Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (January 14, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices are continuing to march higher. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 3.2 mb, in line with industry forecasts. In the details, U.S. crude oil production was unchanged at 11.0 mbpd. Exports fell 0.6 mbpd, while imports… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The U.S.-China Balance of Power: Part I (January 11, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (Note: Due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, our next WGR will be published on January 25.) We’ve often written in these reports that one of the most important challenges of the 21st century will be the geopolitical tensions generated as China strengthens and comes into ever greater competition… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 8, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Although U.S. equity markets appear richly valued based on historical metrics, relative to interest rates, current values of relative earnings or sales are not extreme. Thus, the direction of interest rates and, more specifically, the direction of monetary policy, is a key element in equity values going forward. In… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 7, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices are moving higher on dollar weakness and the recent OPEC+ decision, discussed below. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 8.0 mb, well below the -1.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged; there is still 3.1… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 18, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF (N.B. Due to the upcoming holiday season, this report will be the last Asset Allocation Weekly for 2020. The next report will be published on January 8, 2021.) While 2020 was a year in which the word “unprecedented” has been used a lot, there are many areas where the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF A note to readers: The Weekly Energy Update will go on holiday hiatus following today’s report and will return on January 7, 2021. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, we want to wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! See… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2021 Geopolitical Outlook (December 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the last report of 2020; the next report will be published on January 11, 2021.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of… Read More »
2021 Outlook: The Recovery Year (December 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary: The economy is in recovery, but the expansion phase of the cycle (where economic output exceeds its prior peak) isn’t likely to begin until 2022. We look for weak first quarter growth followed by more notable strength for the remaining three quarters as the COVID-19 vaccines… Read More »