Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the 2020 Election: Part V (June 22, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF This is the final report in our five-part series on the geopolitics of the 2020 election, which was divided into nine sections. This week, we conclude the report by covering the eighth and ninth sections, the base cases for a Trump or Biden win and market ramifications. Read the full report
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 19, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee By now, investors have rightly come around to the idea that the equity market’s strong rebound since late March can be largely ascribed to the aggressive monetary and fiscal policies put in place to counter the coronavirus crisis. The economic downturn from the pandemic lockdown has been severe, pushing unemployment to its… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (June 18, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories were mostly in line with market expectations, with stockpiles rising 1.2 mb compared to forecasts of a 0.8 mb draw. The SPR added… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the 2020 Election: Part IV (June 15, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF In this five-part series on the geopolitics of the 2020 election, we have divided the reports into nine sections. Last week, in Part III, we covered the incidence of establishment policy and the role of social media. This week, we reveal the sixth and seventh sections; we handicap the race… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 12, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Although gold is the primary precious metal for investors, platinum, palladium and silver also can fulfill that role. Complicating matters is that these three metals are dual-use products. Unlike gold, which has few uses outside of monetary (store of value) purposes and jewelry, these other three have industrial uses as well. About… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (June 11, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market continues to recover after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories surprised the markets again, with stockpiles rising 5.7 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.0 mb draw. The SPR added 2.2 mb this week. In… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the 2020 Election: Part III (June 8, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF In this five-part series on the geopolitics of the 2020 election, we have divided the reports into nine sections. Last week, in Part II, we discussed the second and third sections, understanding the electorate and party coalitions. In this report, we continue our coverage with the fourth and fifth sections,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 5, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed how equity markets, because of their anticipatory nature, tend to bottom in advance of the end of recessions. Assuming that condition continues, if our expectations for a short recession (but probably a long recovery) are correct, it would make sense that the equity market would have already bottomed. … Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (June 4, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market continues to recover after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories surprised the markets for the fourth straight week with stockpiles falling 2.1 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.0 mb build. In the details, U.S.… Read More »