Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Plunging U.S. Service Exports (December 6, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF When people think about a country’s exports, imports, and trade balance, they often focus only on physical goods (sometimes referred to as “commodities” or “merchandise”). That makes some sense, given that physical goods account for the majority of international trade for most countries. Trade in physical goods can also… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 6, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday! Financial markets remain choppy this morning. U.S. equity futures are generally higher, as is oil. Meanwhile, moderate temperatures in the U.S. are sending natural gas prices plunging, with nearest futures off nearly 10%. Inflation data… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 3, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. U.S. equity futures are signaling a higher open. Today’s report begins with U.S. economic and policy news followed by our roundup of China-related stores. International news is next, and we conclude with our pandemic coverage. Economics and policy:… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – An Update on Gold (December 3, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Gold moved steadily higher from the late summer of 2018 into August 2020. Prices then declined toward 1,700 and have since traced out a trading range between 1,700 and 1,900. In this report, we will update our views on the metal. (Source: Barchart.com) We have been holding gold… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 2, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. Although U.S. risk markets are trying to stage a rally, U.S. equity futures are struggling to hold gains. The pattern for the week has been for overnight rallies to fail. It is a bearish pattern, as rallies seem… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 2, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Oil prices fell sharply on SPR sales and due to the Omicron variant of COVID-19. Crude oil inventories fell 0.9 mb compared to a 1.4 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 1.9 mb, meaning the net draw was 2.9 mb (due to rounding). In… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 1, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress yesterday, which contributed to the day’s big pullback in risk assets (which is on track to be at least partly reversed today). We next review a range… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 30, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with highlights from the U.S. labor market, U.S. relations with China and Russia, and a small number of other international developments. However, the bulk of our report deals with the new Omicron variant of the… Read More »