Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 12, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Jan Tinbergen was a Dutch economist, the first to win the Nobel Prize for economics[1] for his work on applied dynamic models of economic processes. Perhaps his most important contribution to economic policy is the penning of the Tinbergen Rule, which states that policymakers need an equal number of… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (February 11, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices continue to rise. Crude oil inventories fell 6.6 mb when a draw of 0.8 mb was forecast. The SPR fell 0.2 mb, meaning the draw in commercial inventories was 6.8 mb. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The U.S.-China Balance of Power: Part IV (February 8, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (Note: Due to the Presidents’ Day holiday, our next WGR will be published on February 22.) This multi-part report aims to assess the current balance of power between the U.S. and China and what that implies for how the competition may play out in the coming years. Part I… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 5, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The residential real estate market has made a strong recovery over the past year. Virtually all areas of housing, including home prices, starts, and ownership are showing signs of strength. Let’s start with prices. Home prices have been very strong recently. This chart shows single-family existing home sales. Over… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (February 4, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices broke out of their recent trading range and are now well above $55 per barrel. Commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 1.0 mb when a build of 3.0 mb was forecast. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The U.S.-China Balance of Power: Part III (February 1, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In Part II of this report, we provided a head-to-head comparison of U.S. and Chinese military power. Obviously, military power is the ultimate source of coercion that one country can use to influence others. During non-conflict times, however, countries tend to use less violent means of influence. One of… Read More »