Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Return of the Strongman: Part II (October 29, 2018)
by Thomas Wash The populist wave has officially made its way to Brazil. In a blow to the establishment, Brazilian voters have elected former military officer Jair Bolsonaro as president. As Brazil continues to struggle with its recovery from the country’s worst recession in its history, the public has turned its back on the mainstream political… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 26, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee One of the earliest lessons taught in statistics is that “correlation does not equal causality.” Any relationship that exists between two variables usually rests on a myriad of conditions; if any of these conditions change, correlations can break down rapidly. This doesn’t mean that correlation isn’t a useful tool but it show… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Return of the Strongman: Part I (October 22, 2018)
by Thomas Wash On October 7th, Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right populist, made it out of the first round of presidential elections in Brazil in decisive fashion. A controversial figure within his country, Bolsonaro was able to build his popularity on the growing distrust of the government. Rising crime, corruption scandals and a record-breaking recession have led… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 19, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee The accompanying notes to the release of the FOMC minutes on October 17th indicated expectations from a majority of members to eventually push fed fund rates above the level that they would otherwise view as neutral. In the most recent projections, the average of members’ estimates for the neutral level by 2021… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2018)
Letter to Investors Here we are just a little more than three-quarters of the way through 2018. While many might regard this as a rather unusual year for the stock market, it really hasn’t been all that unusual. This is true even though the market is now experiencing its second downturn of greater than 5%… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2018)
The U.S. economy is stable and growing, with sentiment indicators remaining high. A recession is not included in our cyclical forecast. The Fed’s tightening policy has thus far had modest effects. We expect a continuation of increases in the fed funds rate in tandem with a reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet. Though unemployment is… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 12, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Politics is usually an uncomfortable topic for financial market analysts. The subject is fraught with high emotion, and being overly concerned about a specific political outcome can sometimes cloud judgement. At the same time, political trends offer insight into future policy changes that can affect financial market performance. For example, we have… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Dollar Problem: Part II (October 8, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we introduced the characteristics of a reserve currency, including a discussion of the costs and benefits of providing the reserve currency. This week, we will conclude the report with a short explanation of the S.W.I.F.T. network and its importance to international finance. From there, we will discuss the potential competitors to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 5, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee As the unemployment rate declines, there is a worry that wage growth may accelerate and lead to a wage-price spiral, forcing the FOMC to raise rates rapidly. Although possible, the key issue is slack in the labor market. Based on the unemployment rate, there would appear to be little; based on the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Dollar Problem: Part I (October 1, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady In May, the Trump administration exited the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), otherwise known as the Iran nuclear deal.[1] In conjunction with its exit, the U.S. implemented new sanctions and the goal of U.S. policy is to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero barrels by November. The other parties in the agreement,… Read More »