Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 12, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Although gold is the primary precious metal for investors, platinum, palladium and silver also can fulfill that role. Complicating matters is that these three metals are dual-use products. Unlike gold, which has few uses outside of monetary (store of value) purposes and jewelry, these other three have industrial uses as well. About… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (June 11, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market continues to recover after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories surprised the markets again, with stockpiles rising 5.7 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.0 mb draw. The SPR added 2.2 mb this week. In… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the 2020 Election: Part III (June 8, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF In this five-part series on the geopolitics of the 2020 election, we have divided the reports into nine sections. Last week, in Part II, we discussed the second and third sections, understanding the electorate and party coalitions. In this report, we continue our coverage with the fourth and fifth sections,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 5, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed how equity markets, because of their anticipatory nature, tend to bottom in advance of the end of recessions. Assuming that condition continues, if our expectations for a short recession (but probably a long recovery) are correct, it would make sense that the equity market would have already bottomed. … Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (June 4, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market continues to recover after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories surprised the markets for the fourth straight week with stockpiles falling 2.1 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.0 mb build. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the 2020 Election: Part II (June 1, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF In this five-part series on the geopolitics of the 2020 election, we have broken the reports into nine sections. In Part I, we covered the basics of public finance. This week, we will cover the second and third sections, understanding the electorate and party coalitions. Understanding the Electorate Understanding the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 29, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The recent strong rally in equities has befuddled investors—how can equities rally with such vigor when the economy is historically weak? We suspect there are two reasons for this recovery: Although the drop in economic activity is deep, it will likely be short. Supportive monetary policy is a powerful elixir for equities.… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (May 29, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Due to the Memorial Day holiday, the DOE data was delayed until yesterday. Thus, our report was delayed as well. Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market continues to recover after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories surprised the markets for the… Read More »