Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the Iran Deal (August 3, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady Last month, the P5+1[1] and Iran concluded negotiations on a nuclear deal. In this report, we will offer some reflections on the agreement, including why it occurred, and the major reason why the U.S. negotiated this agreement and the underlying issues. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications. View the full report… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Laudato Sí (July 27, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, the Vatican held a meeting of the mayors of some of the world’s largest cities to discuss climate change. This meeting was part of Pope Francis’s efforts to add to the discussion of climate change, which was the subject of a recent encyclical, Laudato Sí. In this report, we will… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Imperial Germany (July 20, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we analyzed the Greek/Eurozone negotiations using game theory as an explanatory tool. In this report, we will review the basic geopolitics of Europe, the political response and the evolution of the Eurozone. Using this background, we will examine Germany’s actions in the most recent Greek crisis. As always, we will… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Greek Games: An Update (July 13, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady On Sunday, July 5th, Greeks voted in a special referendum to decide whether to accept the troika’s most recent proposal to end the current debt and financial crisis. Voters in Greece overwhelmingly rejected the EU’s offer. Since the vote, EU and Greek officials have been meeting, trying to determine the path forward. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2015 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 29, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady As is our custom, at mid-year, we update our geopolitical outlook for the rest of the year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international situation into year’s end. It is not designed to be exhaustive;… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Cyber Security and Terrorism: Case Studies (June 22, 2015)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA In April 2007, Estonian government workers found their internet connectivity interrupted and e-mail access compromised. In hindsight, this marked the beginning of a three-week cyber attack on the country’s government and private servers. The attacks forced many servers to block international connections. At the same time, street riots by ethnic Russians were… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – An Alternative to Gandhi (June 15, 2015)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Shortly after being elected into office last year, the new Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, visited a memorial for Veer Savarkar, an Indian independence fighter, praising his lifetime of “tireless efforts toward the regeneration of our motherland.” On its surface the move seems to be nothing out of the ordinary; however, the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Importance of FIFA (June 8, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady On May 27th, Swiss authorities arrested several top officials affiliated with Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) on various charges, mostly related to corruption. Later that day, the U.S. Attorney General and the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) unveiled indictments against FIFA officials, indicating that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) had… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Greece: An Update (June 1, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady In February, we reported on the situation in Greece. Over the past few months, there has been no resolution to Greece’s debt problem, despite numerous deadlines and meetings. In our earlier report, we framed the conflict between Greece and the EU in terms of game theory. In this report, we will begin… Read More »