Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 9, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Later this month, the European Union will begin auctioning off bonds to facilitate its economic recovery from the pandemic. In all, the EU plans to raise up to €850 billion over the next 5-7 years, with €750 billion still awaiting approval from the European Parliament. If approved, as we… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 8, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The recent dip in prices remains, although we are seeing some recovery. Commercial crude oil inventories rose 0.5 mb when a 1.2 mb decline was expected. The SPR declined 8.8 mb; since peaking at 656.1 mb… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Erdoğan’s Leadership and the Turkey-Greece Dispute: Part II (October 5, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In Part I of this report last week, we took a deep look at Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s perspectives, goals, power, initiatives, and constraints. We examined how his primary aims are to regain Islam’s place in global society, seek redress for the way Islam and Turkey have been… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 2, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg was yet another political shock for 2020 in a year rife with unusual events. The year began with the first official case of COVID-19 in Washington State on January 20. The pandemic and subsequent measures to contain the virus have led to unprecedented… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 1, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The recent dip in prices remains, although we are seeing some recovery. Crude oil inventories fell when a build was expected. Commercial stockpiles declined 2.0 mb compared to forecasts of a 2.0 mb rise. The SPR… Read More »
The Case for Hard Assets: An Update (September 2020)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Background and Summary In this report, we use the term “commodities” to imply “hard assets.” In our definition, the latter is a commodity that requires multiple years to generate a supply response. This definition excludes agricultural commodities, which tend to create a supply response on an annual… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Erdoğan’s Leadership and the Turkey-Greece Dispute: Part I (September 28, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF When talking about international relations, it’s tempting to describe each country as a monolithic, rational decisionmaker with a settled set of concerns, goals, strategies, and tactics. Examples of such descriptions include: China wants to solidify its claim to the South China Sea; Russia is trying to undermine Western democracies;… Read More »