Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 5, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed how equity markets, because of their anticipatory nature, tend to bottom in advance of the end of recessions. Assuming that condition continues, if our expectations for a short recession (but probably a long recovery) are correct, it would make sense that the equity market would have already bottomed. … Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (June 4, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market continues to recover after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories surprised the markets for the fourth straight week with stockpiles falling 2.1 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.0 mb build. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the 2020 Election: Part II (June 1, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF In this five-part series on the geopolitics of the 2020 election, we have broken the reports into nine sections. In Part I, we covered the basics of public finance. This week, we will cover the second and third sections, understanding the electorate and party coalitions. Understanding the Electorate Understanding the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 29, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The recent strong rally in equities has befuddled investors—how can equities rally with such vigor when the economy is historically weak? We suspect there are two reasons for this recovery: Although the drop in economic activity is deep, it will likely be short. Supportive monetary policy is a powerful elixir for equities.… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (May 29, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Due to the Memorial Day holiday, the DOE data was delayed until yesterday. Thus, our report was delayed as well. Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market continues to recover after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories surprised the markets for the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 22, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Beginning in the late 1990s and becoming an even bigger issue after Dodd-Frank regulations were imposed following the Great Recession, many market participants worried that bond market liquidity would be absent in the face of a crisis. Strict regulations discouraged banks and brokerage firms from holding large inventories of corporate bonds, thereby… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (May 21, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market continues to show signs of recovery. One interesting development has been in open interest. Open interest is the number of open contracts in a futures market. Most of the time, the highest open interest in… Read More »