Research & News
The 2025 Outlook: A Year of Political and Policy Change (December 20, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, Daniel Ortwerth, and Mark Keller, CFA Summary of Expectations | PDF The Economy Economic Growth We expect the US economy to keep growing throughout 2025, with no recession. However, current growth is only moderate, and because of elevated real interest rates and cooling labor demand, growth could… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 20, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! The market is processing the latest PCE price index data. In sports news, Tottenham Hotspur defeated Manchester United to make it to the semifinals of the Carabao Cup. In today’s Comment, we will discuss why the government may be headed… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 19, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning. The market is digesting the latest GDP data. In sports, Real Madrid secured its fifth trophy of the year by winning the FIFA Intercontinental Cup. In today’s Comment, we’ll analyze the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision, explore why long-term bond… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 18, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! The market is closely watching for the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision. In sports, Real Madrid’s Vinícius Júnior has been awarded FIFA’s The Best player, a moment many see as restoring balance to the football world. In today’s Comment, we’ll… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 17, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with new developments in Japanese monetary and energy policy. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including a shock resignation by Canada’s finance minister and signs that… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2025 Geopolitical Outlook (December 16, 2024)
by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team | PDF (This is the final BWGR of 2024; the next report will be published on January 13, 2025.) Each December, we at Confluence publish our annual Geopolitical Outlook to give readers a sense of the issues that will likely dominate the international landscape in the coming year. We don’t… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 16, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the latest signs of economic weakness in the eurozone. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including the naming of a new prime minister in France,… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 13, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! The market is digesting the latest data from Broadcom as it assesses the outlook for chipmakers heading into the new year. In sports, LeBron James’s son achieved a career-high 30 points during his first G League road game. In today’s… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 12, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! The market is analyzing the latest PPI data to gauge the Fed’s next move. In sports news, former New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick has agreed to lead the University of North Carolina’s football team. Today’s Comment will explore why… Read More »