Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Japan: Will the Tax Hike Bite? Part II (November 4, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Some of Japan’s biggest economic hiccups have started with a major tax hike, so investors are wondering what will happen following a boost in the country’s value-added tax (a type of sales tax) that went into effect early last month. To lay the groundwork for understanding the VAT hike and its… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 1, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee We continue to hold a favorable outlook toward gold despite evidence that current prices may be getting a bit ahead of themselves. Our gold model puts fair value at 1391. In the coming months, we expect the fair value to rise; both the ECB and the Federal Reserve have resumed expanding their… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Japan: Will the Tax Hike Bite? Part I (October 28, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Even though Japan has one of the world’s largest economies and accounts for a hefty share of global stock market capitalization, it isn’t getting nearly as much attention from investors as it did during its boom years in the 1970s and 1980s. In part, that’s because Japan’s economic growth has become… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 25, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee For nearly two years, the energy sector has dramatically underperformed the overall equity market and oil prices. This chart shows our S&P energy sector model. We regress the overall S&P 500 and oil prices against the energy sector. For most of the index’s history, these two variables explained much of the behavior… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the Carter Doctrine: Part II (October 21, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we identified the need to stabilize three areas of the world prone to war in order to maintain global peace. We focused on the Middle East and discussed the development of the Carter Doctrine, examining how the doctrine has been enforced since its inception. In this… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2019)
Letter to Investors I recently had the opportunity to give a talk to a large group of investment advisors, many of whom were longtime friends. Even though we knew each other well, given the times we’re in I felt compelled to begin with a two-part preamble concerning investing that I sometimes give when speaking to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 18, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee In 2017, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed using commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2019)
The U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks are expected to continue their accommodative postures, especially considering issues stemming from trade impediments. While we retain a relatively sanguine view of the U.S. economy over our three-year cyclical forecast period, we recognize there is increased potential for an economic downturn. Each strategy reflects a more neutral… Read More »