Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Schumann in Volgograd (May 11, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA If you ever find yourself in Volgograd, Russia, you will visit Rodina Mat’ Zovyot. It’s unavoidable. The statue, depicting Mother Russia calling her sons to battle against her invaders, is one of the tallest in the world. Standing almost 280 feet high, she is nearly twice as tall as the Statue… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 8, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The U.S. economy has been hit with shelter-in-place orders that have depressed consumption and reduced production. The economic readings on Q2 will be historically bad, perhaps even worse than the Great Depression. However, based on the assumptions that (a) aggressive policy support will continue, and (b) the pandemic will wane over time,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (May 7, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market is showing signs of recovery. Crude oil inventories rose 4.6 mb compared to the forecast rise of 8.0 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.2 mbpd to 11.9 mbpd. Exports rose 0.4… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Revisiting Scheidel’s Horsemen: Part III (May 4, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we discussed Scheidel’s thesis on the events that reverse the normal trend of inequality and used this analysis to frame the COVID-19 pandemic. In Part II, we introduced the equality/ efficiency cycle and discussed the first issue that would be affected by a shift to equality. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 1, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The policy response to COVID-19 has been mostly favorable for gold. Our gold model uses the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the EUR/USD exchange rate, and the real two-year T-note yield. The only variable that has been bearish for gold is the dollar, but the massive… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 30, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market is showing signs of trying to consolidate in the mid-teens. Oil prices continue to be affected by ETPs. The most popular ETP for crude oil, the United States Oil Fund, (USO, 17.91), has changed its… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Revisiting Scheidel’s Horsemen: Part II (April 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I, we introduced Walter Scheidel’s four horsemen and examined the impact of COVID-19 using his framework.[1] This week, we introduce the equality/ efficiency cycle and discuss the first issue that would be affected by the reversal of this cycle. COVID-19 and the Equality/Efficiency Cycle We postulate that economies pass through… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 24, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve, we are watching to see how the disease will affect the economy longer term. Of course, projections of this sort are highly probabilistic; factors could and will likely emerge that could render these projections irrelevant. At the same, ignoring potential long-term consequences of the virus… Read More »