summarize the two positions and examine the potential for war using the historical examples of British policy toward the U.S. and Germany, offering… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – What to do with China: Part I (January 28, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady Graham Allison published a controversial book in 2017 in which he argued that the probability for a major war increases when an established hegemon faces an emerging power that threatens the hegemon’s position. He used Thucydides, the Greek historian who wrote a history of the war between Sparta and Athens, as his model… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Inflections: Part II (January 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B. Due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the next issue of this report will be published on January 28.) In Part I of this report, we discussed the issues surrounding predicting inflection points, which are defined as reversals of long-term trends. In this week’s issue, we will examine two long-term trends that… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Inflections: Part I (January 7, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady History seems to move in broad cycles. Beliefs come into and fall out of favor. Despite evidence of these cycles, people tend to “forecast with a straight edge.” In other words, we assume trends that are in place will remain in place forever. And, thus, it can come as a shock to society… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2019 Geopolitical Outlook (December 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B. This will be the last WGR of 2018. Our next report will be published January 7, 2019.) As is our custom, we close out the current year with our geopolitical outlook for the next one. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Malevolent Hegemon: Part III (December 10, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady This week, we conclude our series by describing what we view as a new model for the superpower role, the Malevolent Hegemon. We will discuss the differences between this model and the previous one. With this analysis in place, we will examine the potential outcomes from this shift and conclude with potential market… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Malevolent Hegemon: Part II (December 3, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I, we examined the basic role of the hegemon and the unique model the U.S. has created, which we dubbed the “Benevolent Hegemon.” This week, we discuss why many Americans have become disenchanted with this model, which is pressuring policymakers to either jettison the superpower role or significantly redefine it. Next… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Malevolent Hegemon: Part I (November 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Since the election of Donald Trump, there has been much discussion about the demise of the “Liberal International Order,” or LIO. Several books on the topic have been published recently[1] and the general tenor is that the U.S. is giving up global leadership and the world is in trouble. We have been making… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the Khashoggi Incident: Part II (November 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (NB: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on November 26.) Last week, we discussed the issue of succession in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). In Part II, we will begin with a discussion of the regional power rivalry between Turkey and the KSA, then outline Turkish President… Read More »