Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rethinking China: Part II (August 3, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF In Part I, we described China’s situation using Japan as a historical analog. This week, we will complete the analogy and examine in some detail the potential motivations of Chinese and U.S. policymakers. As always, we will conclude the discussion with potential market ramifications. China’s Situation Similar to Japan in… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 31, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The pandemic has clearly affected the economy. The decline in economic activity in Q2 will be historic. However, it is still unclear what effects will be temporary and what will be long-lasting. A recent paper suggests that one permanent change may be a reduction in older workers. COVID-19 has… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 30, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell, declining 10.6 mb compared to forecasts of a 1.0 mb rise. The SPR was unchanged this week. In the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rethinking China: Part I (July 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF President and General Secretary Xi Jingping has changed the course of Chinese governance. Deng Xiaoping Peng created a collective leadership model to prevent the rise of another Mao. Leaders were carefully selected and surrounded by leading figures of the various factions of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Term limits… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 24, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In the Federal Reserve’s 107-year history, it has used a number of different methods to manage monetary policy. In its early years, it relied on the discount rate and reserve requirement adjustments as policy tools. During WWII, it managed the yield curve to a specific interest rate to support… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2020)
Letter to Investors | PDF Thus far, the year 2020 has not been one most of us would like to repeat. A pandemic, a sharp and deep recession, social distancing, civil unrest, and political uncertainty have left most people, much less investors, with severe anxieties. I’ve mentioned before that a professional investor is, or should… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories reversed part of last week’s unexpected draw, with stockpiles rising 4.9 mb compared to forecasts of a 0.8 mb draw. The… Read More »