Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly – The Impact of Older Americans on the Labor Market (August 20, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In analyzing the path for the economy, an important factor is separating the temporary effects of the pandemic from those that are longer lasting. The debate over whether inflation will be transitory is tied to this determination. The impact on the labor markets is another element. One change… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 19, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices remain under pressure as concerns over the Delta virus and seasonal factors press prices lower. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 3.2 mb compared to the 1.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged this week. In the details, U.S. crude oil… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Data and Geopolitics: Part I (August 16, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF For decades now, the post-industrial “information age” has been a key topic of interest for economists, business leaders, financial managers, and investors. All have come to appreciate the implications of silicon-based semiconductors and the opportunities they create for mass data management, storage, communications, and analytics. In recent years, data… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – Intellectual Property Takes Over Fixed Investment (August 13, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF It’s probably no surprise to anyone that information processing has become a bigger and bigger part of the economy over the last several decades. By now, we’ve all gotten used to seeing new kinds of computers and telephones every year, and we’ve struggled with learning new software programs… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 12, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices remain depressed, with $67 acting as support. Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 0.4 mb compared to the 2.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged this week. In the details, U.S. crude oil production rose 0.1 mbpd to 11.3 mbpd. Exports rose… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – August 15, 1971 (August 9, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Next week, we will observe the 50th anniversary of President Nixon’s decision to exit the Bretton Woods agreement. This choice was part of a broader package of policy actions designed to deal with a series of issues, including inflation, unemployment, and a balance of payments problem. As is often the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 6, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In last week’s report, we updated our views on long-duration Treasuries, using our standard 10-year T-note model. This week we are going to examine the impact of policy on long-duration Treasuries. First, let’s start with the model. The two most important variables in the model are fed funds… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 5, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After last week’s recovery, selling has resumed; this week’s data and fears of weaker demand due to COVID-19 are pressuring prices. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 3.6 mb compared to the 3.2 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged this week. In… Read More »