Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – U.S. Intelligence Sharing as a Tool of International Relations (April 17, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Why should investors care about international relations? Why should they pay attention as great powers jostle for influence and dominance across the globe? One simple answer is that the global economy tends to grow better when there is one dominant country or “hegemon” that provides security, order, effective instruments for… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Windsor Framework (April 3, 2023)
Thomas Wash | PDF On February 27, the United Kingdom and the European Union announced an important agreement to resolve disputes over the Irish border. The arrangement, referred to as the Windsor Framework, has been hailed by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as a step toward restoring trust between the EU and U.K. However, despite… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Update on the U.S.-China Military Balance of Power (March 20, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In early 2021, we published a series of reports assessing the overall balance of power between the United States and China in military, economic, and diplomatic terms. Looking comprehensively at both countries’ power and sources of power, we judged that the U.S. retains the greater capacity to influence the world… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Enter the Petroyuan (March 6, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF In December, General Secretary Xi made a state visit to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) where he discussed the potential for trading oil in CNY. Although nothing formal was signed on this issue, Xi suggested that the KSA should trade oil and gas using the CNY for settlement. Talks between… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Chip War: Book Review (February 21, 2023)
Thomas Wash | PDF It was simple in the beginning. American firms developed all the designs for semiconductor chips, and Asian manufacturers turned them into reality. It was a match made in capitalist heaven. This all changed after the pandemic exposed supply chain vulnerabilities in the business model, and the situation only worsened after Russia’s… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Is Japan’s Sun Rising Again? (February 6, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Ever since Japan’s “bubble economy” imploded at the end of the 1980s and its population began to fall in the 2000s, investors have tended to dismiss the country’s financial markets as well as its geopolitical and economic standing. Japan’s pacifist constitution and its diplomatic deference to the United States constrained… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The New German Problem (January 23, 2023)
Thomas Wash | PDF When times are tough, you discover who your real friends are, just ask the European Union. From 1860 to 1945, Germany struggled to keep the peace with its neighbors. Commodity-deprived and lacking natural barriers, Germany has sought to impose its will throughout Europe to protect itself from being invaded or cut… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – How China Will Manage Its Evolving Geopolitical Bloc (January 9, 2023)
Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In mid-2022, we published a report showing that as the United States begins to step back from its traditional role as the global hegemon, the world is fracturing into relatively separate geopolitical and economic blocs. Our study looked at almost 200 countries around the world and aimed to objectively predict… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2023 Geopolitical Outlook (December 12, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the last BWGR of 2022; the next report will be published on January 9, 2023.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of… Read More »