Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Protests in Cuba (July 26, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Over the past two weeks, Cuba has been racked with widespread protests. As this map suggests, the civil unrest was scattered across the island nation. The widespread nature of the protests suggests some degree of coordination (and, it appears there was). Two groups, the San Isidro Movement and the 27N… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2021)
Letter to Investors | PDF Judging by the questions we’ve received in the last couple of months, the stock and bond markets have confused many. This is OK. Trying to explain why the markets have recently done something is an impossible task. In a former life I was regularly asked by business reporters why the… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 26, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday! U.S. equity futures are modestly in the red this morning, taking a rest from recent new highs. Our coverage today begins with China—lots of things going on in markets and geopolitics. From there, we move… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 23, 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The availability of ample investment capital is vital for economic growth in both rich, well-developed countries and poorer developing nations. However, if the available capital is poorly utilized and/or debt levels get too high, the results can be quite negative. In such a situation, economic growth can slow… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 23, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Friday! The Olympics officially open today (although the competition has already started). Sadly, for the organizers, things are not going all that well. The pandemic has led to empty arenas, the opening music has been scrapped… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 22, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning, all! U.S. equity futures were higher, and long-duration interest rates were rising overnight, but comments from the ECB (see below) have pushed equity futures into the red and have lifted bond prices. We are also seeing lots of… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 22, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF The OPEC+ agreement led to a deep selloff in oil prices, but the decline has attracted new buyers. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose 2.1 mb compared to the 4.5 mb draw forecast. The SPR was unchanged this week. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 21, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF In today’s Comment, we begin with a preview of today’s procedural vote in the Senate on the bipartisan “hard” infrastructure bill. We follow that with a range of U.S. and international news, focusing on the increasing regulatory risks facing the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2021)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF There is no recession within our forecast period. Monetary and fiscal stimulus should continue in the U.S. over our three-year forecast period, yet at a decreasing rate as the economy recovers. After a surge in inflation this year and into next year, resulting from the economic recovery following… Read More »