Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – On Optimization (March 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady In our discussions of COVID-19, we have noted that part of the reason the virus has been so disruptive is because the world has adopted a stance that optimization is an unalloyed positive. When I was in graduate school, I participated in a seminar with several professional private sector economists. A question… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 20, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee During the recent market tumult, gold has performed rather well, until lately. This chart shows the nearest gold futures contract over the past year. From mid-January, when reports of COVID-19 began to circulate, gold prices marched steadily higher, making an intraday high of $1,704.30. Since then, this has declined by over $250… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 19, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Crude oil inventories rose 2.0 mb compared to the forecast rise of 3.5 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production rose 0.1 mbpd to 13.1 mbpd. Exports rose 1.0 mbpd, while imports rose 0.1 mbpd. The inventory build was less than forecast due to the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Renewed Fighting in Idlib (March 16, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA When financial markets get caught up in a crisis like the ongoing coronavirus panic, one underappreciated risk for investors is that they can get too distracted to notice other, longer-term problems that might be brewing. That’s why we take such a disciplined approach to monitoring geopolitical, economic, social and market events… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (March 16, 2020)
Letter to Investors The last three weeks of financial market turbulence have been among the most harrowing I’ve ever seen. To my memory it’s been a combination of October 1987 and October 2008, two months I’d prefer to forget. While the stock market was dropping sharply and quickly, U.S. Treasury bonds were soaring almost as… Read More »
2020 Outlook Update: Storm Warning (March 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary—High Probability of Recession: The economy is facing three simultaneous problems: A public health crisis—COVID-19 and the economic impact of containing it; An oil price war and a regional economic slump; Rapidly rising financial stress caused by (a) and (b) along with underlying unresolved issues. We estimate… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 13, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Our baseline position has been that the COVID-19 virus would have a significant impact in terms of magnitude but be of limited duration and thus would probably not put the economy into recession. Over the past week, two events have occurred which put this position into question. The first is the oil… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 12, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Crude oil inventories rose 7.7 mb compared to the forecast rise of 1.7 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.1 mbpd to 13.0 mbpd. Exports fell 0.7 mbpd, while imports rose 0.2 mbpd. The inventory build was more than forecast due to falling… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – On Pandemics (March 9, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady Since January, the world has been dealing with the COVID-19 virus, a new coronavirus that has been spreading around the world. Because this situation is still evolving, it is too early to determine the overall impact of this specific virus. We update our views on COVID-19 regularly in our Daily Comment report.… Read More »