Research & News
Daily Comment (January 21, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s report begins with Treasury Secretary Yellen’s outlook on inflation. We then turn to a report from the Federal Reserve regarding digital currencies and comment on a few other U.S. economic and policy news items. Next, we discuss details about… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 21, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since troughing in early December, oil prices have been steadily rising due to tightening supplies. We are approaching the highs set in November. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 0.5 mb compared to a 2.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 1.3 mb,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We anticipate that economic growth will continue, but at a more modest pace than last year, and the potential for a recession within our three-year forecast period remains low. The Fed’s prior intransigence on inflation has yielded to a more hawkish stance leading to expectations for the curtailment… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 20, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Treasury yields have moderated, and equity futures are higher. Today’s report begins with a few items from President Biden’s speech yesterday. Next, we discuss U.S. economic and policy news followed by China-related stories. International news follows, and we end with… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 19, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Today, our Comment begins with remarks regarding yesterday’s market volatility. We next provide an update on the tensions at the Russia-Ukraine border. We then cover a few U.S. and international news items that have the potential to affect the financial markets today,… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – What Would a U.S.-China War Look Like? (January 18, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (Note: As we shift to a bi-weekly publication schedule for this report in 2022, we introduce the accompanying Geopolitical Podcast, now available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google) We’ve written extensively about the worsening geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, which… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 18, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with a few remarks on the downdraft this morning in most global financial markets. We next provide an update on Russia’s military buildup along its Ukraine border. We then cover a range of other international news developments. … Read More »
Daily Comment (January 14, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s report begins with President Biden’s Fed picks and additional U.S. economic and policy news. Next, we discuss China’s trade surplus. We then focus on international news, and we conclude with a pandemic update. Economics and policy: The White House… Read More »