Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 21, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF One of the relationships we monitor is retail money market levels (RMMKs). In theory, any available liquidity could conceivably end up purchasing equities. But, RMMKs are used by investors in their brokerage accounts and thus are probably “closer” to equities compared to other forms of “near money,” such as… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories fell less than anticipated, declining 1.6 mb compared to forecasts of a 2.9 mb decline. The SPR declined 2.7 mb as… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – An Inflection Point in Lebanon (August 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF On the afternoon of August 4, there was a massive explosion at the Port of Beirut. The explosion was one of the largest non-nuclear blasts in history, a seismic event with a magnitude of 3.3 on the Richter scale. At latest count, 220 have been confirmed dead, 110 are missing,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 14, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Precious metals prices have risen recently, making new highs. This is a monthly chart for the nearest gold futures contract. As the chart shows, we have recently moved above the 2011 highs. In this report, we will discuss two areas that have supported this rise—the prevalence of negative real… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 13, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories fell more than anticipated, declining 4.5 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.7 mb decline. The SPR declined 2.2 mb as… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Evolving U.S. Policy Toward China and Its Impact on Investors (August 10, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Looking forward to the coming years and decades, today’s long-term investors face a stark question: will they be investing in a China-dominated world molded by authoritarian leaders in Beijing? Or, will they be investing in a more familiar, Western-dominated environment reflecting the historic leadership of the U.S. and incorporating… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 7, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Investors often fall into the habit of sloppy thinking about government spending and its relation to the economy. For example, it’s easy to focus only on total government-sector expenditures. According to the White House Office for Management and Budget, total government outlays in the U.S. averaged 32.3% of nominal… Read More »