Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The New World Order: Part I (March 16, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady As our regular readers know, we have been focusing for several years on the issue of the uncertainty surrounding America’s superpower role. It has been our position that the U.S. has lacked a coherent foreign policy since the Cold War ended in the early 1990s. Although we cannot definitely say that a… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Good luck, Jonathan. Good luck, Nigeria. (March 9, 2015)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Nigeria will hold its presidential election on March 28, following a six-week postponement due to heavy fighting in the northern region of the country. The election promises to be a close one between the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, and a former military leader, Muhammadu Buhari. Jonathan represents the Christian, southern region of Nigeria,… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Yemen: A Land with a Rich Past and a Poor Present (March 2, 2015)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA The country of Yemen is slowly dissolving in the midst of an ongoing civil war. The Houthi movement has aggressively secured territories in the north, including taking over the capital city of Sana, while al-Qaeda has widened its activities in the south. At the end of January, Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Détente with Iran: An Update (February 23, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady This report is an update to a similarly titled piece published in 2013 (see WGR, 10/7/2013, Détente with Iran?). The primary impetus for this update comes from a recent article by Michael Doran outlining President Obama’s “secret” Iran strategy, but similar themes have also been offered by other strategists. In this report, we will… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Greek Games (February 9, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady After the Syriza party won 149 of the 300 seats in the Jan. 24th Greek elections, European markets have been roiled by worries over another crisis developing. The party has engaged in some provocative behaviors; its leader and Greece’s new prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, decided that his first official visit would be to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on 1986 (February 2, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady Since last summer, oil prices have suffered a precipitous decline. The weakness is mostly due to supply and demand factors; however, because oil is a market with an active cartel, the decision by the cartel leader, Saudi Arabia, to allow prices to decline is also a key factor in price weakness. This isn’t… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Saudi Succession (January 20, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady On New Year’s Eve, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia was hospitalized with pneumonia. According to reports, he is taking visitors and will probably survive this illness. On the other hand, the king is at least 90 years old and is becoming increasingly frail. In light of his advanced age and declining health, an… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – European Populism (January 12, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady In our 2015 Geopolitical Outlook, one of the risks we discussed was the rise of populism. In this week’s report, we will focus on European populism. The recent attack on the employees of Charlie Hebdo in France makes this a timely topic. In this report, we will define populism, examine why populism has… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Cuban Thaw (January 5, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady On Wednesday, December 17, 2014, President Obama surprised the country by announcing a prisoner exchange and negotiations to begin establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba. Given that the Eisenhower administration broke off diplomatic relations with Cuba in January 1961, even considering resuming relations is a major change in policy. In this report, we will… Read More »