Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 17, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The December employment data showed three interesting developments that are worth discussing. They are wage growth, hours worked and the level of “out of the workforce.” Wage growth: For most of last year, production and non-supervisory wage growth was outpacing that of overall workers. This development suggested that ordinary workers were finally… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – After Soleimani (January 13, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, our next report will be published on January 27.) On January 3rd, the U.S. launched a missile strike that killed Major General Qassem Soleimani, the leader of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). As a high-profile commander, his death… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 10, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee In our 2020 Outlook, we discussed three risks to the forecast, with one of them being a “melt-up” or a dramatic rise in stock prices. One of the key factors that could bolster higher prices for risk assets would be the idea that the FOMC has engineered a soft landing, which is… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 20, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee (N.B. This is our last Asset Allocation Weekly for 2019. The next edition will be published January 10, 2020.) Did the Fed engineer a soft landing? That is the critical question for 2020. If the Fed, through its rate cuts last year,[1] has rescued the economy, it would be one of the… Read More »
2020 Outlook: Storm Watch (December 19, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary – The Base Case: Economy grows at 1.5%; consumption has become the primary driver of growth. Expansion continues to set new records for duration; no recession is our base case in 2020, although there are increasing risks of a downturn. Core inflation max is 2.5% next… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (December 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady The Oil Market Since June, oil prices have held mostly within a range of $50 to $60 per barrel. After a sharp decline in prices from late May into early June, due in part to a contra-seasonal build in inventories, inventories fell and oil prices rebounded. Rising tensions with Iran added to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2020 Geopolitical Outlook (December 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA (This is the last report for 2019; the next report will be published January 13, 2020.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 13, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The recent employment report was very strong, with payroll growth rising more than forecast and the unemployment rate declining more than expected. One uncertainty that develops when labor markets tighten is the point at which wage growth begins to lift inflation. This chart shows yearly wage growth and the unemployment rate (inverted… Read More »