Research & News
Daily Comment (August 14, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! S&P 500 futures are trading sideways as investors process the latest CPI figures. In sports news, the St. Louis Blues made a significant move by submitting offer sheets to Edmonton Oilers’ prospects Broberg and Holloway. Today’s Comment will discuss why… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 13, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the latest forecasts for global oil demand from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including news of a… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 12, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with several items on China’s international relations and domestic economy. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including a statement by a British monetary policymaker calling for… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Is the Sahm Rule Right? (August 12, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF While there has been some speculation that the US economy may be headed for a recession, one indicator suggests it has already begun. The “Sahm Rule,” a widely used metric for determining the early stages of recession, was triggered in July. Created by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 9, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! The S&P 500 is off to a slow start today as investors shrug off yesterday’s rally. In sports news, the US Men’s Basketball team was able to mount a comeback against Serbia in its quest for Olympic gold. Today’s Comment… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 8, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! S&P 500 futures are off to a strong start to the day as data reassured investors that the country is not in recession. In sports news, US Men’s Track and Field athlete Quincy Hall staged a comeback in the 400m… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 7, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! S&P 500 futures are off to a strong start as risk sentiment improves. In sports news, Team USA’s basketball team dominated Brazil, securing their spot in the semifinals against Serbia. Today’s Comment will explore why the market has stabilized since… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 6, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a recap of the wild market swoon around the world on Monday. So far today, the markets have calmed down considerably, and the Japanese equity market regained most of the 12% decline it suffered yesterday. We next… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The US Geopolitical and Economic Bloc as an Investment Region (August 5, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF More than a decade ago, we at Confluence began describing how United States voters have become more reluctant to shoulder the costs of global hegemony. We’ve shown how increased populist isolationism in the US and other Western nations helped embolden Chinese General Secretary Xi, Russian President Putin, and other… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 5, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with an overview of the sharp declines in global financial markets today. Given the recent weak economic data out of the US and the surging value of the yen, the volatility could stay with us in the near… Read More »