Research & News
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Monetary and fiscal stimulus are expected to help propel the U.S. economy through recovery into expansion over our three-year forecast period. Global central banks have been, and should continue to be, excessively accommodative as the world emerges from lockdowns caused by the pandemic. Inflation numbers may appear stark… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – What Population Aging Means for Global Inflation and Growth (April 19, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF One key worry for investors these days is whether fiscal stimulus, loose monetary policy, and accelerating economic growth will spark runaway inflation. That concern has been a major factor in driving down fixed income prices and boosting bond yields since the start of the year. However, we’ve been arguing… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 16, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In the NBC mockumentary show The Office, the character Jim Halpert gets tricked into choosing his wife, Pam, as “Employee of the Month.” Perplexed and suspicious, coworkers begin to probe into how Jim’s wife was deserving of the award. Pam, who was also surprised, attempts to justify the result,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 15, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After consolidating for a month, prices are starting to move higher. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 5.9 mb compared to the 2.4 mb draw expected. The SPR fell 1.1 mb, meaning without the addition from the reserve, commercial inventories would have declined 7.0… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC): Part IV (April 12, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF This week, we conclude our series on CBDC with market ramifications. Ramifications Money is a seminal good. As our metaphysical discussion examined, economics has tended to avoid forays into the being of money.[1] Accordingly, for the past 150 years, there have been steady changes to the use of money, from… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 9, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF One key worry for investors these days is whether massive fiscal stimulus, loose monetary policy, and accelerating economic growth will spark runaway inflation. That concern has been a major factor in driving down fixed income prices and boosting bond yields since the beginning of the year. However, we’ve been… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 8, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Prices continue to consolidate in a tight range between $62 and $58 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 3.5 mb compared to the 2.0 mb draw expected. There was no change in the SPR. Refinery operations have normalized to pre-Texas freeze levels.… Read More »