Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 18, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF (N.B. Due to the upcoming holiday season, this report will be the last Asset Allocation Weekly for 2020. The next report will be published on January 8, 2021.) While 2020 was a year in which the word “unprecedented” has been used a lot, there are many areas where the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF A note to readers: The Weekly Energy Update will go on holiday hiatus following today’s report and will return on January 7, 2021. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, we want to wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! See… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2021 Geopolitical Outlook (December 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the last report of 2020; the next report will be published on January 11, 2021.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of… Read More »
2021 Outlook: The Recovery Year (December 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary: The economy is in recovery, but the expansion phase of the cycle (where economic output exceeds its prior peak) isn’t likely to begin until 2022. We look for weak first quarter growth followed by more notable strength for the remaining three quarters as the COVID-19 vaccines… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 11, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF After peaking at $2,063 in early August, gold prices fell to $1,760 at the end of November. This is a notable decline and, because our asset allocation models have included precious metals since 2018, it makes sense to see if anything has changed. We have several different ways to… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 10, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices are consolidating after the late November rally. Commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly jumped 15.2 mb when a 1.0 mb draw was expected. The SPR fell 0.1 mb; there is still 3.1 mb of storage in… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Disputed Territory of Nagorno-Karabakh: Part II (December 7, 2020)
by Thomas Wash | PDF After a six-week war, Armenia regretfully conceded some of the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh to its longtime rival Azerbaijan. Making matters worse, Armenian President Armen Sarkisyan admitted that he wasn’t even involved in discussions regarding his country’s surrender. As of today, ethnic Armenians have evacuated the conceded regions, while Russian… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 4, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Over the decades, keen observers of the financial markets have developed a number of theories and strategies that serve as useful tools for understanding market dynamics. One of the most famous such tools is the Dow Theory, which explains longer-term market movements based on the writings of Wall Street… Read More »