Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (March 5, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Crude oil inventories rose 0.8 mb compared to the forecast rise of 3.0 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production rose 0.1 mbpd to a new record of 13.1 mbpd. Exports rose 0.5 mbpd, while imports were unchanged. The inventory build was less than forecast… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of Changing Demographics: Part III (March 2, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA In Part I of this report, we looked at current key global population trends. The report discussed how plunging birth rates have been weighing on population growth and boosting average ages all over the world, with a potentially huge impact on the distribution of geopolitical power, economic prospects and future investment… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 28, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Since the end of the Financial Crisis, there has been a steady deterioration in investment-grade credit quality. This chart shows the percentage of investment-grade bonds rated at BBB. Since late 2018, this portion has represented half of outstanding investment-grade credit. This rating is the lowest end of investment-grade credit, so the dominance… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of Changing Demographics: Part II (February 24, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA In Part I of this report, we looked at current key global population trends. The report showed how plunging birth rates have been weighing on population growth and boosting average ages all over the world, potentially having a huge impact on the distribution of geopolitical power, economic prospects and future investment… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 21, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee In 2017, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed using commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 14, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The data on U.S. residential real estate has been improving in recent months. Housing tends to have an outsized effect on the economy. Not only do housing purchases trigger follow-on buying of consumer durable goods (e.g., furniture and furnishings, etc.) but non-durables as well (e.g., basic household items). A house is an… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of Changing Demographics: Part I (February 10, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA (Note: Due to the President’s Day holiday, our next report will be published on February 24.) In the 1960s and 1970s, people worried a lot about rapid population growth. According to the United Nations, the world’s population was growing at an average annual rate of more than 1.9% during those decades,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 7, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Commerce Department recently released its first iteration of Q4 GDP. The overall growth rate, at 2.1%, was mostly on forecast but the composition of the growth showed some unexpected developments. In this week’s report, we will examine the most interesting changes and what it may be telling us about future economic… Read More »