Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (November 5, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. After dipping below the $37.00/$42.00 range, prices have returned to that band. A key reason is that OPEC+ is considering additional production restrictions. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 8.0 mb when a 2.0 mb build was… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Of Pirates and Computer Hackers (November 2, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF It’s now been more than a quarter century since the first nefarious behavior was observed on the internet. There have been countless news reports about computer hacks, stolen data, ransom scams, misinformation aimed at manipulating elections, and the like. Many of us have had to change our passwords and… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 30, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Many investment managers think of “foreign equities” as one big, monolithic asset class and leave it at that. When setting a portfolio’s asset allocation strategy, many simply assign a certain percentage to the asset class and implement it by investing in a broad international index fund. Here at Confluence,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 29, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices remain rangebound but are testing the lower boundary of the range. Commercial crude oil inventories rose 4.3 mb when a 1.5 mb build was expected. The SPR declined 0.7 mb; since peaking at 656.1 mb… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Election of 1876: Part II (October 26, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Last week, we outlined the history of the presidential election of 1876. This election was disputed and required a special commission to resolve. This week, we will begin with a discussion of our current procedure for electing presidents and the impact of partisanship on the existing environment. We will use… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 23, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The measures adopted to combat the spread of COVID-19 caused one of the most unusual recessions in American economic history. Although all recessions have their own unique characteristics, the recession that began in February was historically deep; it is likely already over too, making it one of the shortest… Read More »