Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (January 6, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since troughing in early December, oil prices have been steadily rising due to tightening supplies. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 2.1 mb compared to a 3.4 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 1.3 mb, meaning the net draw was 3.5 mb. In the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 5, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today focuses on international news, including a U.S. victory in its dairy trade dispute with Canada and the latest OPEC+ decision on oil supplies. We also cover several developments related to China’s real estate and technology sectors and a new… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 4, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF We open today’s Comment with a couple of U.S.-related developments, including news that a Russian recently extradited from Switzerland on insider-trading charges may actually have information on the Russian government’s interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. We next review a range… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 3, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with a major new U.S. regulatory initiative and further indications the U.S. and its NATO allies are trying to scare off Russia from any invasion of Ukraine. We next turn to a range of other… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 17, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Note to readers: The Daily Comment will go on holiday after Friday’s comment and return on January 3, 2022. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Good morning! U.S. equity futures… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – What’s Causing the Yield Curve to Flatten? (December 17, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF A note to readers: The Asset Allocation Weekly will go on holiday hiatus following today’s report and return as a bi-weekly publication, now on Mondays, beginning January 10, 2022. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, we wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! See… Read More »
2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails (December 16, 2021)
by Mark Keller, CFA, Bill O’Grady, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Summary: We don’t expect a recession in 2022. Real GDP growth will range between 3.0% to 3.5%. Inflation remains elevated, though price pressures will likely subside in H2 2022. We expect the core PCE deflator, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, to… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 16, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Note to readers: The Daily Comment will go on holiday after Friday’s comment and return on January 3, 2022. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Good morning! So far this… Read More »