Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 30, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF One of the key developments in financial markets recently has been the quick rebound in bond prices and the associated drop in yields. As investors started to sense faster economic growth and the prospect of rising inflation in the first quarter, they eagerly sold down their bond holdings,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 29, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After last week’s selling, prices have recovered back above $70 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 4.1 mb compared to the 2.1 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged this week. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.2 mbpd at… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Protests in Cuba (July 26, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Over the past two weeks, Cuba has been racked with widespread protests. As this map suggests, the civil unrest was scattered across the island nation. The widespread nature of the protests suggests some degree of coordination (and, it appears there was). Two groups, the San Isidro Movement and the 27N… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2021)
Letter to Investors | PDF Judging by the questions we’ve received in the last couple of months, the stock and bond markets have confused many. This is OK. Trying to explain why the markets have recently done something is an impossible task. In a former life I was regularly asked by business reporters why the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 23, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The availability of ample investment capital is vital for economic growth in both rich, well-developed countries and poorer developing nations. However, if the available capital is poorly utilized and/or debt levels get too high, the results can be quite negative. In such a situation, economic growth can slow… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 22, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF The OPEC+ agreement led to a deep selloff in oil prices, but the decline has attracted new buyers. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 2.1 mb compared to the 4.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged this week. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF There is no recession within our forecast period. Monetary and fiscal stimulus should continue in the U.S. over our three-year forecast period, yet at a decreasing rate as the economy recovers. After a surge in inflation this year and into next year, resulting from the economic recovery following… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Nigeria’s Conflict with Biafra and Social Media (July 19, 2021)
by Thomas Wash | PDF On June 2, Twitter (TWTR, $61.72) removed a tweet posted by Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari that vaguely threatened Biafran separatists. Buhari’s tweet appeared to be in response to a series of attacks against Nigerian security forces and police officers. In any case, Buhari has become the latest high-level political leader… Read More »