Research & News
Quarterly Energy Comment (December 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady The Oil Market Since June, oil prices have held mostly within a range of $50 to $60 per barrel. After a sharp decline in prices from late May into early June, due in part to a contra-seasonal build in inventories, inventories fell and oil prices rebounded. Rising tensions with Iran added to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2020 Geopolitical Outlook (December 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA (This is the last report for 2019; the next report will be published January 13, 2020.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 13, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The recent employment report was very strong, with payroll growth rising more than forecast and the unemployment rate declining more than expected. One uncertainty that develops when labor markets tighten is the point at which wage growth begins to lift inflation. This chart shows yearly wage growth and the unemployment rate (inverted… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Ukraine Under Zelensky (December 9, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Because of the congressional impeachment inquiry into President Trump, people are hearing a lot about Ukraine and its new president, Volodymyr Zelensky. However, it’s important to remember that Ukraine and its new leader are significant in their own right. Russia has been keeping Ukraine under intense geopolitical pressure for the last… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 6, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee In 2017, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed using commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Lebanon and its “Revolution of the Millennials” (December 2, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Working at NATO Headquarters in Brussels in the 1990s was a diverse experience: my coworker was Belgian, my boss was British, his boss was French and our secretary was Turkish. But what felt especially exotic were my weekends in eastern Belgium, on the Dutch border, with my Turkish, Egyptian and Lebanese… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 22, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee (NB: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on December 6.) The health of the consumer is critical to the future path of economic growth. For the most part, consumption is accounting for most of the growth in the economy. This chart shows the four-quarter average of the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thirty Years Since the Fall of the Berlin Wall: A Retrospective, Part II (November 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on Dec. 2.) In Part I of this report, we presented the first two of four ideas about the post-Cold War era and how well they fared. This week, we will cover the remaining two ideas and conclude with market ramifications.… Read More »