Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Storm Before the Calm: A Review (August 30, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF (N.B. Due to the Labor Day holiday, the next report will be published on September 13.) Although we maintain an official reading list with capsule reviews, occasionally we come across a book that we think is important enough to review as a report. George Friedman’s newest book, The Storm Before… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 30, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday, the last one of August. U.S. equity futures are modestly higher this morning after Friday’s rally. Our coverage begins with Hurricane Ida. We then discuss Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, followed by Afghanistan news. Our… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 27, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! U.S. equity futures are signaling a higher open this morning. Our report begins with international news focusing on the two attacks at the Kabul airport on Thursday. We also cover U.S. economics and policy, including details about growing… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly – This Recovery is Different (August 27, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Since the Federal Reserve was granted independence in 1951 there have been 11 recessions. Although each recession and recovery are somewhat unique, analysts tend to compare them for clues about future economic activity and policy actions. In terms of monetary policy, Chair Powell has staked out a dovish… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 26, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. Risk assets are a bit weaker this morning. The Jackson Hole meeting kicks off today. Like last year, it will be virtual. Tomorrow will be the big day when Chair Powell speaks. We start our coverage with the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 26, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After reaching $62 per barrel support, prices have snapped back. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 3.0 mb compared to the 2.0 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged this week. In the details, U.S. crude oil production was steady at 11.4 mbpd. Exports… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 25, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF We open today’s Comment with the latest on Afghanistan, where President Biden has rejected calls to extend the U.S. evacuation effort beyond his August 31 deadline. We then review a range of U.S. domestic developments, followed by some key foreign… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 24, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF In today’s Comment, we begin with the latest developments in Afghanistan. There are disturbing reports that evacuees reaching U.S. facilities in places like Doha are facing horrible conditions. We next review a range of other international and domestic news, including… Read More »