Research & News
Daily Comment (October 26, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with developments touching on two of the biggest concerns that investors have these days, China’s debt crisis and high prices for commodities and other goods. We next provide an update to the U.S. fiscal policy… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 25, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday, the last in October. Risk markets are trending higher this morning, with WTI moving over $85 per barrel. Much of the country is being rocked by wild weather. Anyone watching the late NFL game saw… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Here Comes China! (October 25, 2021)
by Thomas Wash | PDF Following President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Transpacific Partnership (TPP) in January 2017, it was believed that the agreement would die a quiet death. However, with the leadership of Japan and Australia, the agreement found new life and the remaining members decided to move forward with the deal. Although the… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 22, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Friday! U.S. equity futures are marking time this morning. The dollar is a bit lower, while gold, crypto, and oil are higher, and Treasury yields are easing. Our coverage begins with economics and policy. The Fed… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – The Inflation Adjustment for Social Security Benefits in 2022 (October 22, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Even for dedicated, successful investors who have built up a substantial nest egg, Social Security retirement and disability investments can be an important part of one’s financial security. For many Americans, Social Security benefits may be the only significant source of income in old age. On average, Social… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Although we expect the recovery’s rapid pace of growth to slow markedly, we believe the probability of a recession within our three-year forecast period is low. Supply shortages, labor issues, and their attendant impact on inflation are expected to abate over the next 12-18 months, leading to our… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 21, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. Risk markets are a bit weaker this morning but are mostly marking time after a strong week thus far. Our coverage starts with the Beige Book and moves on to confirm that Q3 was a soft quarter. Economics… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 21, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF [N.B. Today’s report was delayed one day due to the Columbus/Indigenous Day holiday.] Prices have moved above $80 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 0.4 mb compared to a 2.0 mb build forecast. The SPR declined 1.7 mb, meaning the net… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2021)
Letter to Investors | PDF Before I begin to tap on the keyboard and write these quarterly letters, I always pick up the last few letters to remind myself what I recently wrote. I don’t want to appear ignorant of past comments, nor do I want to ignore a prognostication that proved to be incorrect.… Read More »