Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (April 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Given the remarkable events of the past week, we are adjusting the usual format of this report. We[1] have been covering energy for over three decades and never imagined that we would see prices for actively traded futures fall into negative territory. The sharp drop in… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (April 2020)
Letter to Investors Today I write this quarterly client letter in the midst of a recession, one that three months ago I did not see coming. As noted in our January letter (and even italicized): We cannot predict the future. I suspect we have proved that by now. Successful long-term investing does not depend on… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Revisiting Scheidel’s Horsemen: Part I (April 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady Although we do cover current events in the Weekly Geopolitical Report, we also try to anticipate changes that may be a consequence of current situations. The COVID-19 crisis is just such an occasion. We regularly update the current path of the virus in our Daily Comment, but we will consider the longer-term… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 17, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Federal Reserve’s aggressive expansion of its balance sheet has been in response to fears of systemic risk. The experience of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis has made it clear that systemic risk can occur from a myriad of different parts of the financial system, so the Fed has broadened its support… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Crude oil inventories rose 19.2 mb compared to the forecast rise of 11.6 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.1 mbpd to 12.3 mbpd. Exports rose 0.6 mbpd, while imports declined 0.2 mbpd. Refining activity fell 6.5%, well more than the 2.2% decline… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 9, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee One of the more controversial issues of the past bull market was the impact of share buybacks. The way we like to frame that issue is with the S&P 500 divisor. The divisor is a number that is used to smooth out the index; when stocks leave the index, through replacement or… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 9, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Crude oil inventories rose 15.2 mb compared to the forecast rise of 9.0 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.6 mbpd to 12.4 mbpd. Exports fell 0.3 mbpd, while imports declined 0.2 mbpd. Refining activity fell 6.7%, well more than the 1.8% decline… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Could the Coronavirus Pandemic Break Up the EU? – Part II (April 6, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA (Note: Due to the Easter holiday, our next report will be published on April 20.) In Part I of this report we examined the history of the European Union (EU), how it works, and the political, economic, and social fissures that had already rendered it unstable when the COVID-19 pandemic took… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 3, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Earlier this year and late last year we recorded a series of podcast episodes that examined the issue of making decisions under conditions of uncertainty. Episode #5 discussed the issue in broad terms, offering a general framework for examining such decisions. In the end, the key to making these decisions comes down… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 2, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Crude oil inventories rose 13.0 mb compared to the forecast rise of 3.5 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production was unchanged at 13.0 mbpd. Exports fell 0.7 mbpd, while imports declined 0.1 mbpd. Refining activity fell 5.0%, well more than the 0.1% decline forecast. … Read More »