Research & News
Daily Comment (August 10, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with an update on U.S. policy news, including expectations that the Senate will pass the $1 trillion “hard” infrastructure bill this morning, even as Democrats released details on their proposed follow-on bill covering antipoverty and… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – August 15, 1971 (August 9, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Next week, we will observe the 50th anniversary of President Nixon’s decision to exit the Bretton Woods agreement. This choice was part of a broader package of policy actions designed to deal with a series of issues, including inflation, unemployment, and a balance of payments problem. As is often the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 9, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday. It’s inflation week—the CPI comes out on Wednesday. U.S. equity futures are modestly lower this morning, but the real story is in commodities. Oil and precious metals are tumbling this morning in the face of… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 6, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning, all! U.S. equities appear to be headed for a flat open this morning. We begin with a discussion about the effect the new variant may have on the recovery. Our international news coverage includes escalating tensions between Israel… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 6, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In last week’s report, we updated our views on long-duration Treasuries, using our standard 10-year T-note model. This week we are going to examine the impact of policy on long-duration Treasuries. First, let’s start with the model. The two most important variables in the model are fed funds… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 5, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After last week’s recovery, selling has resumed; this week’s data and fears of weaker demand due to COVID-19 are pressuring prices. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 3.6 mb compared to the 3.2 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged this week. In… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 5, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. Overall, it’s a rather quiet trading day so far. U.S. equity futures are edging higher, although recent market action suggests it may not hold. Our coverage begins with comments from Fed officials who are signaling the end of… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 4, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Today’s Comment opens with just one U.S. issue related to cryptocurrency regulation. We then review a number of foreign items that could impact the financial markets today, including news of another apparent Iranian attack on a ship in the Persian… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 3, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with a review of various U.S. developments related to fiscal policy, the labor market, and the natural gas market. We discuss several international items that could affect the financial markets today. Finally, we take a… Read More »